Wood Mackenzie, an international energy and life sciences consultancy firm, has undertaken field-by-field research which shows that non-Opec peak oil ? or the point of maximum production of oil ? will not occur before 2014.
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/B ... 7/Article/
Non-OPEC peak not expected until 2014
Moderator: Peak Moderation
2014? Or maybe last year?
Non-OPEC Conventional Crude peaked in 2006
Non-OPEC Conventional Crude peaked in 2006
Tess wrote:PIRA, one of the world's leading energy analyst companies, has called peak on non-OPEC conventional production in 2006, now that Angola has joined OPEC.
Non-OPEC conventional crude/condensate production peaked in 2006. The earlier-thanexpected
peaking was caused by Angola leaving non-OPEC and joining OPEC in January
2007. The share of total non-OPEC production coming from countries already in decline has
reached 47%. Prospects for non-OPEC to replace production lost by Angola's departure appears
unlikely after considering the following: oil controlled by non-OPEC companies is much smaller than
that for OPEC companies, there is limited access to the countries which have the largest reserves, the
degree of utilization of the non-OPEC resource base suggests limited scope for growth. This means
increased reliance on OPEC and non-conventional sources to meet future demand growth
If there is such a wide range of "informed opinions" on the non-OPEC conventional crude peak (2006 to 2014!), then is it any wonder that there is such colourful diversity in the overall oil peak forecasts!
I mean, isn't the non-OPEC conventional crude supposed to be the er... "easiest" bit to calculate?
I mean, isn't the non-OPEC conventional crude supposed to be the er... "easiest" bit to calculate?
Oh and remember that Global Light Sweet Crude Peaked years ago.
Quite - from a macro point of view 8 years makes no difference at all. From a personal point of view it makes quite a lot of difference though.Ballard wrote:What ! is this a wide range?If there is such a wide range of "informed opinions" on the non-OPEC conventional crude peak (2006 to 2014!),
In terms of my lifespan, Western civilisation or anything much else 8 years seems incredibly short to me..
-
kenneal - lagger
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14290
- Joined: 20 Sep 2006, 02:35
- Location: Newbury, Berkshire
- Contact:
From Ali Samsam Bakhtiari quoted in Energy Bulletin last Tuesday
http://www.energybulletin.net/29162.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/29162.html
In a paper delivered to an oil conference in Italy in March 2007, he concluded that in 2006, overall depletion subtracted about 3.5 mb/d of oil extraction from the daily global total of oil output (plus or minus 10%), and that a maximum of 2.5 mb/d of "new" oil production came on line, which includes new and expanded oil fields, as well as new projects in the Canadian tar sands areas. Thus, according to Bakhtiari, in 2006, depletion was greater, by more than 1 mb/d, than new discoveries and reserve growth, including oil produced from unconventional sources such as the tar sands.
Well yes, you're right, 8 years is but a batting of an eyelid!Ballard wrote:What ! is this a wide range?If there is such a wide range of "informed opinions" on the non-OPEC conventional crude peak (2006 to 2014!),
In terms of my lifespan, Western civilisation or anything much else 8 years seems incredibly short to me..
Really the best time frame for all these different varieties and flavours of oil peaks is between "about a year ago" and "sometime in the future"... which is actually rather more scary than knowing that peak oil will definitely occur, say, at 5.15am GMT on the 29th of January, 2017.
-
Kentucky Fried Panda
- Posts: 1743
- Joined: 06 Apr 2007, 13:50
- Location: NW Engerland
The Peak will officially be here when rationing starts, or when an energy related stock market blip/panic kicks off, or when the Iran-US war starts.
There will be a definite marker which will go down in the history books as the "end of the era of cheap energy".
Or the "The Day Our Evil Greedy Ancestors Ran Out Of Road".
There will be a definite marker which will go down in the history books as the "end of the era of cheap energy".
Or the "The Day Our Evil Greedy Ancestors Ran Out Of Road".
-
simonrichards912
- Posts: 76
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
Here's the full press release:
Wood Mackenzie sees non-OPEC peak oil threat receding
Wood Mackenzie sees non-OPEC peak oil threat receding
Seems WoodMac has joined CERA in talking about "capacity" instead of production.Following extensive research, Wood Mackenzie announced today that non-OPEC peak oil, or the point of maximum production of oil, will not occur before 2014.
Disputing views that any pinnacle is within sight, Wood Mackenzie?s in-depth field-by-field research provides evidence that strong supply growth will prevail in the short term. In fact, barring unexpected disruptions to production, total global capacity is forecast to grow steadily from 86.3 million b/d in 2006 to 96.7 million b/d in 2010.
Kate Broughton, Wood Mackenzie?s Head of Oils Research, explained that when global spare production capacity reached a low in 2004, largely driven by unexpectedly high oil demand in China, some observers felt that oil supply was unable to keep pace with demand and would imminently peak.
?Since 2004, however, investment in both non-OPEC and OPEC projects has opened up the spare capacity metric, according to Wood Mackenzie?s latest oil market analysis. This upstream investment has given us a clearer vision of medium term supply growth potential,? she said.
Broughton expects Russia to provide the greatest supply growth in the period 2006-2012, followed by Canadian oil sands production, Brazilian deepwater production, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
The most important projects, in terms of barrels/day (b/d) average addition in 2007, are Azeri Chirag Guneshli in Azerbaijan (255,000 b/d), Buzzard in the UK (140,000 b/d) and the Sakhalin-1 Area in Russia (130,000 b/d). Collectively, the top 25 individual projects which provide greatest non-OPEC growth are expected to add 2.1 million b/d of supply in 2007.
The picture in the Asia Pacific region, unfortunately, is less bullish, with India being the only country here to make it to the list of top 10 contributors to non-OPEC oil/NGL supply growth to 2012. Like Malaysia, Vietnam and New Zealand, the country?s production will likely see growth in the short term, but this will not be enough to reverse the region?s gradual decline in output.
The situation is forecast to deteriorate further in the longer term. Production in the region will decline without exceptional levels of future exploration success, with China?s slide expected to accelerate to 6 percent per annum after 2020. China is the region?s largest oil producer, putting out close to half of the region?s total volume. Overall, Asia Pacific?s contribution to global oil/NGL capacity will likely fall from 9 percent (some 8.0 million b/d) in 2006 to 5 percent (about 5.2 million b/d) in 2025.
?This means that exploration success is critical to Asia Pacific?s long-term oil production outlook,? said Broughton, pointing out that ?yet-to-find? oil production is expected to account for 17 percent of the region?s output in 2020 rising sharply to 28 percent in 2025.
Malaysia is the only country in the region that will buck this long-term trend. It produced about 750,000 b/d in 2006, but is expected to yield 825,000 b/d in 2025.
?In stark contrast to the outlook at the turn of the last decade, when production declines from core legacy fields were a major concern, a series of world-class deepwater discoveries have set the scene for a resurgence in output,? explained Broughton.
She added that Malaysian oil/NGL production beyond 2008 will be heavily determined by deepwater developments. With the 340 million barrel Kikeh and 400 million barrel Gumusut/Kakap fields expected onstream in the next five years, these deepwater oil discoveries will provide a welcome boost to declining legacy production.
?Should exploration success continue, we believe that Malaysia?s output will continue to grow until at least 2015,? she said.
Total world oil/NGL supply is expected to climb until 2025 at least, with expected capacity growth from OPEC countries and the development of unconventional sources such as biofuels, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquid and shale oil more than compensating for the decline from non-OPEC countries that will set in from the middle of the next decade.
?We firmly believe that peak oil is anything but imminent, while recognizing that ground risks do remain. With global oil/NGL production capacity forecast to rise from 88.4 million b/d currently to 103.3 million b/d in 2015, we anticipate that oil consumers may well see some softening of the oil price in the medium term.? However, although supply capacity is forecast to increase further to 110.2 million b/d in 2025, Wood Mackenzie forecasts OPEC?s spare productive capacity will become increasingly tight, with implications for significantly higher prices heading towards 2020.