PowerSwitch

Ukraine - East v West, EU gas supplies, financial markets near all time high while most workers have seen falling standards of living across the globe. Multiple tensions across middle East none of the arab spring countries have settled down and all still in turmoil. There must be a limit to the aid that can be given, too many conflicts, too many victims and there may be a retraction to lower levels than before with an 'its all too much what can we do?' mentality arising. Not to mention Iraq which seems destined to be some Somalia type mess for the forseeable future. Afghanistan - Obama threatening to pull all troops out -how long before it reverts to an even worse state than it is already. Huge cuts in US defence spending on one level you could say at last moving in the right direction but what is the reason? Do they know the game is up, they just cannot juggle so many wars, so much debt?
What can/should we as individuals do, how long may we have to do it? Go stick your necks out some predictions, I'll go stock market crash within 6 months and major problems 9 months away.

I don't know about "crash" for the stock market but certainly a large "correction" is on its way soon enough.

Also, I notice that for the first time in years this autumn didn't bring us the usual Ukraine/Russia gas brinkmanship game. If the Ukraine were clever they could get Russia to help it (with energy) and the EU to help it (with finance etc) on the grounds that both lots want it on-side.

RenewableCandy wrote: If the Ukraine were clever

The lack of clever seems to be a recurring theme in mankind's history. I suspect it will be ever thus.

westcoast wrote:Huge cuts in US defence spending on one level you could say at last moving in the right direction but what is the reason?

Do they know the game is up, they just cannot juggle so many wars, so much debt?

They know the game is up, economically. Their problem is that it has now become clear that the situation is going to deteriorate regardless of whether they keep printing money or try to stop. If the fed "tapers" then it threatens global financial instability, but if it becomes obvious that they can't "taper" then they can't go on pretending that one day they can taper, which threatens (destroys) the credibility of the US dollar (QE HAS TO BE temporary, or all hell breaks loose.) There's other stuff going on too, such as the Germans calling foul on the rigging of the gold market, the Bank of England being implicated as condoning currency rigging and the Chinese dumping dollars, US bonds and other dollar-denominated assets. So the US finally has to prepare for much harder times, and that means cutting back on their bloated military.

What can/should we as individuals do, how long may we have to do it?

Nothing different to what we're already doing.

Go stick your necks out some predictions, I'll go stock market crash within 6 months and major problems 9 months away.

The problems are now multiplying all over the planet. Regional/civil wars are getting much nastier. Economic/monetary problems are getting much worse. It's just going to keep getting worse. I don't think we're going to have a "fast crash" scenario now. That would have happened in 2008 if it was going to happen, and we're on a different path now: a step-by-step descent into hell.

I suspect the next major turning point is going to be political. We're eventually going to reach the point when it is no longer possible to fool people that things are going to get better (globally), at which point the politics radically changes. We are going to start seeing more revolutions like the one in Ukraine, and the rise of both the radical left and the radical right - or in some cases the rise of something which is a hybrid of both of them.

In the case of the UK it all depends on the outcome of the Scottish referendum on independence, and then on the outcome of the general election next year, which will take place before any independence negotiations finish (if it votes yes).

biffvernon wrote:

RenewableCandy wrote: If the Ukraine were clever

The lack of clever seems to be a recurring theme in mankind's history. I suspect it will be ever thus.

Too much chaff. Needs to be sorted from the wheat. Might as well get the die-off underway. James Lovelock said as much very recently.

westcoast wrote:What can/should we as individuals do, how long may we have to do it? Go stick your necks out some predictions, I'll go stock market crash within 6 months and major problems 9 months away.

All individuals can do is set the best example they can - naturally, avoiding evangelising except when asked to do so - and this means creating resilience in your life (get rid of debt, minimise [fossil] energy use, be happy with less etc) and support others who do the same. Couple this with integrating fully into your local community.

The global biggie (apart from climate change) is energy intensity. Emissions are rising even as we become more 'efficient' and per capita energy use declines.

Whatever lies shills are paid to rant, the 1-unit-for-100 EROEI energy has long gone and the ratio is decidedly parity-wards. Don't be surprised the energy put into tar sands (and other extreme sources) is greater energy got out.

UndercoverElephant wrote:I suspect the next major turning point is going to be political. We're eventually going to reach the point when it is no longer possible to fool people that things are going to get better (globally), at which point the politics radically changes.

I agree. Sadly people are going to be fooled into voting for those who promise toys.

The toys at first will be iPods and cheap flights, till it's seen these are empty promises. Later, the toys will be weapons, which will be much easier to sell.

emordnilap wrote:

UndercoverElephant wrote:I suspect the next major turning point is going to be political. We're eventually going to reach the point when it is no longer possible to fool people that things are going to get better (globally), at which point the politics radically changes.

I agree. Sadly people are going to be fooled into voting for those who promise toys.

Worth looking at the latest Archdruid. His point is in some ways exactly the opposite, people will be/could be fooled into voting for those who promise to deal with the real problems. Unfortunately, that may bring along a lot of very nasty baggage with it,


Peter.

Blue Peter wrote:

emordnilap wrote:

UndercoverElephant wrote:I suspect the next major turning point is going to be political. We're eventually going to reach the point when it is no longer possible to fool people that things are going to get better (globally), at which point the politics radically changes.

I agree. Sadly people are going to be fooled into voting for those who promise toys.

Worth looking at the latest Archdruid. His point is in some ways exactly the opposite, people will be/could be fooled into voting for those who promise to deal with the real problems. Unfortunately, that may bring along a lot of very nasty baggage with it,


Peter.

Very interesting article, as usual.

The Republicans insist that the only reason the economy hasn’t recovered yet is that the rich still have to pay taxes.

Heh heh.

I'm a bit puzzled by this:

I’ve commented here before how our political demonology stands in the way of any response to the converging crises of our time.

The fact that USA citizenry has a sum total of two candidates chosen for them every four years is probably more important that peoples' hatred of who is actually forced upon them. Healthy politics does occur patchily but at lower levels than those I think he's talking about.

Whatever, it looks like Archdruid has skipped my iPod stage. He thinks further ahead than me. We're still living through that 'continuation of promises' stage, the promises from either Tweedledum or Tweedledee.

emordnilap wrote:I'm a bit puzzled by this:

I’ve commented here before how our political demonology stands in the way of any response to the converging crises of our time.

The fact that USA citizenry has a sum total of two candidates chosen for them every four years is probably more important that peoples' hatred of who is actually forced upon them. Healthy politics does occur patchily but at lower levels than those I think he's talking about.

Whatever, it looks like Archdruid has skipped my iPod stage. He thinks further ahead than me. We're still living through that 'continuation of promises' stage, the promises from either Tweedledum or Tweedledee.

My understanding of US politics is that it is currently grid-locked. Neither party has a big enough majority to go ahead and legislate on their own (though the various houses, President etc.). Yet, they won't compromise with each other. They would almost rather have the US default than come to a compromise of raising the debt ceiling. Clearly, they did reach some sort of compromise on this, but it was a close run thing. It is quite easy to see them not compromising on less serious things, on principle. (That is, it does happen, but I don't follow it to be able to give you some examples.)

His point is also that the only way to change this for the better is to get incolved in local democracy and work it up, which I think relates to some of the other points you make,


Peter.

Thanks BP.

And looking at the thread title - "Is this it?" - well, no-one can say, can they? Just as the peak in conventional oil was confirmed to be 2005 only after the event is one such experience.

This cauldron that is the human world is certainly bubbling; the point where it actually boils over will be recognised only in hindsight.

emordnilap wrote:Thanks BP.

And looking at the thread title - "Is this it?" - well, no-one can say, can they? Just as the peak in conventional oil was confirmed to be 2005 only after the event is one such experience.

This cauldron that is the human world is certainly bubbling; the point where it actually boils over will be recognised only in hindsight.

FWIW, I think that he would also say that there is no "it" (or it's extremely unlikely). Just as we passed peak conventional in 2005 without knowing it, we will pass other milestones without knowing them, which is to say that they aren't "it". They are important, they mean something, they're a bump down another stair, but they're not "it" because nothing is,


Peter.