Future flooding but it doesn't mention food.

[kenneal - lagger]

This report about a paper which talks about flooding of cities and the loss of landmarks such as Buckingham Palace doesn't say anything about how food production will be affected and neither does it say anything about how we are going to import the 50% of our food that we now import through ports which will also be flooded.

The first places to go under water will be the world's river deltas such as most of Bangladesh, the Nile and Mekong deltas and those of the Chinese rivers. These areas provide large amounts of food to those very populous countries and when they are salinated before being overwhelmed they will cause huge shortages of food worldwide. We have seen in past rice shortages that the major rice producing countries shut down exports so that they can feed their own people and keep price and therefore political stability at home. That will happen again and will reverberate around all food markets so countries which import large amounts of food, as the UK does at 50%, will find themselves short of food.

The problems with ports flooding, which is a bit more important than Buck House going under water, will only exacerbate the problem. There will also be the problem of interruptions to world trade world wide rather than just the localised problem of the Suez Canal being blocked which has caused continuing chaos over the last few months. As sea levels rise there would have to be major flood prevention works to stop cities like London going under water but docks like the Port of London and Felixstowe would also have to be protected at vast cost to keep them working. Those works would also slow down trade and add costs as ships would have to go through locks in order to get in and out of the port and this adds time and cost. Eventually the sea level would rise such that much of the time water would have to be pumped out of the lock into the sea to allow access from a higher level sea to a lower level river system again at vast financial and energy cost or the ships would have to sit around and wait for low tide.

The world and its economists, politicians and some scientists still think in terms of monetary value in everything so our problems are couched in financial terms so the loss of high land value cities with their landmarks and offices, high value homes and shops takes precidencec over the low value things like agricultural land which are really of more importance to the human race in absolute terms. If London goes under water you can move the people out and into tents if necessary and they will have lost a lot of money but most will survive. If the world's river deltas go under water those people living in tents will have no food and they will definitely not survive.

One day we will learn this lesson the hard way.

[kenneal - lagger]

Then, of course, there is the problem highlighted by the map in the article but not mentioned of the fact that Dungeness Nuclear Power Station becomes an island four miles out to sea! How do you safely decommission that?

[clv101]

I'm of the opinion that 'global food crisis' will be ~top public concern within five years or so.

See: viewtopic.php?f=51&t=27891

[kenneal - lagger]

Lets just hope so, Chris. And I hope that the concern comes before the shortages so that measures can be put in place such as a rationing system in the UK before the trouble starts.

[clv101]

Seems unlikely! Crisis precedes response.

[adam2]

I rather doubt that we will see significant physical shortages of basic foods in the UK. Except in a TEOTWAWKI situation.
Such products are traded internationally and we as a nation will simply outbid other and poorer countries.
Prices will increase, and this is turn will encourage more UK food production, though I doubt that self sufficiency is possible.

Whilst many people are concerned at hunger in developing countries, I bet that most will be A LOT LESS CONCERNED at increased hunger in far away failed states than they will be about themselves or their family going short.

[Catweazle]

Such products are traded internationally and we as a nation will simply outbid other and poorer countries.

Currently we have a surplus of money, and other countries have a surplus of food - hence the trade. It won't always be that way, soon we will run out of services and profitable assets to sell to the Chinese and our income will drop.

[clv101]

... and we as a nation will simply outbid other and poorer countries.

I admire your confidence in the stability of our relative wealth.

[kenneal - lagger]

When there have been food shortages in the recent past the food producing countries have shut off exports so whether we have money or not makes no difference.

[adam2]

... and we as a nation will simply outbid other and poorer countries.

I admire your confidence in the stability of our relative wealth.

I have reasonable confidence in our relative wealth, or put less cheerfully I expect an appreciable decline in UK wealth, but expect that already poor countries will get even poorer, and that we will still probably be able to outbid them.

It would be most unwise however to rely on this and I believe that the UK as a nation, and individuals should give a higher priority to producing more food.
I expect to see less grazing of livestock on prime land that could grow wheat or other food crops, and more grazing on poorer quality land.

I doubt that the UK could be self sufficient in food, but a reduced reliance on imports would be sensible. I know of someone who purchases flood prone farmland cheaply, for use as Summer grazing, moving the cattle to higher ground in the rainy season. The lush grass and well fed cows were an impressive sight during a drought.

I expect to see more use of uninhabited Scottish islands for sheep grazing, also more productive use use of grouse moors perhaps for sheep grazing, or raising deer for food.

[clv101]

...and that we will still probably be able to outbid them.

Maybe I should say I admire your confidence in the stability of the globalised market system. Personally, I think export bans will be one of the first responses to breadbasket failures. We already saw it with Russia in 2010/11. When the global food system is short, expect significant protectionism and a breakdown of western style free markets.

[Stumuz2]

Personally, I think export bans will be one of the first responses to breadbasket failures. We already saw it with Russia in 2010/11. When the global food system is short, expect significant protectionism and a breakdown of western style free markets.

I would agree with that, we saw how nations became feral with the vaccines rollout. We are seeing it with energy. It will absolutely happen with food, especially the stables such as wheat, corn, etc.