A concern: food productivity

[trimnut2]

There are many quoted figures about food productivity. How much land/ water is required to feed so many people and so on.

I realise that it is difficult to reconcile what techniques etc may still be possible is a future world with less crude oil. That can only involve a good deal of crystal ball gazing on many levels.

However looking at pre-nineteen hundreds agriculture over much of Europe can provide some useful comparisons. I can find nowhere with even a tenth of the assumed productivity many assume to be possible in the less oil future. I simply cannot reconcile the usual stated productivity figures with either my own experience or the conclusions from detailed reading.

Are we being realistic with the figuring and thinking we are considering?

[Keela]

Hi trimnut and welcome.

I think you will find a variety of opinions on this matter. My own opinion is similar to your own. There are just so many places & ways that humans now cultivate that will not be viable in an age with less oil.

So at some time X years in the future the carrying capacity of planet earth will be reduced for the human species. The length of time of X of course gives us some chance to make this transition in a less painful way - PERHAPS?

I find it hard to consider the implications for too long.

[trimnut2]

Keela, Thanks for the welcome and your reply.

I have started a new thread following on from this point.

[snow hope]

Hey trimnut - whereabouts in Australia are you located? It is such a vast continent, what you can grow varies to the extreme dependent on your location as no doubt you are fully aware. I lived in Aus for 1 year a long time ago - Canberra and Adelaide for 6 month each. And we did a few thousand miles in an old Holden, so we had a chance to look around a bit. Great country. But not a lot of rain, especially when you go inland a few hundred miles.

[trimnut2]

snow hope, love the name.

Yep big place and dry. I am about 2 hours south of Sydney in the Southern Highlands. A third of the way to Canberra from Sydney. Can have good rainfall but variable. Generally good growing conditions. I have been here thirty years, growing vegetables commercially and trees for pleasure.

I've owned five holden utes, the last one has done 1,560,000 miles. Often take that ute when going inland. Dreadfully dry inland these days, the Murray-Darling is in real trouble. Part Climate change, Part abuse, part cyclical. Horrible.

[RenewableCandy]

Food scarcity looms in the Grauniad...

It is an image worthy of a Keats poem or a Constable landscape: great orchards bursting with fruit, fields crammed with ripening vegetables and hillsides covered with sheep and cattle.

But this is no dream of long-gone rural glories. It is a vision of the kind of countryside that Britain may need if it is to survive the impact of climate change and higher oil prices, according to leading agricultural experts.

They have warned that only a total revolution in the nation's food industry can save Britain from serious shortages of staples as world oil production peaks, the climate continues to heat up, the population grows and our dietary needs continue to evolve.

Unless, of course, we do the revolution

[Ben]

I can find nowhere with even a tenth of the assumed productivity many assume to be possible in the less oil future. I simply cannot reconcile the usual stated productivity figures with either my own experience or the conclusions from detailed reading.

Are we being realistic with the figuring and thinking we are considering?

Hello all, I've had the same disappointing experience and am getting a bit sceptical about some of the productivity claims! If anyone has some UK figures, or relevant experience, like trimnut, I'd be very interested.

I won't give up though. I've now got hold of a copy of 'How to Grow More Vegetables' (John Jeavons) and will be trying to adopt some of the methods in one area of the garden, including planting very intensively and growing compost crops to enrich the soil.

http://www.DODGY TAX AVOIDERS.com/How-Grow-More-Veg ... 0898157676

The claims in the book are pretty ambitious though: 'Raise enough fresh, healthy, organic vegetables for a family of four on a parcel of land as small as 800 square feet'. Unfortunately I don't live in a research centre in California. I'll let you know how I get on!

[emordnilap]

Hi Ben and welcome to the forum.

Have you read through this? It could be of some use to you.

[Ben]

Hi Ben and welcome to the forum..

Thank you, emordnilap!

Have you read through this? It could be of some use to you.

... scary!

[emordnilap]

Have you read through this? It could be of some use to you.

... scary!

Nah. Easy.

Very, very simple and extremely rewarding in several senses of the word.

[Ben]

Have you read through this? It could be of some use to you.

... scary!

Nah. Easy.

Very, very simple and extremely rewarding in several senses of the word.

Ta, I'll look into it. "My name's Ben and I'm a recovering fecophobic"

[adam2]

The reliance on oil in order to achieve modern yields is certainly worrying, and without plentiful cheap oil I doubt present day yields could be maintained.
We should however be able to do better than farmers of 100/150 years ago, since knowledge and technology has improved, and does not all rely on oil.
1) breeds of crops and animals have improved markedly
2) a century ago, many crops went to waste due to adverse weather, modern weather forecasts, and a telephone or radio to receive the forecasts are not oil intensive.
3) irrigation by wind or solar power is readily available.
4) electric vehicles will partialy replace horses, thus reducing the horse fodder needed compared to 100 years ago.
5) electricity for lighting, water pumping, chopping, cutting, grinding etc increases farm productivity, and eases household work also, giving more time for food production.
6)refrigeration, whilst not increasing production, has the same effect by reducing waste.
7) we now know far more about animal health, and know what causes diseases and how to avoid them.
and finally, for heavy machinery on large farms, a return to steam power has a lot to commend it, for threshing and ploughing.

[contadino]

I'd add one more important one to Adam's list

8.) Farm-sized bio-digesters can be used to produce electricity on farms, meaning a migration to electrical machines is feasible.

[kenneal - lagger]

I'd add one more important one to Adam's list

8.) Farm-sized bio-digesters can be used to produce electricity on farms, meaning a migration to electrical machines is feasible.

They might be in Italy, but they're a lot less efficient in the UK due to lower ambient temperatures.

Try reading the Zero Carbon Britain report from CAT, downloadable at

http://www.zerocarbonbritain.com/content/view/27/48/

[adam2]

I'd add one more important one to Adam's list

8.) Farm-sized bio-digesters can be used to produce electricity on farms, meaning a migration to electrical machines is feasible.

They might be in Italy, but they're a lot less efficient in the UK due to lower ambient temperatures.

Try reading the Zero Carbon Britain report from CAT, downloadable at

http://www.zerocarbonbritain.com/content/view/27/48/

The low temperatures in the UK are not ideal for the operation of bio-digesters, there are however ways around the problem.
If the gas is used to run an engine, then the exhaust or engine coolant can be used to heat the digester.

Alternatively most biodigesters require quite a lot of water, with careful planing, hot waste water can be used, from the shower, washing machine, washing up etc.
On a dairy farm, a lot of hot water is used for cleaning milking equipment etc, this hot water is a usefull input.

Insulation helps also, as does burying the digestor.