Ukraine Watch...

[Ralphw2]

As usual, not much on line in the early days of a Ukrainian push, but it looks like the action in Kursk is fairly small scale. Ukraine appears to have captured 2 or 3 small settlements in the early surprise attack, but no sign at the moment of following it up with larger numbers of troops or weapons. It is not immediately clear if this is anything more than a token push to remind Trump, or just possibly a diversionary attack in advance of something else.

The feeling i get front the front lines is that both sides are at the extreme ends of cold and exhaustion, and of running low on supplies, and little motivation to move forward across the bright white snow with little in the way of covering fire. Video online of a Ukrainian apc out of ammunition driving round in circles for minutes to mow down Russian soldiers caught out in the open.

[invalid]

As usual, not much on line in the early days of a Ukrainian push, but it looks like the action in Kursk is fairly small scale. Ukraine appears to have captured 2 or 3 small settlements in the early surprise attack, but no sign at the moment of following it up with larger numbers of troops or weapons.

The feeling i get front the front lines is that both sides are at the extreme ends of cold and exhaustion, and of running low on supplies, and little motivation to move forward across the bright white snow with little in the way of covering fire. Video online of a Ukrainian apc out of ammunition driving round in circles for minutes to mow down Russian soldiers caught out in the open.

It's all gone quiet because absolutely nothing was achieved apart from a load more Ukrainian lives and equipment thrown away!

Interesting feeling you've got about the front lines... The Russian advance continues, and many people are saying that Toretsk is all Red now. Chasiv Yar is only a matter of time

[Ralphw2]

At least you now openly gloat about Russian advances, so we know which ideology you prefer. I wish I could say that I was optimistic about the direction the Ukrainian supporting countries were heading, but with Trump taking power and the last vestiges of US democracy falling into the hands of gangsters and psychopaths I suspect Western liberal democracy has been severely wounded, and brutal shortsighted self interest is becoming dominant , as it is in most governmental systems around the world.

I really think the nation state as a concept is well past it's sell by date.

As another of my few remaining family members has died, I find I can view the coming future more dispassionately, as my own blood line rapidly approaches extinction.

As I said months ago, the only person who can win the war for Russia is Trump, and that is still true. What he will chose to do is anyone's guess, He may yet surprise us all, but I am way beyond being vulnerable to a whims of such a feeble human being. Unlike Putin.

[UndercoverElephant]

I really think the nation state as a concept is well past it's sell by date.

Then it will rot on the shelf, because there is nothing it can be replaced with.

[Ralphw2]

So we have reached the new US presidential term, and we await Trump's 'day one' solution to the Russian invasion of UKraine.

On the ground, there is little new news. Ukraine still holds about half of the area of Kursk it did 5 months ago. The city of Povrosk is still fully in Ukrainian hands, although Russian forces are only 2 or 3 miles to the south. Russia is still making some incremental gains. Ukraine is still doing significant damage to Russian oil, gas, chemical and military industry and infrastructure. Russia has not put all the lights out in Kiev. The North Korean soldiers have had minimal impact on the overall situation.

There will be no Gaza style ceasefire. Even if Trump succeeds in getting Putin to call a nominal ceasefire, Ukraine will not stop fighting and bombing. Apart from that, it is hard to see what comes next.

[adam2]

I am pleased to report that another aid convoy has arrived from Poland, including goods sent from the UK via Poland.
Another large supply of shoulder launched anti-tank rockets, these weapons found ineffective against modern tanks, but very useful against light fortifications and buildings.
WW2 type mortar bombs and launchers.
Civil aid consisted largely of generators, portable heating equipment, and hospital linens.
A huge amount of frozen beef from Poland was very welcome for both troops and civilians.

[invalid]

The Russian flag flies over Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainians opted? Not to retreat again, and got encircled.

[Mark]

Yup, that Special Military Operation of yours is going fantastically well....
At this rate you'll be in Kyiv by 2050....

[invalid]

Yup, that Special Military Operation of yours is going fantastically well....
At this rate you'll be in Kyiv by 2050....

Russia winning too slowly again, oh no. Must be awfully upsetting to witness.

Crimean beach party when?

[Ralphw2]

For the first time there is video of a Russian towed artillery, the design of which dates back to 1942, being destroyed in the Kursk offensive. The design was always under powered even in 1942, but could still serve some purpose against infantry targets.

This currently is the record for the age of Russian military equipment in active fighting.

Successful drone attacks on Russian oil refineries , storage, weapons factories and even electricity infrastructure are now almost daily.

The oil slicks from Russian tankers that sank in heavy seas a month ago is now causing serious pollution on the beaches of the Russian occupied parts if the Black Sea. Eventually that will spread to Ukrainian and western shores of the sea. unfortunately.

Russian interest rates are 21% and the real rate of inflation is hard to calculate. It is estimated that the part of the government's financial reserves 'that haven't yet been frozen by sanctions are now almost exhausted. They are increasingly resorting to printing Rubles to keep the war machine turning.

Trump may be empty bluster but sometimes that is all that it takes to make an autocratic regime finally implode. The early mood music is similar to Soviet Russia in 1996.

[invalid]

Trump may be empty bluster but sometimes that is all that it takes to make an autocratic regime finally implode. The early mood music is similar to Soviet Russia in 1996.

You'll have to fill me in on Soviet Russia in 1996?

[Ralphw2]

My memory let me down. 1989 - 1991

[clv101]

Anyone read Alexie Navalny's book Patriot? His is an incredible story and absolutely damning of Russia's post Soviet leadership. It's also deeply sad with regard to the missed opportunity Russia is to its people and the wider world.

[Mark]

Yes, it's so sad.... Russia could be a great country, but they always seem to want/attract a certain type of leader...
Maybe it's a function if Russia's size/geography whereby it feels surrounded by potential hostile enemies....?
Which means that a dictatorial hard man type can always gather sufficient support...

Due to the current situation and his age/health, looks like Putin's time will soon be up....
But who next ??

[BritDownUnder]

The problem for Russia is that they either have vassals or enemies - they don't do allies. They have taken land off so many people and countries they have to sleep with one eye open. The West did not help in the Yeltsin years by allowing the country to be looted and the inevitable result was Putin. In many ways they moved too fast after Perestroika. Should have been a bit more cautious like China but Russia could never have been a China - they didn't have the population or economic critical mass.

They have resources that they have to use for their own military industrial complex and little else.

I say keep wearing them down.