PowerSwitch

Alright, so I seem to have assimilated just about everything to do with peak-oil over the last few months, have calmed down somewhat and have more or less resigned myself to the fact that it's inevitable. Now, there may be discussions very similar to this elsewhere on the forums, but what kind of situation do you think we (the UK) will be in in 5, 10, 20+ years time? In 2012 I imagine that not a lot will have changed bar green consumerism having reached massive and frankly ludicrous proportions around 2010, but will have soon fizzled out due to people realising-because of an ever-increasing price in petrol, and therefore food as a consequence-they would in fact rather have an extra bag of potatos than a set of energy efficient light-bulbs! Just wanted to get a few ideas banded around about what sort of things are likely to start developing and becoming more apparent on a day-to-day basis regarding the energy diminution, say for the remainder of this year, and then as we go into the next decade or two...Also, how long do people think before the mainstream media catch on to 'peak oil' as a floggable concept a la 'Climate Change'?

Rasputin69: I don't think 'peak oil' is really something to worry about in itself. It's a geological certainty, that's all; regular conventional oil passed its peak of production three years ago - and we're still here.

More worrying is the lack of preparation for shortages, worldwide. We in the west can afford fuel for the foreseeable future, albeit prices will rise continuously barring a total recession, so our shortages will take a long time to come through but come through they will.

What declining fossil fuels actually means is unbelievable millions facing famine, worse than we're ever known. And I don't think we can do anything.

On top of that, I sincerely believe we will see world war three in the next twenty years or maybe even sooner as the major power blocs fight over remaining fossil fuel reserves.

I think that we do not have to worry about peak oil at all. I think when history unfolds itself it will be seen as a relatively benign period. Even just post peak, conservation and taking up the slack in the system will offset the reduction. The real pain will be felt when this period has passed and there is no further ability to reduce, conserve more or take up the slack. The autumnal equinox where the declining rate of change of oil production is accellerating downhill fast will be the most dangerous period. I fear for my children and grandchildren. The world will still be fully populated and no ne knows for sure how bad it will be!

I think the focus for the next few years will be rising prices of food and all forms of energy, along with economic problems. We probably won't see physical shortages in the UK for a while yet.

Peak Oil is of course a factor in the above problems, but for an individual it's only important as a background piece of information to use when making decisions relating to the issues of food, energy, employment, transport, housing, etc. There are other factors too in this rapidly changing world.

mikepepler wrote:There are other factors too in this rapidly changing world.

I read the startling fact that 40% of Americans spend more than they earn. Huh? They'll pull down the world.

emordnilap wrote:

mikepepler wrote:There are other factors too in this rapidly changing world.

I read the startling fact that 40% of Americans spend more than they earn. Huh? They'll pull down the world.

Only 40%???

UK will take note of Peak Oil when the French start complaining about the hoards of refugees from poverty stricken countries in Africa and the near east living along their north coast queueing up to get into Britain. I suspect that they will eventually assist them onto UK bound lorries to get rid of them.

The French will get particularly cross when there are hoards of Brits putting up the cost of their nice cheap property to get away from the hoards of refugees the French are assisting into Britain. There sailors will then go on strike on sailings from UK to ensure one way traffic out of France.

If Grasping Gordon can finally be persuaded that refugees and economic growth aren't necessarily a good thing, we might finally start helping them to make a living at home as a cheaper option than them coming here and putting the UK's working class on the dole.

As RGR said on another thread, "Sarcasm". I know, but Grasping Gordon gets to me that way. I really shouldn't let him.

kenneal wrote:There sailors

The great thing about the British is their disregard for the spelling of their own language. It would not be allowed in France.

In terms of oil production Britain is partly insulated till 2010.
By the middle of the next decade we will be fairly close to being out of oil altogether.

Right now we are facing five main problems.
1. Natural Gas - We need to import it right now
2. The Housing Bubble - This is likely to cripple the economy just as we need investment either privately or by raising taxes
3. Nimbyism blocking solutions to our problems
4. Government itself is causing problems especially planning departments. They are likely to prevent a good deal of solutions getting off the drawing board.
5. Overpopulation

biffvernon wrote:

kenneal wrote:There sailors

The great thing about the British is their disregard for the spelling of their own language. It would not be allowed in France.

Apologies, I don't often get it rong

OK Here goes: a bit of doomer fiction:

2012 my 2p

* We will be in the third year of recession, ever deepening.
* There will be five million unemployed and there will be food riots
* UK will be a net importer of both oil and gas.
* Gas Heating bills will have tripled
* It will be be ?4 per litre of petrol set by government mandate. There are shortages. The world price of tradeable oil per barrel will be $500 per barrel.
* Government official inflation rate will be in the high 20s. The real inflation rate will be closer to 40% per annum.
* Bread will be ?5 a loaf. Milk will be ?10 a litre.
* The government, desperate to stem the flow of funds out of the country will create capital and exchange controls.
* The police will be militarised to quell unrest
* Violence rates will be sky-high. Burglaries and other "petty crimes" will be ignored by police because of the need to keep civil order.
* Petty mafias will spring up to fill the gap left by the police
* The murder rate will skyrocket especially in areas which appear to be wealthy
* Ride-share programs will be mandatory. It will be mandatory to pick up hitchhikers.
* Sabre-rattling between the oil importing countries and the oil exporting countries will have built up to a fever pitch.
* Rolling blackouts as the grid cannot handle the demands put on it as people turn to electricity to make up for the shortfall of liquid fuels and gas based fuels.
* In the brutal winter of 2011 tens of thousands of people died of the cold as Russia shut off gas supplies to Europe for six weeks. During that period people frantically tried to keep warm by pluggin in electric heaters, thus overloading the grid. During that period the London underground is shut down due to it's enormous power consumption. Also, across the country streetlights were shut down and children did not go to school.

Glad you said FICTION!

Dinor wrote:Glad you said FICTION!

I did say fiction but unfortunately I believe this is the optimistic case.

kenneal wrote:UK will take note of Peak Oil when the French start complaining about the hoards of refugees from poverty stricken countries in Africa and the near east living along their north coast queueing up to get into Britain. I suspect that they will eventually assist them onto UK bound lorries to get rid of them.

Keeping in mind that England could not feed itself without imports (there are 9 million too many of us apparently) perhaps the English will be included in the hoards of refugees from poverty stricken countries trying to enter France. France is over twice the size and has a higher proportion of quality agricultural land.

energycity wrote:Keeping in mind that England could not feed itself without imports (there are 9 million too many of us apparently) perhaps the English will be included in the hoards of refugees from poverty stricken countries trying to enter France. France is over twice the size and has a higher proportion of quality agricultural land.

Half my friends have got homes there already.