Oil peak [again]

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 13 Oct 2020, 12:13

We are starting to see more posts from the oilwatchers pointing out peak volume eg:

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... il-peaked/

Of course the numbers don't tell you anything about push or pull. There is probably less demand than supply currently. But we know it's a messy business to follow and low demand kills future supply etc. Presumably if the US stopped harrassing Venezuela to please the oil producers, there would be more produced.

Are we there yet??

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 13 Oct 2020, 13:05

The drop in demand created by the shutdown of passenger air service is the primary cause of the over supply and price depression. When the airlines recover so will the price of oil.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Oct 2020, 18:48

AIrlines use about 9% of global oil supply. A 50% drop in aviation would be less than 5% of total demand. Road transport is 47%. A 10% drop in demand would have a bigger impact than 50% of aviation.

Sales of electric cars are set to triple this year, as a percentage of all sales in Europe. Norway sales are now 60% electric.

Working from home is now the default for a significant minority of the UK work force. Overseas holidays are unlikely to fully return before Covid is reduced to a minor risk via vaccination (if ever).

The global depression has barely started. At least another million will lose their jobs in the UK alone. The service industries are decimated. The velocity of money has fallen sharply as the relatively wealthy are not spending as much and the poor become destitute.

Demand is not going to recover any time soon, and if and when it does, the massive decline rates of US fracked oil wells will have cut production so much that no amount of drilling will be able to get production back to pre-covid levels. Only US fracking and Canadian tar sands prevented peak oil a decade ago.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Oct 2020, 19:38

PS_RalphW wrote:AIrlines use about 9% of global oil supply. A 50% drop in aviation would be less than 5% of total demand. Road transport is 47%. A 10% drop in demand would have a bigger impact than 50% of aviation.

Sales of electric cars are set to triple this year, as a percentage of all sales in Europe. Norway sales are now 60% electric.

Working from home is now the default for a significant minority of the UK work force. Overseas holidays are unlikely to fully return before Covid is reduced to a minor risk via vaccination (if ever).

The global depression has barely started. At least another million will lose their jobs in the UK alone. The service industries are decimated. The velocity of money has fallen sharply as the relatively wealthy are not spending as much and the poor become destitute.

Demand is not going to recover any time soon, and if and when it does, the massive decline rates of US fracked oil wells will have cut production so much that no amount of drilling will be able to get production back to pre-covid levels. Only US fracking and Canadian tar sands prevented peak oil a decade ago.

Do you not get it yet?

Covid19 has been the cover for an economic collapse that was due anyway. Do you seriously think that our Western capitalist ruling class would have allowed a lock-down that is implicated in having demolished our economies for the sake of a, frankly, second rate pandemic in terms of death count if they did not already know the economy was about to go tits up anyway?

Except, this way, via the various lock-downs and stripping away of civil liberties, they get to man the lifeboats while everyone else must remain below deck and they get to issue the orders while everyone else gets to shut up and do as they are told.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Oct 2020, 21:49

LJ

My comment was a statement of fact about the future oil supply and demand. Demand has been destroyed as a result of the global lockdown, with inevitable knock on effects on the supply as wells a shut in and drilling new wells stopped. The massive decline rates of fracked wells is a given. Hence peak oil has happened. The world will never pump as much oil each day again.

Your insane conspiracy theories as to why the lockdown happened are totally irrelevant to this thread. Stop polluting the discussion with them.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 13 Oct 2020, 22:22

PS_RalphW wrote:Your insane conspiracy theories as to why the lockdown happened are totally irrelevant to this thread. Stop polluting the discussion with them.

Agreed.

Post by **clv101** » 13 Oct 2020, 22:32

I don't think the world will *ever* extract as much oil again. We are now living in a post peak world.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 13 Oct 2020, 23:09

A five percent decline in demand results in millions of barrels of oil without a market and a much larger percentage wise drop in price as no other market can increase demand easily as you can only drive your car or run your factory so far or fast even if the fuel is cheap.
This will work it's way out as the world gets over Covid or learns how to deal with it. It is tough to be a fracking driller now but once the panic is over they will be able to drill enough wells to keep up with decline plus meet the market demand.
The world may well move away from the fossil fuels but it will take a decade or more to make the transition.

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 13 Oct 2020, 23:54

Some years ago RGR was pointing out that peak oil would be driven by economics rather than physical limits, if this is the case the obvious question is "Does peak oil matter ?". If a stalling world economy is the cause then we'll see "Peak Iron", "Peak Beer", "Peak Gypsum".

Should we be treating oil as a special case ? Or, is it just one brick in a crumbling building ?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 14 Oct 2020, 00:09

Catweazle wrote:Some years ago RGR was pointing out that peak oil would be driven by economics rather than physical limits, if this is the case the obvious question is "Does peak oil matter ?". If a stalling world economy is the cause then we'll see "Peak Iron", "Peak Beer", "Peak Gypsum".

Should we be treating oil as a special case ? Or, is it just one brick in a crumbling building ?

Yes or shall we say peak fossil fuel?
At present the fossil fuels are what makes our economies run and while the alternatives are growing they can not as of now replace the fossil fuels.
The need for and the utility of the fossil fuels will make them major players for a couple of more decades.