PowerSwitch

Hi guys.

I need some advice/opinions from you guys. I think I have a general idea, but I am interested in what you guys think.

My situation is this:

I have a 4 bed house in the south of england, valued currently at 210-215K.

I have 48K to go on this property , and will have 32K to go by end of 2006, 16K by end of 2007 and clear by end 2008. I have already cleared all my secured/personal/CC debt(phew!)

Now given the economic shite storm that is coming , I was considering my options.

One that came to mind was to move nearer to my family in the midlands, (derbyshire). Prices are substantially cheaper, so I could sell up here and get a similiar sized house but WITH A LARGE GARDEN AND CLEAR THE MORTGAGE EVEN EARLIER!

Now the only drawbacks I think of is that even though I am aiming to find a property 6-10 miles outside the main cities (need some distance between me the crowds and the nutters!) I will still be in a village with thousands of people in it. The other draw back is that I am going to have to endure high petrol prices to get to work (until Im booted out anyway), but I should be able to get PT or car share to get around this little problem.

Unforunately I am never ever in a billion years going to be able to afford a farm or a property large enough to be self sufficient. But if I do move ahead with above plan with say a 10000-12000 sq ft garden , I can perhaps suppliment my shite wages (or government rations) with produce from the garden (which I will stock ahead of the shite storm and have plenty of garden sundries in reserve)

What do you guys think? Should I move ? Or am I stiffed anyway?

The way I look at is , in the UK, if we get mad max we are all dead. The place is simply to crowded, complex and interdependant to survive a total breakdown. So the only scenario I should consider preparing is for a hard crunch but with society holding it together.

I would appreciate your views, I am having trouble making my mind up.

Oh one more question, what are the rules on council tax. If in the future myself and my wife were out of work, can the council repossess your house for non payment?

TB

I'd say move nearer to your family.

I'd be inclined to agree with Bandidoz.

I think family and friends will become critical support networks in the future. If you have somewhere with land you will have more scope for honing your self-sufficiency skills, so even if holding on to the property becomes untennable in the long term (overrun with nutters, requisitioned by the government, whatever) you'll have benefitted from it in the meantime.

Also, if you decide to do something more radical in the medium term like emigrating, setting up an intentional community in the Outer Hebrides or whatever, the relative value of a house with land is going to be higher than your current place, as a lot more people will be on the self-sufficiency bandwagon by then.

Regarding council tax - if you're out of work you'll be eligible for council tax benefit so the DSS will pay most of it for you.

Interesting question, which I am sure applies one way or another to many of us....

Well done for clearing your debt! (you lucky bugger )
Don't forget the costs of moving - ?15k? Do you have much of a community where you are now? Have you assessed your current location re PO and decided it is no good?
Depends when you think the SWHTF - I thought your thinking was that it was a good few years away yet?
If you think there is going to be an economic storm (crash) in the next 12 months (which I do) then I suggest you sell and then rent for a while before taking advantage of knocked down prices. But this option presents its own problems - where do you keep all your money if the economy is crashing and inflation and interest rates spiraling? Land (for growing food) will probably retain its value.

If (when) mad max descends we are not all dead imo. We will just need to survive in a different way from now. Maybe you need to live in a smaller village / community or in the countryside with fields around you (easy for me to say in N Ireland) which is out of the way / hidden away. Derbyshire has lots of rural areas doesn't it?

To me security must be in your mind when looking at a new home.
Hope this helps.

snow hope wrote:where do you keep all your money if the economy is crashing and inflation and interest rates spiraling?

Gold.

I don't think you nesseccarily need to move nearer your family, but I think you do need to have some form of community plan for the future (it doesn't matter if they're all people you just met, so long as you can all work together. Not to mention, most arguments are actually with family members....... )

If where you live now isn't high-density "city" life then it might be viable for you to stay put.

Good work with the debts by the way!

Since we can't all live alone out in the fens with 20 acres to live off, I think we have to be realistic.

You can go a long way down the efficency track with just a decent sized conventional garden.

if you move then, IMO, you most realistic option is to move to a village about 10 miles from a place of likely work, where you can work of moulding a community from the locals while still cycling to work and tending the foods in your garden

It's true the further north you go the easier it is to find such villages, but I don't think it's essential.

In a SHTF scenario, such villages usually are near farm land and you can cut a deal with the farmer to get some produce direct (even if you have to pick it yourself!), tho I think you can expect some gov handouts in such an event.

If you can support yourself elsewhere (ie find a 'job' in the short term) then get out of the SE as fast as possible before the rush starts. SE England is way over sustainability by any measure (water & food production to name but two) and may become swamped by 7 million refugees from London walking out.

If you have family or other connections elsewhere (and can get work) then go there, as it might form the nucleus or a way in to your new community - far harder to start as a total stranger (but remember you will need to be within walking distance of your new community)

Don't worry too much about self-sufficiency at this stage - an allotment sized garden can go a long way, and in the longer term you want to become part of a cooperative community anyway. Land may well be re-allocated for different uses in the future (stand up you diggers all)

At the moment it seems possible to sell a house in the SE and pay off a mortgage and buy a mortgage free house in another part of the country, but this seems unlikely to last more than another year.

For those who have ties in the SE (family etc) then a different set of considerations apply...

Joe wrote:

snow hope wrote:where do you keep all your money if the economy is crashing and inflation and interest rates spiraling?

Gold.

Razor blades, electric batteries, any small easily tradeable item that is likely to be hard to get hold of in a crashing situation - see those articles about life in Russia during the 80s & 90s...

many thanks for your responses. Although Im not sure if its help me decide or not

Well done for clearing your debt! (you lucky bugger )

Thanks, since learning of PO it was priority one!!

Don't forget the costs of moving - ?15k? Do you have much of a community where you are now? Have you assessed your current location re PO and decided it is no good?

Yep, although its probably not bad for the initial phases of post peak, its not very good for the more severe circumstances. My current location is near shops, schools, work(via) PT. But, the garden is only 900 sq ft, so during times of no employment there is not enough room to keep me busy and supply at least a little more food(presumably post peak benefits will just be food coupons or summit! )

My moving costs should be around 5K, which I shall absorb with the house price difference of the south and midlands.

Depends when you think the SWHTF - I thought your thinking was that it was a good few years away yet?

I should clarify my position. I think this will happen in phases. The economy will be effected first, 2006 wil see nil-1% growth, then 2007 we start to see nil to -1%, 2008 will see around -2% and so on until demand has dropped below the oil supply and then we will see a scenario of 2 steps forward 3 steps back. This could go on for a couple of decades, depending on the depletion rate.

Recession will lead to a depression , and I think that society will hold until(if) we lose to ability to feed and water ourselves. I think this is decades away ( 2030, or even 2050+). There will be riots and conflict, but I think this will be primarily in the inner-mid cities(more nutter concentrations! )

So i figured if I moved 6-10 miles outside the city(need to still be near work in short term), clear my mortgage and start a garden , then at least I can start to get prepared for the shortages. I can also start to get it together with neighbours who will have similiar plots? Maybe we could even get it together with local farmers to share plant material, knowledge and even maybe some chickens and stuff!!

While the job(s) last I can stock up and put away some cash/or whatever that retains value.

I think this could work out as long as society holds.

If you think there is going to be an economic storm (crash) in the next 12 months (which I do) then I suggest you sell and then rent for a while before taking advantage of knocked down prices. But this option presents its own problems - where do you keep all your money if the economy is crashing and inflation and interest rates spiraling? Land (for growing food) will probably retain its value.

Yeah I thought about that, but then I thought if the housing market crashes then actually moving becomes cheaper becasuse etate agents (bastards) , solicitors and stamp duty all work on percentages. Also it would be cheaper to upgrade to a property with more land IF the market has slumped.

If (when) mad max descends we are not all dead imo. We will just need to survive in a different way from now. Maybe you need to live in a smaller village / community or in the countryside with fields around you (easy for me to say in N Ireland) which is out of the way / hidden away. Derbyshire has lots of rural areas doesn't it?

To be quite honest I do not think it will get 'that bad'. It may feel that way in large towns and cities, but hopefully further out it wont be so bad. I certainly think I will be long dead before resource contrainsts mean the state cannot function (there will still be 35-40 mpd in 2050 according to ASPO)

To me security must be in your mind when looking at a new home.

I know what you mean. But like I say , I cannot afford a place with land in a rural area. This is the dilemna, in the shorter term, work will still be available, but if I go to an isolated location then I am exposed to fuel expense (shortage) and I am away from family who could help each other out.

Hope this helps.

It does, thanks very much!!


As for the council tax, thanks for that. I thought it would be sods law to own the house and then get repoed for non payment of council tax if and when we end up out of work LOL

TB

RogerCO wrote:If you can support yourself elsewhere (ie find a 'job' in the short term) then get out of the SE as fast as possible before the rush starts. SE England is way over sustainability by any measure (water & food production to name but two) and may become swamped by 7 million refugees from London walking out.

If you have family or other connections elsewhere (and can get work) then go there, as it might form the nucleus or a way in to your new community - far harder to start as a total stranger (but remember you will need to be within walking distance of your new community)

Don't worry too much about self-sufficiency at this stage - an allotment sized garden can go a long way, and in the longer term you want to become part of a cooperative community anyway. Land may well be re-allocated for different uses in the future (stand up you diggers all)

At the moment it seems possible to sell a house in the SE and pay off a mortgage and buy a mortgage free house in another part of the country, but this seems unlikely to last more than another year.

For those who have ties in the SE (family etc) then a different set of considerations apply...

Good post , thanks for the response.

I think maybe the SE and midlands differential in house prices will remain for a while yet.

When the unemployment starts to grow, the perception will be that the work is in the SE. This actually maybe the case for a while , but you and I know that it wont be the case in the medium to longer term.

Im looking to move next year or latest year after. I hope I have chosen to do it in time ...... ( )

TB

Just one thing TB, I hope you are right about the slow speed of the crash - your logic seems good, I just don't think it will be nice and slow. But if so I should be allright.
However, I really think it will be faster and that is my really big fear..... once confidence goes, the markets will crash hard imo and once that happens there will be a lot of lay-offs - we will see a big domino effect - the more lay-offs, the less people spend - the more people get laid-off etc, etc. Can I suggest you make plans for it being faster than you anticipate.....

snow hope wrote:Just one thing TB, I hope you are right about the slow speed of the crash. If so I should be allright. But I really think it will be faster and that is my really big fear..... once confidence goes, the markets will crash hard imo and once that happens there will be a lot of lay-offs - we will see a big domino effect - the more lay-offs, the less people spend - the more people get laid-off etc, etc. Can I suggest you make plans for it being faster than you anticipate.....

I understand what you mean, the thing is about the fast crash scenario is we assume that the market will immediatley "get it"

What I mean is, the market is unlikely to realise the full implications of peak oil. That even if they accept at all!

They are more likely to accept more and more implausible reasons why oil prices are high(lack of investment , refinery capacity, lack of exploration etc etc)

Indeed, prices may even backdown for a while once the initial recession starts. This will breed confidence and then once the economy gets going again , we hit the oil supply limit and prices go nuts and so another recession starts. Rinse and repeat a number of times.

The reason why I think this more likely (not 100% sure though ), is because can you imagine:

Oil production peak at say 90 mpd

The price skyrockets, interest rates skyrocket the world economy collapses.

Oil production following year is 88 mpd. Who the hell is consuming it? If the world economy is in the toilet , who the hell is buying the oil? The producers still want to sell it , and need to sell it, so the price goes back down.

So more likely is Peakoil - oil price up - economic contraction - oil price drop - economic growth - oil price back up again - economic contraction. Sort of 2 steps forward then 3 back!

You could be right about the fast crash. But how on earth do I prepare for that? Rural houses with a couple of acres go for 500K+ (land is cheap , but land with a house or planning permission is skyhigh)