Current Gold Price

GlynG · Post by **GlynG** » 28 Jun 2011, 03:07

biffvernon wrote:http://www.channel4.com/programmes/disp ... /episode-1

And you really want to own this stuff?

As a means to an end, yes. Virtually everything modern society buys or uses has consequences and is destructive in some fashion.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 28 Jun 2011, 07:36

biffvernon wrote:http://www.channel4.com/programmes/disp ... /episode-1

And you really want to own this stuff?

Putting your money in banks has consequences as well Biff.

GlynG · Post by **GlynG** » 28 Jun 2011, 08:02

What do people find are the best sites/commentators for gold?

I've kept up with discussions and predictions on Kitco and that Turd site and both had some good information but the people seem a bit fanatical and bullishly unbalanced on gold. Someone recommend http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/ and it seems pretty good and balanced from what little I know/can judge and they're predicting a low in July/August and price rises from then on.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 28 Jun 2011, 08:14

The websites I use are the Telegraph Finance, Marc Fabers interviews (easily googled), Financial Sense and Zero Hedge.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 28 Jun 2011, 16:25

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6 ... z1QaIH6HF2

The system should also make use of gold, Mr Zoellick added. The results of the UBS poll also point to a growing role for bullion, with 6 per cent of reserve managers surveyed saying the biggest change in their reserves over the next decade would be the addition of more gold. In contrast to previous years, none of the managers surveyed was intending to make significant sales of gold in the next decade.

Central banks have bought about 151 tonnes of gold so far this year, led by Russia and Mexico, according to the World Gold Council, and are on track to make their largest annual purchases of bullion since the collapse in 1971 of the Bretton Woods system, which pegged the value of the dollar to gold.

The reserve managers predicted that gold would be the best performing asset class over the next year, citing sovereign defaults as the chief risk to the global economy.

The yellow metal has risen 19.5 per cent in the past year to trade at about $1,500 a troy ounce on Monday, buoyed by the emergence of sovereign debt concerns in the US as well as eurozone debt woes.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 29 Jun 2011, 01:44

biffvernon wrote:http://www.channel4.com/programmes/disp ... /episode-1

And you really want to own this stuff?

Yes.

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 29 Jun 2011, 07:08

See if you can see a patern here

Tulip bulbs
South Sea Company
Florida Real Estate
DotComs

And then Gold

Oxenstierna · Post by **Oxenstierna** » 29 Jun 2011, 07:55

ziggy12345 wrote:See if you can see a patern here

Tulip bulbs
South Sea Company
Florida Real Estate
DotComs

And then Gold

Let me try...

The first four were speculative bubbles that took place over short periods of time in commodities that had, at best, a limited appeal even within their respective economies.

Whereas gold has been a durable, universally recognized and desirable commodity and store of value throughout recorded history.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 29 Jun 2011, 16:37

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/scre ... lver/59850

This report lays out an investment thesis for gold and one for silver. Various factors lead me to conclude that gold is one investment that you can park for the next ten or twenty years, confident that it will perform well. My timing and logic for both entering and finally exiting gold (and silver) as investments are laid out in the full report.

The punch line is this: Gold and silver are not (yet) in bubble territory, and large gains remain, especially if monetary, fiscal, and fundamental supply-and-demand trends remain in play.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 29 Jun 2011, 16:58

Hi UE and fellow goldbugs... I think, what with all the emerging trends leading to a perfect storm soon, that we should do a final emergency collective warning to the general users of PS to buy gold within the next few months as the price may rocket very soon.

What do you think.

The arguments presented above can be used as backup.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Jun 2011, 17:37

It may indeed, but then collapse when folk discover that you can't eat it and several nations decide to sell their stock. There's 60 000 tonnes of the stuff lying idle in government vaults.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 29 Jun 2011, 17:44

Lord Beria3 wrote:Hi UE and fellow goldbugs... I think, what with all the emerging trends leading to a perfect storm soon, that we should do a final emergency collective warning to the general users of PS to buy gold within the next few months as the price may rocket very soon.

What do you think.

I think that if they haven't got the message already then they probably never will.

I bought a kilo of silver last week. Very pretty....

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Jun 2011, 17:51

UndercoverElephant wrote: I bought a kilo of silver last week. Very pretty....

Excellent. Now you were looking for something to do. How about a DIY silver-smithing course? You might end up with something useful like a tea pot, but maybe a few coasters and then an egg-cup would be an easy start.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 29 Jun 2011, 18:05

UE - probably right, not worth it...

The final reason for holding gold, because it may be remonetized, is actually a very big draw for me. While the probability of this coming to pass may be low, the rewards would be very high.

Here are some numbers: The total amount of 'official gold,' or that held by central banks around the world, is 30,684 tonnes, or 987 million troy ounces (MOz). In 2008 the total amount of money stock in the world was roughly $60 trillion.

If the world wanted 100% gold backing of all existing money, then the implied price for an ounce of gold is ($60T/987MOz) = $60,790 per troy ounce.

Clearly that's a silly number (or is it?), but even a 10% partial backing of money yields $6,000 per ounce. The point here is not to bandy about outlandish numbers, but merely to point out that unless a great deal of the world's money stock is destroyed somehow, or a lot more official gold is bought from the market and placed into official hands, backing even a fraction of the world's money supply by gold will result in a far higher number than today's ~$1,500/Oz.

Thats worth about £40,000 per ounce in sterling!!! I personally think that a return to the gold standard will be inevitable, probably after the collapse of the current system.

Should the banking system suffer a systemic breakdown, to which I ascribe a reasonably high probability of greater than 1-in-4 over the next 5 years, I expect banks to close for some period of time. Whether it's two weeks or six months is unimportant; no matter the length of time, I'd prefer to be holding gold than bank deposits.

During a banking holiday, your money will be frozen and left just sitting there, even as everything priced in money (especially imported items) rocket up in price. By the time your money is again available to you, you may find that a large portion of it has been looted by the effects of a collapsing currency. How do you avoid this? Easy; keep some ‘money’ out of the system to spend during an emergency. I always advocate three months of living expenses in cash, but you owe it to yourself to have gold and silver in your possession as well

As for silver, conservatively I think it will go up by ten times, probably more in fact. I wouldn't be surprised if physical silver goes up by over 20 times its current value eventually.

Biff - a DIY course in that would be fascinating, do you have any links?

GlynG · Post by **GlynG** » 29 Jun 2011, 18:19

biffvernon wrote:It may indeed, but then collapse when folk discover that you can't eat it and several nations decide to sell their stock. There's 60 000 tonnes of the stuff lying idle in government vaults.

In a complete collapse (like in the film The Road) I think gold will loose most to all it's value and be pretty useless, yes. Those gold bugs hoarding their bullion and thinking that will be enough to have a high standard of living in the future are somewhat deluded in my opinion.

Banks/nations selling gold en mass is a risk, but I suspect that won't happen for a while yet and that the gold price will go up a lot in the mean time. Over the next few years I plan to bet my (future) farm and life prospects on that chance.

I don't know that we can really Beria - this is a peak oil site, rather than a financial site and though we think we're right, there's still a chance we're wrong. Maybe the best option be to link to Chris's article in your signature so that more people see it if they choose to look?

ziggy12345 - you could also alter the list to:

Tulip bulbs
South Sea Company
Florida Real Estate
DotComs

And then hyperinflatred / quantatively eased Fiat £ or $.