Transition towards Cuba?

How will oil depletion affect the way we live? What will the economic impact be? How will agriculture change? Will we thrive or merely survive?

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Sam172
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Transition towards Cuba?

Post by Sam172 »

I was just reading the thread 'Possibility of a (really) fast crash' by MacG, in that it was mentioned that:

"When trying to predict the future it can be useful to study historical examples, the problem in our case is that there are none! We (or at least I) dont know of any previous civilisation which has reached the same degree of complexity and myriad of mutual interdependencies as ours."


Now, I'm posting my response to just this part here, so as not to detract from the already interesting conversation going on in that thread.

Now, what I'm saying is that Cuba has gone through a form of oil crisis in the past. It's not a complete cessation of oil, but when the USSR collapsed - the economy started to die as the US wouldn't buy produce (which the USSR had originally bought at a markup price from Cuba, in exchange for oil much of the time).


Cuba has been mentioned briefly by a few people, such as (if you don't mind) - SherryMayo in the 'What happens when the oil runs out...' thread:

"Cuba (also a communist country) reacted differently to the same problem with much more success. I think they privatised collective farms and they encouraged many individual initiatives for food production - especially in the cities (eg by making it easier to get access to spare land in the cities etc for food growing purposes).

Cuba's government has many faults but it did handle its own oil crisis well - it let people get on with growing food without interfering (and encouraged them), and it also did some useful central planning stuff eg breeding up bullocks for pulling ploughs (in part by banning locals from eating beef!). "



What's happening in Cuba at the moment? Well, organic farming is somewhat prevailent due to lack of fertilisers, they are excellent mechanics (due to the need to repair, not replace broken pieces of cars). They often repair these vehicles with very limited resources. Also hitchiking is law due to the lack of fuel (hence why you seem to see lots of open backed trucks crammed with farm workers).

Now I'm not saying that this is a direct representation of what problems the world is going to face, just that it's interesting to see how a small little island has managed to survive with limited amount of fuel and with the inability to export (openly at least) with its biggest neighbour.
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Bandidoz
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Post by Bandidoz »

http://www.museletter.com/archive/159.html

Cuba was able to implement a crash programme due to strong leadership from Fidel Castro. The same experience didn't pan out for North Korea, though.

What was interesing on what Heinberg said about Cuba is that they didn't suffer a population crash. Instead everyone is 30% thinner, and they changed from eating meat twice a day to only twice a week.
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

Cuba's not so good these days - lot's of fertilizer used again now, obesity which was 30% in the 80's fell to 16% by '93 is now back up to 36%.
bigjim
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Post by bigjim »

Not so long ago, Cuba discovered a small-ish oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico which will allow them to import less oil from Venezuela.

Fidel Castro's also been seen demonstrating low voltage cookers on telly.
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Post by DamianB »

CUBA DOCUMENTARY FILM PREMIERE ON JANUARY 14

Megan Quinn, Outreach Director for The Community Solution (Yellow Springs, Ohio), traveled to Cuba to capture on video the experience of the first nation in the world to transition to a post-peak oil era. "For Cuba, it was more of a cliff than slope," she says, "for they lost 50% of their annual oil imports overnight when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991."

Here's the message from a forthcoming flyer:

As the world fast approaches Peak Oil, Cuba provides a living example of how a country can successfully address what we all will have to deal with sooner or later--the depletion of finite fossil fuel resources.

When Cuba lost access to Soviet oil in the early 1990s, the country faced an immediate crisis--feeding the population--and an ongoing challenge--how to create a new low-energy society. This film tells the story of the Cuban people's triumph over their sudden adversity through cooperation, conservation and community, presented in their own words.

Cuba's transition from large farms and plantations and reliance on fossil-fuel-based pesticides and fertilizers, to small organic farms and urban gardens, and from an industrial society to a sustainable one, is an example for the rest of the world.

Seeing this film, you may also see the world where we live as another, much larger, island.
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Hey James - what about getting hold of a bulk order of these?
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
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