Hurricane Rita

Discussion of the latest Peak Oil news (please also check the Website News area below)

Moderator: Peak Moderation

fishertrop
Posts: 859
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Sheffield

Post by fishertrop »

Tess wrote:And being right is irrelevant if someone with big pockets can move the market far enough so that you have to cover your position.
How does that work then exactly?

Do you mean a large but legitimate trader deliberatly sells to drive the market down - even tho they may have data that would suggest an upside move - as part of a trading strategy, such as to buy a load of undervalued futures, after they have depressed the market?

Won't "being right" help you in the long run? Or do you only get so long (in a big company, I guess) to hold a contrary postion, before your boss starts asking to make changes?

I ask purely for my own interest.
andyh
Posts: 323
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: New Zealand

Post by andyh »

I think what Tess means is that being 'right' about a particular investment ie, accurately predicting that there will be a shortage ox X, or that demand for product Y from company Z, is often not enough for you to make a profit on a particular trade. I have been an active investor for 20 odd years and have lost count of the number of times when I have been right on fundamentals but 'wrong' because some other player(s) with much deeper pockets and a much greater ability to stand the financial pain involved has propelled the market in the opposite direction (albeit temporarily - but temporarily enough to wreck my position, LOL).

Does 'being right in the long run' help? I would like to think so, but in the long run we are all dead. I have made by far the biggest profits in short lived unpredictable spike events (the tech boom of 2000), and yet have had relatively sparse pickings from the recent commodities/oil boom of the past years (notwithstanding being I hope fully up to stream in the 'rightness' of both). Have picked the wrong stocks and got on the 'wrong' side of the market too often, despite being in the 'right' area - but its all good training......
User avatar
skeptik
Posts: 2969
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain

Rita causes worst rig damage

Post by skeptik »

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provid ... ID=5146586

Rita causes worst rig damage

Hurricane Rita has caused more damage to oil rigs than any other storm in history and will force companies to delay drilling for oil in the US and as far away as the Middle East, initial damage assessments show.

ODS-Petrodata, which provides market intelligence to the offshore oil and natural gas industry, said it expected a shortage of rigs in the US Gulf this year.

"Based on what we have right now, it appears that drilling contractors and rig owners took a big hit from Rita," said Tom Marsh of ODS-Petrodata. "The path Katrina took was through the mature areas of the US Gulf where there are mainly oil [production] platforms. Rita came to the west where there is a lot of [exploratory] rig activity."

Ken Sill of Credit Suisse First Boston said: "Early reports indicate numerous rigs are missing, destroyed or have suffered serious damage and several companies have yet to report. Rita may set an all-time record."

The US Coast Guard said nine semisubmersible rigs had broken free from their moorings and were adrift.

This damage could not have come at a worse time for oil companies and consumers. US crude futures on Monday fell 37 cents to $65.45 a barrel in midday trading in New York as refineries that were evacuated before the onset of Rita returned to operation.

Earlier in the day, Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said the market had not taken up the 2m barrels a day of spare capacity the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries offered last week. Speaking in Johannesburg, he blamed high oil prices on a lack of industry infrastructure, including rigs and refineries, rather than oil reserves. Rigs, which are movable and are used for exploration and development, were in short supply before hurricanes Katrina and Rita blew through the US Gulf in late August and September.

High oil prices and the desperate search for new oil supplies needed to meet rampant demand from the US and China have made rigs difficult to find and expensive to hire. Rigs cost $90m-$550m to construct, depending on how sophisticated the structure and how deep the water in which it will drill. A rig ordered today is unlikely to be ready before 2008 or 2009, analysts said.

As a sign of just how precious rigs are becoming to the market, Anadarko, the biggest US independent oil company, this week set a record by committing to a rig six years in advance; commitments in the past were made months ahead of time rather than years.

Initial reports from companies are ominous. Global Santa Fe reported it could not find two of its rigs. Rowan Companies reported four rigs damaged, with two having moved, one losing its "legs" and the fourth presumed sunk. Noble has four rigs adrift, with two run aground one into a ChevronTexaco platform.

Copyright 2005 Financial Times
RevdTess
Posts: 3054
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Glasgow

Post by RevdTess »

andyh wrote:I think what Tess means is that being 'right' about a particular investment ie, accurately predicting that there will be a shortage ox X, or that demand for product Y from company Z, is often not enough for you to make a profit on a particular trade. I have been an active investor for 20 odd years and have lost count of the number of times when I have been right on fundamentals but 'wrong' because some other player(s) with much deeper pockets and a much greater ability to stand the financial pain involved has propelled the market in the opposite direction (albeit temporarily - but temporarily enough to wreck my position, LOL).
Exactly.

Imagine the fundamentals of oil supply and demand are insisting that there are refinery shortages and that gasoline prices must go up, so you buy gasoline. However, another player in the market with deep pockets also knows of the shortages, and also knows that all the speculators (that's you) are betting on the price going up. You might think that they'd join the buying frenzy, but things aren't always that simple. Maybe they are already long and can't buy more at the moment. Maybe they've already made a profit and want to take profits. Maybe they actually believe the price is going down. Maybe they want to change a bullish trend into a bearish one for any number of reasons.

The trick is this: If they have deep enough pockets, they can sell the market and make the price go down just far enough so that all the buyers start losing money beyond their tolerance - i.e. they are 'stopped out'. At this point, the buyers have to sell. And so then the price shoots downwards in a collapse as more and more speculative buyers are unable to hold onto their positions.

Your big seller then turns into a big buyer, and the market reverses. The big player makes money selling at the top, and buying at the bottom. He ends the day where he started, as a net buyer, having made a huge profit and with the price possibly even higher than when he started. All you speculators and investors on the other hand, have been right royally screwed. You provided liquidity and were liquidated. Congratulations.

The next day the market shoots up, as it properly should, according to the fundamentals. You were right! Alas, you're too broke, or too scared, to benefit. You kick yourself and try again, vowing that next time you'll see it coming......

It works the other way too of course. You short the market, thinking that crude is oversupplied, only to discover that a hedge fund is rolling into that contract today, buying up all the offers. They call this a short-squeeze, because all the sellers - the shorts - are squeezed out of the market until only buyers are left, and then the profits are huge and the price plummets, and you want to kill yourself because if ONLY you'd stayed in another few minutes...........
andyh
Posts: 323
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: New Zealand

Post by andyh »

Wow skeptic thats a sobering report, I hadnt heard those sort of details.

Tess - much better put than I managed.
RevdTess
Posts: 3054
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Glasgow

Post by RevdTess »

fishertrop wrote: Won't "being right" help you in the long run? Or do you only get so long (in a big company, I guess) to hold a contrary postion, before your boss starts asking to make changes?
At the end of every day, your position, value-at-risk, P&L and numerous other values are transmitted to bosses and risk managers, and any losing positions have to be rigorously and continuously justified - that is, if you haven't already been stopped out. Discipline is vital when playing for large stakes if you want to keep your job (and by extension, your career) as a trader.
User avatar
mikepepler
Site Admin
Posts: 3096
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Rye, UK
Contact:

Post by mikepepler »

http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0927.htm
Today?s shut-in oil production is 1,512,937 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today?s shut-in gas production is 7.856 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 78.56% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
Anybody else wonder what's going on here? It's several days since Rita passed, and 100% of GOM oil (and 78% of gas) is still offline? I've not been able to check what happened on previous hurricanes - does anyone have some info? I'd assumed that once the weather had calmed down, the oil producers sent staff back to the platforms, and if there was no damage then they could re-open the wells and start production again.

So, am I missing something, or does this mean that Rita has knackered the ~45% of GOM oil production that was left after Katrina?
fishertrop
Posts: 859
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Sheffield

Post by fishertrop »

andyh, tess - many thanks for the explainations, if I learn nothing else today then at least I've learned how that works, big up ya 8)

Two last questions then:
Tess wrote: At the end of every day, your position, value-at-risk, P&L and numerous other values are transmitted to bosses and risk managers, and any losing positions have to be rigorously and continuously justified - that is, if you haven't already been stopped out. Discipline is vital when playing for large stakes if you want to keep your job (and by extension, your career) as a trader.
So this really means that you are not in the game of being "right" but in the game of knowing everyone else's strategies very well and aiming to make money second-guessing them?
Tess wrote:The next day the market shoots up, as it properly should, according to the fundamentals. You were right! Alas, you're too broke, or too scared, to benefit. You kick yourself and try again, vowing that next time you'll see it coming......
But if you were a one-man private trader you could hang on indefintiely until the true fundamentals took over, but not as an institutional trader? (obv the amounts of money in question is quite different!)

Thanks again for the info :!:
fishertrop
Posts: 859
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Sheffield

Post by fishertrop »

mikepepler wrote: So, am I missing something, or does this mean that Rita has knackered the ~45% of GOM oil production that was left after Katrina?
Good question!

Earlier in the thread Chris posted those numbers that show that for the whole of Sept production doesn't even get close to normality for either oil or gas.

On the face of it that looks like a rather long time to be missing that amount of raw product from the market.

It does seem a rather odd situation.
fishertrop
Posts: 859
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Sheffield

Post by fishertrop »

Image
User avatar
mikepepler
Site Admin
Posts: 3096
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Rye, UK
Contact:

Post by mikepepler »

Thanks fishertrop, excellent graph! I guess that sums it up - Katrina already did more damage than Ivan, and Rita has made it worse still. Seems like this supply could be out for a long time. I wonder where this will go now? The aftermath of Ivan pushed prices up and that followed through into this year - what will happen now as we go through a potentially cold winter with even more offline production than last year? Maybe we need another sweepstake post, this time for $100/barrel! :shock:
martinezhockley
Posts: 19
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Spain

Post by martinezhockley »

Don't know if y'all saw this, helps explain alot:
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/034a384e-2f8a- ... 511c8.html
They paved paradise, and put up a parking lot- Joni Mitchell
RevdTess
Posts: 3054
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: Glasgow

Post by RevdTess »

fishertrop wrote: So this really means that you are not in the game of being "right" but in the game of knowing everyone else's strategies very well and aiming to make money second-guessing them?
You do both. A large trading shop will have analysts whose job it is to be 'right', and traders whose job it is to combine market psychology with this correct fundamental point of view.
fishertrop wrote: But if you were a one-man private trader you could hang on indefintiely until the true fundamentals took over, but not as an institutional trader? (obv the amounts of money in question is quite different!)
As an independent you could hold on until you're broke if you like. It's your money after all.

But if you have 50K of capital and you have a position that's lost you 20K with no sign of turning around and conforming to your 'correct' point of view, how long do you keep your faith in your rightness?

Discipline is the way to go. Set your stops & get out if the trade goes against you, rethink the trade, get back in later. Otherwise you'll be a broke ex-trader pretty quick, independent or otherwise....
andyh
Posts: 323
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: New Zealand

Post by andyh »

There is also the basic psychology behind your open position - it gets progressively more and more difficult mentally to keep open a losing trade, let alone what you are actually losing financially. A significant part of investing successfully is secong guessing the market, not necessarily trying to be some sort of messiah who sees trends before others do. Timing is essential in all things, more so in trading than in anything else I can think of. I know few folk who have the gumption to keep a losing position open for months and months and months - I certainly dont and have seldom regretted it.

Some excellent research folks on what is actually going on post the hurricanes well done - might explain the rises we are seing in the price. I note another depression is forming off Belize, could turn into another hurricane.....
andyh
Posts: 323
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Location: New Zealand

Post by andyh »

Some further confirmation:

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Natural-gas output in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake
of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita fell Wednesday. About 80% of daily natural-gas
production was offline, compared to 78.6% on Tuesday, the U.S. Minerals
Management Service said. Fully 100%, or over 1.5 million barrels, of daily oil
production in the region remained offline Wednesday, unchanged from the day
before, the MMS said. October natural gas is at $13.80 per million British
thermal units, up 9.8%. November natural gas hit a record $14.05 and was last at
$14, up 6.7%. November crude is up $1.93, or 3%, at $67 a barrel.
Post Reply