The end of oil.

[RGR]

[RGR]

[quote="John Carll"]

[caspian]

RGR, this is a classic straw-man argument. Only people without a proper understanding of peak oil use the words "running out". In fact, in a number of books on the subject, and many times on this forum, people have pointed out that the issue is NOT that we're "running out", but that flow rates and quality will decrease to such an extent that it'll become too expensive to support the kind of society that we currently live in. Where you and most others on this forum seem to disagree is the timescale over which this is likely to happen.

[2 As and a B]

+1

[RGR]

[quote="caspian"

[Kentucky Fried Panda]

With references, none of which will come from the circular reference brigades so common among the American violin players, accountants, ex-cop pamphleteers, freeze dried food salesmen and theater experts.

Well I kind of know who you're talking about there, these folk have the courage of their convictions and have stood up and said so. You can't say the same. What's the matter, get booted off another forum for trolling?

[Andy Hunt]

Seems like The Oil Drum has got a bit too hot for RGR.

I'm still trying to work out exactly who he is addressing with these beautiful soliloquys, and to what purpose.

[2 As and a B]

He's addressing his own ego.

[RGR]

[quote="

[RGR]

1916, US Bureau of Mines.

"In the exhaustion of its oil lands and with no assured sources of domestic supply in sight, the United States is confronted with a national criss of the first magnitude."

Gorelick, S, 2010, Oil Panics and the Global Crisis, p. 62

And how did this translate into a timeframe? The Director predicted that there was only 27 years left! 27! The inhumanity!

A crisis! No more oil in the US! This is horrible!

And whats REALLY funny? 27 years later, nearly to the year, Secretary Ickes was writing for American magazine the article, "We're Running Out of Oil" in Jan, 1944.

HADN'T HE HEARD! WE HAD ALREADY RUN OUT!!!!

[RGR]

Energy Crisis Alert!!

[Cycloloco]

One of the most interesting aspects of peak oil, to me anyway, is how claims of "running out" in various guises has been going on in 3 different centuries now. These past incidents of "running out" are usually completely ignored by modern peakers intent on pretending that THIS time is different. Of course...THIS time, THEY are involved so it must be different. Most people refer to this as rationalization, which is quite a reasonable characterization, IMHO. And calls up the famous quote, "those who don't know history are destined to repeat it", appropriate credit given to Burke.
......

RGR,
At the time of writing I see you have given us two quotes from the 19th C, one from early 20th C and one from 1974. The first three are amusing but the 1974 quote is an example of cheating. You know as well as we do that 1974 shortage of oil was a result of an embargo by OPEC countries and had nothing to do with peak oil. In fact it triggered energy conservation measures which postponed peak oil.

Addressing your point in the quote above we can argue that the speakers had no knowledge of oil resources all round the world whereas now we have a good idea of global resources because of the efforts of people in your industry. Our estimate of peak flow rates is thus much better than 100 years ago.

No doubt there are more wells to be drilled to find small extra resources of oil but you really ought to tell us if you believe there is any massive reservoir to be found which would alter the current conclusion that we have already passed the peak.

[RGR]

[quote="Cycloloco"]

[RGR]

[Yves75]

Hey, do you know what RGR stands for ?

Reservegrowthrulz apparently, and currently in full attack mode on the oil drum :

http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6989#comments_top