Trade in a post oil future

How will oil depletion affect the way we live? What will the economic impact be? How will agriculture change? Will we thrive or merely survive?

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DominicJ
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Trade in a post oil future

Post by DominicJ »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_laws

In 1815, when ships were still made of wood and sail powered, it was economical to transport grains from Europe AND the Americas to the UK, so much so that British Landowners had it blocked.

I was just reading a few old articles regarding food production in the future and our current reliance on imports and I thought it was relevent that we were pretty major food importers 150 years ago.
Britain's dependence on imported grain in the 1830s was 2%; in the 1860s it was 24%; in the 1880s it was 45%, for corn it was 65%.[
If grain could be sailed across the atlantic in a sail boat 200 years ago, trade might not slack off as much as people think.
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JohnB
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Post by JohnB »

We were a superpower then, and Britain ruled the waves. It may be technically possible to import food in future, but it relies on friendly countries to supply it, and safe passage on the sea to get it here. Things were a bit dodgy in WW2.
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skeptik
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Re: Trade in a post oil future

Post by skeptik »

DominicJ wrote:
If grain could be sailed across the atlantic in a sail boat 200 years ago, trade might not slack off as much as people think.
Shifting cargo round the planet using large seagoing vessels is the most energy efficient method there is. I imagine this will be the last use for the fossil fueled internal combustion engine as oil supply declines.

Sail/engine hybrids as common at the end of the 19th century could make a comeback. There's a system called SkySail - which uses a computer controlled parasail/kite as an auxilliary power source which looks promising. One of its major advantages is that it can be retrofitted to existing vessels.
http://www.skysails.info/index.php?id=472&L=2

The first to be knocked out by PO will be airfreight for 'low' value items.
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DominicJ
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Post by DominicJ »

Very true, but NATO is unlikely to be surrendering control of the high seas any time soon.

As I said, it was just a thought, but peak oil isnt going to kill off the ability to transport food, which is pretty low value, across the world.

It may still kill off our ability to grow it.
The American prairie farms were only viable because of coal powered steam trains.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

DominicJ wrote:Very true, but NATO is unlikely to be surrendering control of the high seas any time soon.
A lot of vessels' crews off the coast of Somalia may beg to differ.

The oceans are very big places.
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Re: Trade in a post oil future

Post by Bandidoz »

DominicJ wrote:If grain could be sailed across the atlantic in a sail boat 200 years ago, trade might not slack off as much as people think.
True, I guess you wouldn't be concerned much if you live near to a port.... ;)
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Post by CountingDown »

Or near a Canal built to ship stuff to and from a port . . .
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Post by Andy Hunt »

andrew-l wrote:Or near a Canal built to ship stuff to and from a port . . .
Such as the Manchester Ship Canal, for example . . . ? :lol:

:wink:
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Andy Hunt wrote:
andrew-l wrote:Or near a Canal built to ship stuff to and from a port . . .
Such as the Manchester Ship Canal, for example . . . ? :lol:

:wink:
Or the Leeds&Liverpool? Anyone know if it's still operative?

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Post by CountingDown »

Andy Hunt wrote:
andrew-l wrote:Or near a Canal built to ship stuff to and from a port . . .
Such as the Manchester Ship Canal, for example . . . ? :lol:

:wink:
Could be :lol:
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Post by goslow »

perhaps we could manage the volume of trade in the 19th century by sail, but how big was our population then?????

however, as long as we can prioritise ff for fertiliser production and other agriculture uses, we may well retain self sufficiency in wheat as we have now in the UK. Its the fruit and veg that's the problem I think.
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DominicJ
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Post by DominicJ »

The two supermarkets I use are both on a canal...

It was just something that jumped out at me, 200 years ago, grain, what must be the worst cost/volume ratio, was shipped in such quantities protectionist laws were introduced.
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Post by Sand Dancer Nick »

Interestingly, social critic Stateside James Howard Kunstler in his recent blog mentions about revitalisting waterways as freight transport in between bashing WalMart, suburbia and car culture - and steam trains making a comeback could be a possibility! If we hit Peak Coal then bear in mind a lot of early American steam locomotives were woodburners.

That has me thinking, IKEA could be a stock of fuel!!! :)

Much of our fruit came from abroad in days gone by and still does - oranges, lemons, etc, I'm sure we couldn't grow them here because of the climate.
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Post by JohnB »

Sand Dancer Nick wrote:Interestingly, social critic Stateside James Howard Kunstler in his recent blog mentions about revitalisting waterways as freight transport in between bashing WalMart, suburbia and car culture - and steam trains making a comeback could be a possibility! If we hit Peak Coal then bear in mind a lot of early American steam locomotives were woodburners.
I get the impression that British Waterways are cost cutting and trying to sell off everything they can. They are almost totally focused on leisure boating. In the recession the waterways seem likely to deteriorate, rather than be revitalised. That's one of the reasons I have doubts about the idea of living (and travelling) on a narrow boat, although I haven't totally ruled it out yet.

As far as the railways go, all the steam infrastructure, fuelling and water points, locomotive sheds with ash pits etc were destroyed many years ago, as well as the heavy engineering facilities to build locomotives. It would take massive investment to go back to steam.
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goslow
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Post by goslow »

going back to steam large scale would be nuts. 6% efficient! Burn the fuel (wood, coal, whatever...) in a power station and have an electric train, far superior.
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