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I'll soon be a position where I can start looking to getting on the housing ladder.

If peak oil is imminent, how is this likely to affect both the value of property, and interest rates?

Am I better off sticking with rental, or taking the plunge?

Now could quite possibly be the worst possible time to buy a house. ever.

Please keep an eye on the housing market for a few months and read up on peak oil in the meantime. Make sure you have a really deep understanding of the issues and possible economic impacts before doing anything...

...unless you're after a 1 bedroom flat in Leeds city centre with a stunning cityscape view from the front room, in which case I couldn't recommend a better investment

Peter wrote:I'll soon be a position where I can start looking to getting on the housing ladder.

If peak oil is imminent, how is this likely to affect both the value of property, and interest rates?

Am I better off sticking with rental, or taking the plunge?

If I was in your shoes..

If I did not HAVE to buy, I would not at the moment. Hang back for a while longer and watch the market. It is already in a mild decline. If the decline shows any sign of accellerating, then definitely just wait and watch.

I'm in the middle of the selling of my place right now. The market's starting to cool and I'd agree with Joe. The other reason is practical - in the increasing uncertainty we'll be facing I feel that the last thing anyone needs is the financial and physical weight of a house which severaly limits your ability to respond to unfolding situations.

I think the case for a UK housing market crash (-1% per month for a couple of years) over the next few years is even more compelling than that for peak oil.

Mind you, I'd much rather be living in my own house with the crash comes, then living in someone else's (renting)...

hatchelt wrote:Mind you, I'd much rather be living in my own house with the crash comes, then living in someone else's (renting)...

But if you're a first time buyer it's not your own, it's the banks. I think being a first time buyer today the quickest way to lose your deposit and end up in negative equity.

For god sake do not buy anything now, we are the top of the market!!

Chris (CLV101) sent me a link to UKhousingmarketcrash.com (or something like that) and it had a graph which summed it up perfectly.

Here it is:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

Now if this bugger doesnt put you off nothing will!!!

I am ploughing every penny I have to get rid of the mortgage, luckily my redundancy (when it happens) will just about clear the mortgage.

Hopefully though I can cling on for a couple more years!

Be sure to specifically check out CHARTS PAGE at www.housepricecrash.co.uk before making up your mind.
The news blog is also good for what?s happening regarding jobs, spending and peak oil.

Personally, I?m a FTB holding off for at least 2yrs (till the Mrs finishes uni). At which point we might move back up to Wales to be nearer our families, and see if there?s anything worth picking up at auction.
In the end this might be 3-4yrs...

Peter,
Me and the misses bought a house this time last year. It's the bottom half of a 1934s 3 bed house on the very outskirts of Bristol with big front and back garden. We got it for 82k over 30 years but took out another 10k to do it up. We didn't pay a deposit and have made that 10k back on the current value.
I'm not too worried about a market crash. Both me and the fianc?e have decent jobs (and jobs which should last well into the energy crisis (the misses is PA to a high-up in Mott Macdonalds rail department) and if push came to shove we could channel all our income to paying the mortgage off.
The gardens are "under construction" with regards to growing crops, our water supply could come "off the grid" if needs be, the house is well insulated, etc, etc, so I feel in a half-decent position.
Like I said, certainly wouldn't want to be living in someone else's house should they decide to liquidate their assets when shit starts to hit the fan...but on the other hand, I wouldn't feel comfortable going for a house over 100k which didn't have it's own land or was right in the middle of a city.

That's just my own take on things, take from it what you will!
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I bought in London a just over a year ago. I love my house but am pretty sure it will be the weight around my next. Luckily if all goes wrong I can run back to my parents and scavenge in the woods.

Anyone want a two bed flat with front and side gardens in south London? Or want to rent a room off me?

Totally_Baffled wrote:For god sake do not buy anything now, we are the top of the market!!

Chris (CLV101) sent me a link to UKhousingmarketcrash.com (or something like that) and it had a graph which summed it up perfectly.

Here it is:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

Thanks for the link. It's certainly enough to put me off buying a house in the immediate future.

But I'm also interested in the more long-term view. What are the likely effects of peak oil?

If it means the end of a growth-based economy, then would it still be possible for banks to charge interest (if there's no growth to get the interest from...)?

And if banks started going closing down, then it would be excellent news for mortgage holders(?)

On the other hand, the cash economy could become much more precarious, so owing cash debts like a mortgage could be a very bad idea.

I've got little economic training, so would appreciate the views of people who've got a better grasp of this.

Would a bank legally be allowed to repossess your house if you kept up monthly mortgage payments?? I suppose they could decide to raise interest rates to such a ridiculous amount that nobody could afford repayments, then they could repossess everybodys' homes. Maybe they could recoup the shortfall as a debt? i.e. if you bought it for 80k and it's now worth 40k cos of stupidly high interest-rates (15%?? not long ago), you would owe the bank another 40k. That would probably keep them afloat for the next 20-odd yrs given the level of mortgage lending at present.

Pure speculation, but now I've got myself worried!! Especially after reading that post about long-term debt....

In response to someone from the other housing post about what is good to invest in at present....I'm not recommending anything, but if I had some money to invest I'd probably do a bit of reading round the following......

There may be a massive demand for home-grown food within the next 5-10yrs if not sooner due to increasing transport costs. You could buy acres of fertile farmland and just sit on it and rent it out, maybe to local farmers to start with while you work out how to look after it yourself.

Gold could be ready to go through the roof. Maybe not such a good time to get into it at present after the latest rise, but if there's a correction soon then there may be a temporary dip. Mining stocks are more volatile, but stand to make higher profits if you play them well. Try watching the reports at www.thebulliondesk.com

According to some reports, silver is very under-priced at present. Rather than newly mined silver adding to stockpiles as gold does, silver tends to be consumed in lots of products, from film to electronics to medicinal and even plumbing uses so it's actually much rarer than gold, plus demand is greater than production and has been for years. It's often mined as a by-product from other mines, so when lots of other metals are being prodced, there is a glut of silver and the price drops, which I think is what we've been seeing for a while. Silver is about as low in price now as it's ever been and people like Bill Gates and old Warren have been buying shedloads of it. U can get if for approx ?5.00/ounce at present including the premium but not including VAT. If you were honest, you could import it from the US and then declare it for VAT payment. Some people probably don't declare it, and then don't pay VAT. Naughty naughty.

Some energy companies may stand to profit very well in the short term, but could be very volatile. I don't really know much about this.

Ports on the eatern side of the country could see increased usage in the future if air freight becomes too expensive. Most of the large coastal towns along the eastern side of the country grew up around ports.

Could see what's happening with renewables....wind seems to be big.

Commoditites are doing well at present, but if the oil price slows things down then they might suffer a bit. Food might be a good commodity to invest in, particularly now that US's main port for food exports to the rets of the world is under a puddle of toxic water, and a lot of farmers are deciding to grow less due to oil prices....amount of food production per capita across the world has been falling in recent years and it has been necessary to dip into reserves.

Some good tips on http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/in ... &Itemid=49

I'm not recommending anything, but would try reading a bit around the above things, Im' sure some of them wil be non-starters. e.g. gold might get confiscated, as could land (which technically belongs to the Crown) and silver.

grinu wrote:Would a bank legally be allowed to repossess your house if you kept up monthly mortgage payments??

See a similar thread on that very subject from a while back....

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=531