Ukraine Watch...

[Ralphw2]

We also look at this conflict on a global scale. Globally the world can be divided into 4 or 5 camps in relation to this conflict.

The Russian camp is Russia, their vassal Belarus, Iran, SYria, North Korea and a few minor left wing nations scattered around the world in centrel America, Africa etc. Of these only Iran, North Korea, and to a small extent Syria has given any direct military aid to Russia.

Next there are India and China. These are the two most populous nations and are traditionally very much non -aligned in the cold war era, although generally India is more west looking and China pays lip service to its communist roots. Both of these nations have said 'nothing to do with us' publicly, but privately are happy to take cheap Russian exports and turn the odd blind eye to sanctions busting imports, Clearly CHina has told PUtin, "We are still dependent on the West to buy our exports for now. Start throwing tactical nukes and we pull the plug on any trade at all" Russia is now totally dependent on China for ALL of its high tech imports. It is little more than a banana republic in terms of this relationship.

Next we have the major food importers, countries like Egypt, many more in Africa and the middle East, who are utterly dependent on the world food exports to stop their people from starving, and without the finances to outbid countries like the UK when the Ukrainian wheat and oil exports were interrupted by Russia. They are praying for peace

Then there are those countries not directly impacted. They are not taking sides. What they do see is Russia's best export grade military systems come up against Nato cast-off systems and improvised drones, and lose, very very badly. Not a good look for Russia's future arms trade.

Finally, there are almost all of Europe, US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Africa and other countries with close ties to the west. They represent at least half the GDP of the world They have universally imposed major economic sanctions on Russia, they have shut down as much trade as they can with Russia, they have stopped all banking services and frozen all accounts. They have put sanctions on shipping that visits Russia, they have withdrawn all investment , technical personell, technology agreements, etc.etc. Russian oil industry now runs on Western technology. If Ukraine keeps bombing it, they cannot rebuild it.

Russia has shown the world it is a spent force, militarily. All it has left is the half of its soviet era stockpiles that are not already burning in Ukraine, and a population that seems to be willing to die for its country in huge numbers, at least for now.

[clv101]

I agree with most of that Ralph, but there are a couple of paragraphs missing. Russia is in the prime seat for the 21st century in terms of its bio-physical resources; energy, minerals, chemicals, food, water and it will be less negatively impacted by climate change than most of the world. People and politics change, but Russia's future is closely tied to its resources.

China is a huge food importer, the number one importer of soybeans, corn, wheat, rice, and dairy products, they are only some 60% self sufficient and utterly dependent on a globalised food system. This is one of the big checks on China's military aspirations. The government would struggle to survive significant disruptions to food imports.

[Mark]

The other thing to note is Russia's status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
This organisation has got gradually less and less meaningful since WWII, to the point now where it is virtually meaningless...
We need a reset in how the international community is structured ?

[UndercoverElephant]

a population that seems to be willing to die for its country in huge numbers, at least for now.

What alternative do they have? Dissent is not tolerated in Russia.

[UndercoverElephant]

We need a reset in how the international community is structured ?

Yes, and the rest. Even before this war, there was not much left of the post WW2 global order. I think it was doomed the moment Nixon unilaterally destroyed the Bretton-Woods monetary system. That was the initial damage that let the rot in, but it has now spread to the whole system.

Russia is a big problem in its own right, but in some ways the US is an even bigger problem. When the Soviet Union collapsed the US could have taken the opportunity to be the most influential player in a stable new world system. What it actually did was invent "The Project For A New American Century", which was basically a plan for global economic and military domination -- a New American Empire. The Russians have now taken themselves out of the equation as a global player, even though they have such vast resources, but China is now very well placed to become more powerful than the US in the coming decades.

China is ahead of the West in several key respects. If, as I do, you see the future as a choice of paths to Ecocivilisation then China is way ahead of us. Both their political system (post-communist eco-authoritarianism) and religious-philosophical system (Taoism) are better suited to this task than Western democracy and ideological chaos (ie growth based economics vs scientific materialism vs postmodernism, all totally incompatible).

What I am saying is that it isn't just the international system that needs a reset. The core of the problem is the lack of a coherent ideological system in the West.

I have (finally) got to the end of a first draft of a book about all this. Coming out next year.

[Ralphw2]

Population is one of Russia's big weaknesses. They have a rapidly declining population, in part due to the emancipationof women, and the terrible economics of the end of communism, their birth rate crashed and remains well below replacement like most nations. Also, state sanctioned alcoholism , the harsh climate, and poor health services has resulted in a ;ow and declining life expectancy, particularly for men. Finally, the war has directly killed or maimed hundreds of thousands, and triggered mass emigration of as many as a million young, educated, highly economically productive males to avoid being drafted into the war.

If this war had not started in 2022, RUssia would not have the men to start it in 2030

[clv101]

If this war had not started in 2022, RUssia would not have the men to start it in 2030

Yes, this "now or never" logic was/is critical to Russia's recent actions but it goes beyond the demographics.

The majority of Russian equipment - especially the tanks, artillery, and long range bombers are old, dating back to the 70-80s. They are still, just about serviceable, but add another decade or two and all Soviet era equipment will be gone.

Add to that technology, especially AI. This is an absolute game changer on the battlefield and Russia is being left behind. Wait another decade and it risks a situation similar to carvery charges against machine guns.

Worryingly, this now or never issue also applies to Russia's nuclear weapons, if they fear NATO may be getting close to effective interception technology they risk losing what little military strategic power they still have.

[invalid]

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1829 ... DpUxg&s=19

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1829383552615481399

[invalid]

A popular Ukrainian commentator and officer in the army’s reserves, who goes by the online handle Tatarigami, said the breach in the frontline in the Donetsk region was “worsened” by the Kursk offensive, which he said “diverted experienced and motivated brigades, stripping stabilisation reserves and allowing Russian forces to advance rapidly.”

“At the moment, it looks like our front in Donbas has collapsed,” Roman Ponomarenko, a brigade officer at the revered Azov Brigade wrote on Telegram.

“The replenishment received is mostly untrained and does not help; instead, it complicates the combat operations of the units,” Ponomarenko wrote.

In an interview last week with Associated Press, a battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Brigade said that some of the newly mobilised shoulders “don’t want to shoot”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... ovsk-kursk

[Ralphw2]

Let's be clear. The current manpower problems for Ukraine stem from the nine month delay that the government sat on the military request for the next round of mobilisation. This led to raw conscripts being sent to the front lines to plug the gaps after only 6 weeks training. Without the punishment battalion tactics employed by Russia, these recruits understandably fold as soon as the shooting starts for real.

By focusing on a single narrow objective, Russia has been able to exploit this weakness and push towards (but not yet reached) a significant operational target. This is a faster retreat but it is not a rout. Losing the logistics hub will be a set back but it is in no way defeat or the end of the war.

Would the reserves used in Kursk have prevented the loss of the hub (if it happens)? Unknown. They are mobile armoured units of no great value in a defensive role.

This is a war of attrition and Ukraine is getting better at degrading Russia's logistics and infrastructure in Russia itself. I can imagine Putin will take this city and declare victory.

The war will end when every living Russian soldier leaves Ukraine, including Chrimea

[BritDownUnder]

Worryingly, this now or never issue also applies to Russia's nuclear weapons, if they fear NATO may be getting close to effective interception technology they risk losing what little military strategic power they still have.

And of course the Russians are sending their latest missile technology to Ukraine most nights under the NATO radars so they can be detected and studied and effective countermeasures produced.

I am somewhat disappointed that lasers and railguns are not making an appearance.

On the whole I think the Kursk operation is a silly distraction but maybe if enough Russian forces can be neutralised it might just pay dividends.

[invalid]

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-for ... nder-says/

[Potemkin Villager]

China is ahead of the West in several key respects. If, as I do, you see the future as a choice of paths to Ecocivilisation then China is way ahead of us. Both their political system (post-communist eco-authoritarianism) and religious-philosophical system (Taoism) are better suited to this task than Western democracy and ideological chaos (ie growth based economics vs scientific materialism vs postmodernism, all totally incompatible).

I would sound several words of caution about this slightly gushing Sino rhetoric.

Great Leap Forward

Cultural Revolution

Ghost Cities

[UndercoverElephant]

China is ahead of the West in several key respects. If, as I do, you see the future as a choice of paths to Ecocivilisation then China is way ahead of us. Both their political system (post-communist eco-authoritarianism) and religious-philosophical system (Taoism) are better suited to this task than Western democracy and ideological chaos (ie growth based economics vs scientific materialism vs postmodernism, all totally incompatible).

I would sound several words of caution about this slightly gushing Sino rhetoric.

Great Leap Forward

Cultural Revolution

Ghost Cities

It is not remotely gushing. I am talking facts, not judgements. China's authoritarian system already has delivered things that are unimaginable in a democracy. Taoism is already better suited to ecocivilisation than any western ideological system is. And China has already, officially, declared capitalism to not be the final end state of civilisation.

I am not saying their system is perfect, or that the things you have mentioned did not happen. All I am saying is that in these three crucial respects, they have fewer obstacles on the path the ecocivilisation than we do.

[Potemkin Villager]

There may be fewer obstacles on China's path to where they say they want to go but this will not necessarily lead to the desired outcome as previous examples of mass social transformation programmes have very vividly shown. A perusal of any texts on the cult of Mao will show how badly the authoritarian top down approach panned out for the people before. How may million deaths have you in mind this time around?

There is also the added difficulty that the people people will be asked to accept substantially less, than they have become accustomed to, rather than promising more and have to be made to believe that this huge reduction in material comforts is good for them.