Iran Watch...

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 30 Dec 2017, 10:39

Little John wrote:I'd lay money on it being fomented by outside actors. Namely, the USA and it allies in the region.

You're not alone in thinking that

Moon of Alabama: Iran - Regime change agents hijack economic protests

If this the "regime change" operation I presume, the protests will soon get bigger. When the people need money a few thousand dollars are enough to create a large crowd. Small groups will riot while hiding within the larger protests of maybe genuinely concerned people. The "western" media will engage with their usual pseudo liberal humanism and concern trolling. When the police in Iran tries to arrest those rioters who are raising havoc the media will scream "brutality". Some "martyr" will be created and iconified. Rumors of censorship and suppression will be raised (see Carl Bildt above), fake news will come from everywhere and hundreds of sock puppet Twitter and Facebook accounts will suddenly be "Iranian" and breathlessly report "from the scene" of their Langley offices.

For the Iranian politicians and police the issue is tricky. Economic protests are clearly justified with even Khameni voicing support for the issue. But rioting in the streets must be suppressed before it further escalates and becomes uncontrollable. Weapons on the protesters site firing in all directions may soon become a problem. The Mossad and the MEK are not shy of killing random people.

But the Islamic Republic in Iran has genuine support in large parts of the society. There are big civil organizations that support the government - not on every issue but in its general framework. Most Iranian's are proud nationalists and will be difficult to divide. If this is indeed the "regime change" attempt I suspect, I predict that it will fail.

Post by **adam2** » 31 Dec 2017, 10:02

The protests appear to be increasing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42525889

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 31 Dec 2017, 15:26

Lets get serious folks.... this is ordinary people protesting about economic inflation which is killing the poor.

The idea that it is some CIA operation is daft. Of course, intelligence agencies outside Iran are getting excited about the prospects of widespread civil unrest but they are not the author of these protests.

Post by **adam2** » 01 Jan 2018, 11:38

Various reports now state about 10 dead in the ongoing unrest.

Threats to crack down with "an iron fist", and the loss of lives seems to have done nothing to reduce the protests.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 01 Jan 2018, 18:21

adam2 wrote:Various reports now state about 10 dead in the ongoing unrest.

Threats to crack down with "an iron fist", and the loss of lives seems to have done nothing to reduce the protests.

Will be interesting to watch this one.

Will the unrest spread? The youth of Iran are generally very pissed off with the regime and are not religious thanks to a generation of imposed Islamist policies.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 10 Jan 2018, 21:00

Best article I have read about Iran.

The writer goes into detail to explain why a economic, water, oil and banking crises will lead to the implosion of the Iranian regime over the medium term.

http://www.atimes.com/article/irans-com ... es-regime/

Post by **clv101** » 10 Jan 2018, 23:03

The writer goes into detail to explain why a economic, water, oil and banking crises will lead to the implosion of [most] regime[s] over the medium term."

Is there a Middle East country that doesn't face that quartet of crises over the medium term?

As an aside, why is it referred to as the Iranian regime but we rarely see mention of the German, American, Australian etc regime? Those countries seem to have governments.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 11 Jan 2018, 10:22

clv101 wrote:The writer goes into detail to explain why a economic, water, oil and banking crises will lead to the implosion of [most] regime[s] over the medium term."

Is there a Middle East country that doesn't face that quartet of crises over the medium term?

As an aside, why is it referred to as the Iranian regime but we rarely see mention of the German, American, Australian etc regime? Those countries seem to have governments.

I would have a stab that a regime is something that has come to power in some non-democratic way. Of course democracy is in the eye of the beholder, or in Iran's case, the eye of the guardianship council. From what I understand their presidents are shortlisted by the mullahs then one from the shortlist is elected by the people. For example I think the Guardianship Council will frown upon the Iranian equivalent of Julian Clary and he probably would not make the shortlist.

Early on in their revolution at least one ex-Shah prime minister got bumped off as they were thought to be unsuitable for the job by the turban wearers. The name Shapoor Bhaktiar rings a bell.

I suppose the difference between a regime and a government is that a government could be led by anyone whereas a regime tends to be a bit more selective in who gets to lead it.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 11 Jan 2018, 14:43

Like the EU regime.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 11 Jan 2018, 15:31

fuzzy wrote:Like the EU regime.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 27 Apr 2018, 17:23

Iran video

Just after 10mins, watch the reaction of an interviwee when asked about Iranian and Saudi democracy.

Mr. Fox · Post by **Mr. Fox** » 01 May 2018, 08:50

The UK state-sponsored "propaganda bullhorn" [BBC] are reporting:

Israel's Iran documents show nuclear deal 'was built on lies'

But you only have to scroll past the first four lines and the bullet-points to see why they needed the 'quote marks' in the headline.

As MoA put it:

That was lame. Netanyahoo just finished his show (vid). He claimed that Israel got access to an Iranian archive of its former nuclear program dating from 1999 to 2003. In 2007 a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate found that Iran stopped all nuclear weapon research in 2003 after the U.S. had destroyed Iran's then arch-enemy Iraq. In 2011 the IAEA reported in detail of Iran's former "structured program". It agreed that it had stopped in 2003.

All that Netanyahoo now claims to have acquired is old and known stuff. He refers to an AMAD plan Iran had as if that was some new intelligence. But the IAEA documented AMAD and its development in 2011 (PDF, Annex, page 5). He uses the archive documents with details of well known former programs to declare that Iran has cheated and is not trustworthy. He says that gives Trump reason to disavow the nuclear agreement the U.S. and others had signed with Iran. That is bullshit.

One wonders where the pictures and files Netanyahoo presented are coming from. I have a hunch that these were not obtained in Iran but in Vienna where the IAEA analyzed the former Iranian program from files Iran had handed to it.

I had expected better from a serial liar. Some well forged documents or something more dramatic. This was just nonsense.

My feeling is that this is a diversion from an upcoming military(?) operation against Iran or its assets in Lebanon, Syria or Iraq.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 01 May 2018, 19:35