Gas supply crunch

[Vortex2]

QUESTION: Can the UK survive without Norwegian gas?

[adam2]

QUESTION: Can the UK survive without Norwegian gas?

Yes, but only if substantial imports were available from other places such as LNG from the middle east.
In the absence of such alternative supplies then we could of course survive after a fashion, but no question of BAU. A state of emergency would be required with strict prohibitions on gas and electricity use for non essential purposes. And probably a change in the law to exempt wind turbines and PV arrays from planning rules.

[Vortex2]

QUESTION: Can the UK survive without Norwegian gas?

Yes, but only if substantial imports were available from other places such as LNG from the middle east.
In the absence of such alternative supplies then we could of course survive after a fashion, but no question of BAU. A state of emergency would be required with strict prohibitions on gas and electricity use for non essential purposes. And probably a change in the law to exempt wind turbines and PV arrays from planning rules.

Thanks.

It seems that the prime gas supplier of Euroean gas could soon be Norway.
That could be problematic with regard to raw supply - and price.

Also, IIRC years ago Norway said that the UK is NOT guaranteed supplies as other European countries had commited to long term contracts but the UK was only signed up for short contracts.

[clv101]

QUESTION: Can the UK survive without Norwegian gas?

Yes, but only if substantial imports were available from other places such as LNG from the middle east.
In the absence of such alternative supplies then we could of course survive after a fashion, but no question of BAU. A state of emergency would be required with strict prohibitions on gas and electricity use for non essential purposes. And probably a change in the law to exempt wind turbines and PV arrays from planning rules.

Need to check the numbers but I don't think we have the LNG import capacity (and there certainly isn't the spare global export capacity) to replace the pipeline from Norway.

[Vortex2]

On another front, it seems that the gas reservoirs in Europe may not last the winter .. and more importantly they may not be able to deliver gas at a fast enough rate.

[clv101]

Europe's gas reserves are are reasonable state, with suitable conservation, and reasonable weather it might be 'okay'. However, *next* winter might be much worse. It's not clear storage will be refilled.

[Vortex2]

Europe's gas reserves are are reasonable state, with suitable conservation, and reasonable weather it might be 'okay'. However, *next* winter might be much worse. It's not clear storage will be refilled.

It appears that domestic users are failing to conserve ...

[adam2]

QUESTION: Can the UK survive without Norwegian gas?

Yes, but only if substantial imports were available from other places such as LNG from the middle east.
In the absence of such alternative supplies then we could of course survive after a fashion, but no question of BAU. A state of emergency would be required with strict prohibitions on gas and electricity use for non essential purposes. And probably a change in the law to exempt wind turbines and PV arrays from planning rules.

Need to check the numbers but I don't think we have the LNG import capacity (and there certainly isn't the spare global export capacity) to replace the pipeline from Norway.

Agreed, I should perhaps have said "Yes but only if substantial imports AND THE INFRASTRUCTURE TO HANDLE THOSE IMPORTS was available"
And anyway as you point out there is almost certainly not the export capacity.

[adam2]

And nearer home, this report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574
Suggests a "significant risk" of a UK gas supply shortage in the coming winter. That is one of the most doomerish OFFICIAL reports that I recall.

As well as gas shortages resulting in power cuts, the report notes the risk of insolvencies amongst operators of gas fired power stations.

[anotherexlurker]

Europe's gas reserves are are reasonable state, with suitable conservation, and reasonable weather it might be 'okay'. However, *next* winter might be much worse. It's not clear storage will be refilled.

That has been my concern since the pipeline "incidents" , from memory none of the European countries gas storage was filled to 100% (think it was average of 80-90%) even with some Russian gas coming via Nord Stream 1 and other routes, with potentially even less Russian gas (or even none!!) I don't see how Europe could refill their storage for winter 23/24.

Even if there was the political desire could the LNG exporting countries increase the exports, are there enough ships and how long would it take to build more LNG terminals , my uneducated guess is that it would take years to get all the ducks in a row. Even if the UK gets "enough" gas what will it cost ?

[anotherexlurker]

And nearer home, this report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574
Suggests a "significant risk" of a UK gas supply shortage in the coming winter. That is one of the most doomerish OFFICIAL reports that I recall.

As well as gas shortages resulting in power cuts, the report notes the risk of insolvencies amongst operators of gas fired power stations.

The government can easily solve the insolvency risk , but it cant solve the lack of gas problem !!
We do need honesty and a plan for trying to reduce demand as much as possible , something on the lines of support Ukraine by switching off your central heating/turn the thermostat down and only heat one room by using a gas fire instead of gas central heating (if you have one).

My best guess was 60/40 that we would suffer a gas shortage this winter , so much depends on both the weather and politics which are both hard to predict for any distance into the future.

[clv101]

Check out this thread: https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status ... -F1Mg&s=19

The rest of world is already facing an LNG crisis.

[adam2]

Newer news report here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574

This is an updated version of the report posted earlier today, but is more strongly worded and also appears on the front page rather than being only in the business section.

[adam2]

And despite the concerning news, natural gas prices continue to fall. Under 300 pence a therm today, high by historical standards but lower than in the recent past. Very surprising.

[clv101]