Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

It is a war of attrition between Russian and NATO, where Russia is losing vast amounts of men and hardware while NATO merely has to keep supplying Ukraine with hardware.

... err ... Ukraine is suffering just a tiddly bit too ...

Ukraine isn't part of NATO. The point is the US gets to destroy Russia's military by proxy, while risking no lives or hardware of its own.

[clv101]

Ukraine isn't part of NATO. The point is the US gets to destroy Russia's military by proxy, while risking no lives or hardware of its own.

Absolutely! If the US objective is to degrade Russia's army, this has been an excellent war from their point of view. The problem now is that Ukraine is totally spent - no more credible fighting force. Russia however still has warm bodies and equipment, in my opinion Russia has basically won the 'war of attrition' and the next six months will see Russian gains and consolidation. The west is still too afraid of escalation to get closer involved - NATO boots, airstrikes or protection in the Black Sea.

[Default0ptions]

And you haven’t explained why Russian cluster bombs are war crimes but Uk or US cluster bombs are fine?

Can you address that little issue ?

Russian cluster bombs have been used almost exclusively on civilian areas on civilians while the Ukrainians intend to use them in Russian held rural areas against Russian troops.

Issue addressed!

But these ‘Russian held rural areas’ are still claimed as part of Ukraine and so inevitably it is Ukrainian civilians who will be killed or maimed by the unexploded munitions.

‘We had to destroy the village in order to save it’

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/worl ... tions.html

Paywall. Brief quote:

“To Push Back Russians, Ukrainians Hit a Village With Cluster Munitions

The New York Times verified that Ukraine’s forces appeared to fire at least two of these internationally banned weapons in a neighborhood, putting Ukrainian civilians at extreme risk.”

The US / NATO has previous form for killing civilians with cluster munitions:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2003/12/12/us- ... reventable

[Default0ptions]

. . . in the case of powerswitch it's probably more to do with the shocking levels of discourtesy members show towards one another. Some of the personal insults traded on here are potentially quite hurtful, and just increase the chances of someone pulling the plug.

I agree completely with you mr brightside and am amazed at the level of vitriol unloaded on anyone advancing any views at odds with the appalling propaganda purveyed by our (western) media. I don’t remember anything like this knee jerk castigation happening to those who were against the Iraq war for example.

I apologise sincerely for any remarks I may have made that could be seen as personally insulting or hurtful to anyone and will endeavour not to do so in the future.

[mr brightside]

. . . in the case of powerswitch it's probably more to do with the shocking levels of discourtesy members show towards one another. Some of the personal insults traded on here are potentially quite hurtful, and just increase the chances of someone pulling the plug.

I agree completely with you mr brightside and am amazed at the level of vitriol unloaded on anyone advancing any views at odds with the appalling propaganda purveyed by our (western) media. I don’t remember anything like this knee jerk castigation happening to those who were against the Iraq war for example.

I apologise sincerely for any remarks I may have made that could be seen as personally insulting or hurtful to anyone and will endeavour not to do so in the future.

I think it would be a good idea to keep this board active, and a prerequisite for this is a good membership collective, preferably a broad church. I think the majority of the public have yet to accept the decline paradigm, and at some stage in the future the penny will drop and they may need some advice on how to rearrange their affairs; which Powerswitch will be able to offer.

On the Ukraine/Russia conflict; i think there's a very fishy smell around it all, which i put down to the presence of a proxy war and geopolitical game playing beyond my understanding. One thing that i think needs to be accepted is Putin's belief that the west wants his country, that is almost certainly his reality and it's making him very paranoid. Arguments over his decision making become mainly irrelevant if you accept that his own personal reality is that he is floating about in a crocodile infested lagoon in a leaky old boat.

[clv101]

On the Ukraine/Russia conflict; i think there's a very fishy smell around it all, which i put down to the presence of a proxy war and geopolitical game playing beyond my understanding.

I think that's very astute. Expect there is way more at play than the media communicate to the public. If history tells us anything, the 'truth' behind conflicts often takes many decades to come out.

[UndercoverElephant]

Western powers are expected to introduce a deal at the UN General Assembly this Autumn, beginning negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Frontline is joined by Robert Fox, defence editor of The Evening Standard who explains what this attempt at world peace could mean for Russia, Ukraine, and the occupied land caught in between

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUunEi3bOwo&t=71s

[Default0ptions]

Ukraine joining NATO this autumn? Well we’ll know by winter if that has happened!

NATO assurances do seem to be pretty worthless though:

“ Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner”

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book ... ders-early

The Telegraph is less sanguine:

“ Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... ng-defeat/

[UndercoverElephant]

The situation on the ground appears to be close to a stalemate, because of the sheer amount of mines laid making it impossible for either side to achieve a breakthrough that can swing the momentum of the war. Neither side wants to settle for what they've got, and neither wants to go through another winter. So various sources have started talking up the prospect of a peace deal brokered by China/Saudi.

I could just about imagine this happening if it wasn't for Crimea. Ukraine might well settle for territorial losses in the Donbas, especially the parts occupied by Russia since 2014. But I cannot see how either side can agree to let the other retain Crimea. It is strategically critical for both. Russia currently occupies it, but cannot reliably keep the Kerch bridge open and cannot reliably provide water in the long term.

I don't see how this ends, but I think we can safely say that the ending will spin on what happens to Crimea.

[RevdTess]

It seems like the last roll of the dice for Ukraine might be if they can obtain F16s to counter the entrenched Russian defences. Otherwise it all depends on both side's manpower and shell capacity if they want to grind on, or the possibility of a Russian coup.

It occurs to me from time to time that I have no knowledge about anything in Ukraine beyond what the media tells me. I tend to follow a few Ukraine youtube channels who seem to get their information from Russian bloggers. Who knows how accurate any of it is.

[Default0ptions]

The situation on the ground appears to be close to a stalemate, because of the sheer amount of mines laid making it impossible for either side to achieve a breakthrough that can swing the momentum of the war. Neither side wants to settle for what they've got, and neither wants to go through another winter. So various sources have started talking up the prospect of a peace deal brokered by China/Saudi.

I could just about imagine this happening if it wasn't for Crimea. Ukraine might well settle for territorial losses in the Donbas, especially the parts occupied by Russia since 2014. But I cannot see how either side can agree to let the other retain Crimea. It is strategically critical for both. Russia currently occupies it, but cannot reliably keep the Kerch bridge open and cannot reliably provide water in the long term.

I don't see how this ends, but I think we can safely say that the ending will spin on what happens to Crimea.

Russia doesn’t want Ukraine. It was only our western media spin that called it a “full scale invasion”. Russia has no interest in a “breakthrough”; it simply wants to hold its line of defence as it announced at the beginning:

“We have been left no other option to protect Russia and our people, but for the one that we will be forced to use today. The situation requires us to take decisive and immediate action. The people’s republics of Donbas turned to Russia with a request for help.

“In this regard, in accordance with Article 51 of Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the approval of the Federation Council of Russia and in pursuance of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance ratified by the Duma on February 22 with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, I decided to launch a special military operation.

“Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the regime in Kyiv for eight years. And for this we will pursue the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.”

This it has largely achieved.

As for Crimea - Russia ain’t going to let that go.

[Ralphw2]

Rude word. It was a full scale invasion with 40 mile military convoys converging on the capital. Russia (by which I mean Putin and his cabal) ABSOLUTELY wanted ALL of Ukraine.

To pretend anything else is to try to rewrite the evidence of your own eyes.

[Default0ptions]

Rude word. It was a full scale invasion with 40 mile military convoys converging on the capital. Russia (by which I mean Putin and his cabal) ABSOLUTELY wanted ALL of Ukraine.

To pretend anything else is to try to rewrite the evidence of your own eyes.

This is indeed the scenario your spin doctor has prescribed.

Why not just look at what he said and what he now has achieved. This is what my eyes see.

[UndercoverElephant]

As for Crimea - Russia ain’t going to let that go.

The price of keeping it may well turn out to be Russia becoming a giant version of North Korea, with a heavily fortified border with NATO running from Crimea to the Arctic. The war will not officially end, and Russia will permanently cease trading with the Western world. It is not clear whether such a situation would be sustainable once Putin has gone, or even how long Putin could survive if that is how the war ends. As Ralph says, the Russians thought they could take the whole of Ukraine, and merely holding on to Crimea is probably not worth the price already paid by Russia, let alone the ongoing price of economic and political isolation. It is going to be very hard for Putin to paint such an outcome as a victory, and I doubt whoever follows him would even try. If the idea was to keep NATO at arms length, it will be a total failure.

And I still don't believe you are English. You are just a very persistent liar.

[UndercoverElephant]

It seems like the last roll of the dice for Ukraine might be if they can obtain F16s to counter the entrenched Russian defences. Otherwise it all depends on both side's manpower and shell capacity if they want to grind on, or the possibility of a Russian coup.

It occurs to me from time to time that I have no knowledge about anything in Ukraine beyond what the media tells me. I tend to follow a few Ukraine youtube channels who seem to get their information from Russian bloggers. Who knows how accurate any of it is.

I don't think Ukraine could get away with serious denial of the reality. There are too many people in Ukraine freely able to post on the internet.