World heading for 4 degrees warming , and maybe 6 ....

[dmorm]

Apologies if this has been posted. A couple of news items that point toward the need for massive decarbonisation. The PWC report is free but you have to register with their website.

1. PWC : Low Carbon Economy Index 2012
http://www.pwc.co.uk/sustainability-cli ... view.jhtml

"The 2011 rate of improvement in carbon intensity was 0.7%, giving an average rate of decarbonisation of 0.8% a year since 2000. If the world continues to decarbonise at the rate since the turn of the millennium, there will be an emissions gap of approximately 12 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) by 2020, 30 GtCO2 by 2030 and nearly 70 GtCO2 by 2050, as compared to our 2-degree scenario.Even doubling our current rate of decarbonisation, would still lead to emissions consistent with 6 degrees of warming by the end of the century. To give ourselves a more than 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonisation."

2. Kevin Anderson: What They Won't Tell You About Climate Catastrophe
http://www.ecoshock.info/2012/11/kevin- ... l-you.html
"Are the climate deniers right? Are some scientists colluding with government to hide the truth about climate change? "Yes", according to top British scientist Kevin Anderson - but not the scandal you've heard about. Top scientists and government reports won't tell you we are heading toward catastrophic climate change. Emissions are skidding out of control, leading us to a world six degrees Centigrade hotter on average, much faster than anyone thought possible. Why doesn't the public know?

Why are world conferences still talking about staying below 2 degrees, as though that is possible?

In a devastating speech at the University of Bristol Tuesday November 6th, 2012, Professor Kevin Anderson accused too many climate scientists of keeping quiet about the unrealistic assessments put out by governments, and our awful odds of reaching global warming far above the proposed 2 degree safe point."

D

[UndercoverElephant]

Yep. It really is about time the world woke up to this. I personally came to the conclusion about 18 months ago that geo-engineering solutions were now going to required to stand any chance of avoiding a climate catastrophe.

This discussion is currently going on in another thread.

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... highlight=

A six degree rise is not a likely end-point. Once we go above 2 or 3 degrees (which is now unavoidale), the feedback mechanisms are likely to take it beyond six degrees on their own. There will be an enormous "clathrate burp", and that's Game Over for most humans.

[Catweazle]

awful odds of reaching global warming far above the proposed 2 degree safe point."

2 degree safe point ? That's a matter of opinion, or should I say a matter of location. Life could get pretty hard in some places.