Transition towards Cuba?
Posted: 17 Jul 2005, 10:37
I was just reading the thread 'Possibility of a (really) fast crash' by MacG, in that it was mentioned that:
"When trying to predict the future it can be useful to study historical examples, the problem in our case is that there are none! We (or at least I) dont know of any previous civilisation which has reached the same degree of complexity and myriad of mutual interdependencies as ours."
Now, I'm posting my response to just this part here, so as not to detract from the already interesting conversation going on in that thread.
Now, what I'm saying is that Cuba has gone through a form of oil crisis in the past. It's not a complete cessation of oil, but when the USSR collapsed - the economy started to die as the US wouldn't buy produce (which the USSR had originally bought at a markup price from Cuba, in exchange for oil much of the time).
Cuba has been mentioned briefly by a few people, such as (if you don't mind) - SherryMayo in the 'What happens when the oil runs out...' thread:
"Cuba (also a communist country) reacted differently to the same problem with much more success. I think they privatised collective farms and they encouraged many individual initiatives for food production - especially in the cities (eg by making it easier to get access to spare land in the cities etc for food growing purposes).
Cuba's government has many faults but it did handle its own oil crisis well - it let people get on with growing food without interfering (and encouraged them), and it also did some useful central planning stuff eg breeding up bullocks for pulling ploughs (in part by banning locals from eating beef!). "
What's happening in Cuba at the moment? Well, organic farming is somewhat prevailent due to lack of fertilisers, they are excellent mechanics (due to the need to repair, not replace broken pieces of cars). They often repair these vehicles with very limited resources. Also hitchiking is law due to the lack of fuel (hence why you seem to see lots of open backed trucks crammed with farm workers).
Now I'm not saying that this is a direct representation of what problems the world is going to face, just that it's interesting to see how a small little island has managed to survive with limited amount of fuel and with the inability to export (openly at least) with its biggest neighbour.
"When trying to predict the future it can be useful to study historical examples, the problem in our case is that there are none! We (or at least I) dont know of any previous civilisation which has reached the same degree of complexity and myriad of mutual interdependencies as ours."
Now, I'm posting my response to just this part here, so as not to detract from the already interesting conversation going on in that thread.
Now, what I'm saying is that Cuba has gone through a form of oil crisis in the past. It's not a complete cessation of oil, but when the USSR collapsed - the economy started to die as the US wouldn't buy produce (which the USSR had originally bought at a markup price from Cuba, in exchange for oil much of the time).
Cuba has been mentioned briefly by a few people, such as (if you don't mind) - SherryMayo in the 'What happens when the oil runs out...' thread:
"Cuba (also a communist country) reacted differently to the same problem with much more success. I think they privatised collective farms and they encouraged many individual initiatives for food production - especially in the cities (eg by making it easier to get access to spare land in the cities etc for food growing purposes).
Cuba's government has many faults but it did handle its own oil crisis well - it let people get on with growing food without interfering (and encouraged them), and it also did some useful central planning stuff eg breeding up bullocks for pulling ploughs (in part by banning locals from eating beef!). "
What's happening in Cuba at the moment? Well, organic farming is somewhat prevailent due to lack of fertilisers, they are excellent mechanics (due to the need to repair, not replace broken pieces of cars). They often repair these vehicles with very limited resources. Also hitchiking is law due to the lack of fuel (hence why you seem to see lots of open backed trucks crammed with farm workers).
Now I'm not saying that this is a direct representation of what problems the world is going to face, just that it's interesting to see how a small little island has managed to survive with limited amount of fuel and with the inability to export (openly at least) with its biggest neighbour.