PowerSwitch

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/9867 ... link_98674

Our resources are finite. Most of us don't feel we have all that we require to meet our own needs and goals. And the best-laid preparations of the most planful of us can suddenly become woefully insufficient if too many unexpected family, friends and neighbors show up demanding our charity.

How do we prepare for the unprepared?

The short answer is we can't; not fully. But we can plan for how much to place in reserve for them.

Here at PeakProsperity.com, we firmly believe in helping others; even those who scoff today at our "doomer" approach of preparing for the worst. But we realize that the demand from the unprepared masses during a crisis will most likely always dwarf your resources. So you'll have to make tough calls. Our advice is to make them now. Whom will you help? What are you willing to provide them with?

Great article on how most people are unprepared for any kind of disaster and how you must prepare for the "unprepared". Are you?

No.

Rather depends on what sort of disaster we're talking about.

The most likely disaster is a storm (hurricane/blizzard/flood take your pick) that knocks out enough bridges that the roads are unusable and at the same time knocks down enough utility poles to take out the power grid and land line phone service. Depending on the severity of the storm you might be on your own from a day to three months or more.
A lot of people would be in distress after three days but I'm good for six months or more.
Best part about the roads being out is only the immediate neighbors can get to you looking for assistance and food.
It would take one epic storm to keep my neighbors and myself from digging/ chopping or building our way out in a week or so but if the nearest shopping plazas are still non functional there wouldn't be much point in it beyond accessing the nearest hospital.

Depends where you live. No storm of that severity has hit south-east England since 1987. And even then it just took 80% of the trees down in some places. Things were pretty much back to normal within a week or so.

UndercoverElephant wrote:Depends where you live. No storm of that severity has hit south-east England since 1987. And even then it just took 80% of the trees down in some places. Things were pretty much back to normal within a week or so.

You should look back 500 years and look at the five worst storms. Those are your hundred year events even if they all happened in the same century as they are random events or at least they are when it comes to predicting when the next one will come.
In my 61 years here in Vermont I've seen several blizzards and several ice storms plus three floods and one Hurricane with flooding. The longest I've actually been snowed in was four days but my sister living just fifteen miles away was cut off for a week by the Hurricane and major road repairs for that took over a year.

Storms are unlikely to cause a big enough problem, they happen somewhere on the planet most years and most things keep going. What might cause severe disruption is a clever cookie with a nuclear device that is exploded just outside the atmosphere and generates an EMP. That will fix most of the modernised world as all the systems are based on integrated circuit electronic devices. No transport, all modern vehicles less than 10 years old are electronic. No communication, including public announcements. No power generation and distribution. No looking things up on the internet.

If you have access to some cows, sheep or goats you could get some cheese organised as that will give a couple of years supply providing you live in a suitable place to store it. Most people don't, and they won't be able to get a cellar dug quickly enough. People living near the sea might be ok, but there isn't the fish available there was even 50 years ago, and commercial fishermen rely on electronics to navigate and to locate fish. They will have only one tank of fuel, and no possibility of re-supply, so it will be only sailing boats.

I am always amused that UK 'preppers' seem to miss the most likely problem IMO. The UK runs into very serious economic problems [see Venezuela/Argentina etc.]. Foreign criminals stop using the city of london. Rationing is reintroduced to avoid civil unrest, because the flow of goods is failing - just like 60 years ago. Sounds like a good time to me, but the majority will be disrupted.

You might well be right, but I was expecting a collapse years ago, and don't know what allows the system to keep going. The longer it keeps going the worse it's going to be as the UK is sooooo much in deficit that we're boke several times over.

There are too many people around now who have grown up (in age terms) with an expectation that "I have rights", that rationing will be an unacceptable restriction, and their solution will amount to civil war. The less agressive ones will suffer as a result.

woodburner wrote:You might well be right, but I was expecting a collapse years ago, and don't know what allows the system to keep going.

Printing money, zero percent interest rates and fracking (and other forms of expensive, unconventional oil) have kept the system going since 2008.

I consider myself to be reasonably well prepared for the more plausible emergencies and disasters, and at least partially prepared for the more extreme and improbable events.

Reasonably well prepared for-
Severe storm, somewhat worse than 1987.
Civil disorder.
Industrial disputes interrupting essential services.
Flooding, up to worse than has ever been recorded.
Extreme (by UK standards) geological events such as earthquake or volcano, unless I was very close.
Extreme heat or cold, up to a bit worse than has occurred previously.
Outbreak of contagious disease.
Power cut up to a few weeks.
Failure of water supply for up to a few weeks.
Climate change, if limited to the extent that could reasonably be expected in my lifetime.
Food shortage for up to a year or two.

Somewhat prepared, but cant realistically fully prepare for-
Full scale war or civil war.
Nuclear attack.
Truly extreme weather, the sort of storm called a "city killer"
Permanent failure of water supply.
EMP or other event resulting in long term power loss.
Permanent famine/food shortage.

Unknown unknowns-
Terrorist attack, One cant really prepare for a terrorist shooting at one or detonating a bomb dangerously nearby. The likely INDIRECT effects of a terrorist attack are covered above.
Asteroid impact, very unlikely but COULD happen anywhere on earth with little or no warning. General preps would help a bit if outside the directly affected area.
Truly extreme and unexpected geological events such as a SEVERE earthquake in regions not normally so afflicted, or a SEVERE tsunami in the UK.
Alien invasion, too unlikely to consider very seriously, but cant be totally ruled out.

adam2 wrote:I consider myself to be reasonably well prepared for the more plausible emergencies and disasters, and at least partially prepared for the more extreme and improbable events.
.....
Reasonably well prepared for-
......
Unknown unknowns-

Alien invasion, too unlikely to consider very seriously, but cant be totally ruled out.

I'd draw a line through that last one. If aliens from another star system have the technology to get from there to here in their lifetime the chances of us having any effective defense against them is zero.
Better to prepare to deal with the real alien invasion from Africa and the Middle East which is already happening. You are going to have to deal with that one like it or not.

You left out a super volcano erupting, Adam.

kenneal - lagger wrote:You left out a super volcano erupting, Adam.

That comes under "truly exceptional geological events" in the list of unknown unknowns.

woodburner wrote:You might well be right, but I was expecting a collapse years ago, and don't know what allows the system to keep going. The longer it keeps going the worse it's going to be as the UK is sooooo much in deficit that we're boke several times over.

I was expecting that by now if by some chance I was still alive, I'd be living in the rubble of my own home eating vermin, insects and grass and defending myself with the femur of a neighbour.