PowerSwitch

Hi,
I posted this in general discussion but then realised that it might be more appropriate here, I hope that's ok.

I'm new to the forum and have been very interestedly reading your posts.
I have a question if that is ok?
I will try to be as succinct as possible.
I am worried that things are going to get very hard, really quite soon. Reading about what is happening in the middle east and about the global food shortages that look very likely to drive prices up even higher next year, it is all begining ot feel very real to me.

Can I ask what people in the know think is going to happen next? And how soon before it gets really hard to live as we are??

My husband and I live in a small three bed semi with a small garden, we have a baby and a toddler. We already struggle each month to pay the mortgage, bills, and pay for basics like food and fuel. I am really concerned that we need to make a big change and soon and if we don't we could be looking at huge food/fuel bills and a much higher mortgage within the next year and a life that we can no longer afford.
But here's the thing, i'm not sure what to do about it and I worry that i am making a mountain out of a mole hill and worrying too much about something that will not happen or will happen much slower and less dramatically than I fear.

Sorry if this is a bit of a garbled post.
Any thoughts/advice appreciated!!

Thank you,
Julia

Welcome Juliaw.

The more people asking question like yourself, the easier it should make it overall, though that doesn't help you at the moment.

No-one on here can tell you what's going to happen next. The best advice, really, is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Start with practicalities: tell us about your house; he insulation it has, the construction, the orientation, the size of the garden, that kind of thing. Money (yes, I know most of it is accounted for ) is best spent on insulation, loads of it. It can be cheap and diy but you need to consider cold bridges, ventilation etc and some of the best stuff to use health- and environment-wise is dear.

Also, transport, what do you use and for what?

And find other people in your locality to share your concerns with. Is there a Transition initiative nearby for instance?

http://www.transitionnetwork.org/

and

http://www.transitionnetwork.org/initiatives

Juliaw wrote:
...it is all begining to feel very real to me.

You and a few billion other people...

Can I ask what people in the know think is going to happen next? And how soon before it gets really hard to live as we are??

If anybody knew the answer to that then they would be well-placed to make a killing out of it.

How soon? I don't personally believe the cashpoints are just going to stop working one day. What is going to happen is that everything (and I mean pretty much everything) is going to become steadily more expensive. This is already happening, as you know. What is going to happen next is more of the same, but worse.

My husband and I live in a small three bed semi with a small garden, we have a baby and a toddler.

They are going to grow up in a very difficult world. I don't have kids, and this is the reason why.

We already struggle each month to pay the mortgage, bills, and pay for basics like food and fuel. I am really concerned that we need to make a big change and soon and if we don't we could be looking at huge food/fuel bills and a much higher mortgage within the next year and a life that we can no longer afford.

That depends what sort of mortgage you are on. A tracker?

I don't think interest rates are going to go seriously upwards any time soon. Inflation is heading towards 5% and the BoE still hasn't raised interest rates off the floor.

But here's the thing, i'm not sure what to do about it...

Drink. Works for me....

..and I worry that i am making a mountain out of a mole hill and worrying too much about something that will not happen or will happen much slower and less dramatically than I fear.

This is no molehill. I guess you didn't come here expecting us to tell you it was a molehill. All our lives are going to change dramatically over the next ten years - I don't think there is any serious doubt about that any more. What can you do about it? Start changing the way you live before you are forced to do so...try to stay ahead of the curve and ahead of the main flock (which is currently still only vaguely aware of the seriousness of the situation we are in). If you are still buying anything you don't really need then stop buying it. Try to think about where you might want to be living when the shit really hits the fan. What sort of community? How far from your workplaces?

On the bright side....for many people the biggest immediate problem is even getting to the stage you have reached - they are in denial, or busily ignoring all the warning signs because they've got too many other things to think about. If you and your husband have both accepted what is coming then at least you can start seriously planning for it. At least you won't have to argue with him about whether or not you can afford a foreign holiday....

What is going to happen next is more of the same, but worse.

I'd add that the pace of change will probably get faster and there may be some negative feedback loops which amplify certain events and speed things up further.

It's worth reading some of the following authors- Nassim Taleb- black swan events, Naomi Klein- shock doctrine, Dimitry Orlov - collapse USSR and soon US stylee but the best of all as far as I'm concerned for both exposition of the problems and good practical suggestions is Sharon Astyk, who has two blogs and multiple books- all of which are worth a look. http://sharonastyk.com/
http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/

For support with practical issues you can't beat the UK self sufficientish forum-http://www.selfsufficientish.com/forum/

Hi Juliaw and welcome to the forum.

So, you've identified a problem, a big problem, and want to do something, something effective, about it.

Firstly, is your husband onboard? In your post you talk about your own concerns. Does your husband share them?

How secure is/are your job(s)? Do you have other income or skills that can get you an income or save on your outgoings? Do you want to stay at your present home or would you like to move to different accommodation or to another part of the country? What have you done so far re maximising your own food production and minimising energy consumption?

Not a test, just background and things to consider.

Did you see my comment in a thread here about growing plants, fruit and veg and selling the surplus, particularly the surplus plants (so many seeds in a packet!)?

Hi,

Thank you for your replies.

My husband is also worried, in fact he has been a member of this forum for a long time.

Having read your replies I think I need to be a bit more specific about the dilema that has driven me to post...

The three bed semi that we own has a very small garden which is given over to a small amount of lawn and patio for my little boys to play on and a dog area for our two dogs. We have just moved from a larger house with a very large garden where we used to grow quite a lot of veg...this now feels like a big mistake. Our new house is small but in a very desirable location and although we only bought it at the end of last year we have done a lot of work to it so think that if we were to turn around and try to sell it now, even bearing in mind the current market, we would make a bit of a profit.

We have seen a small holding (with a small two bed house, which is in need of work and modernisation, and two acres of land) coming up for sale near us. The guide price is about the top of our budget but it might be just about doable. It is in a great location, further out in the country and also closer to my parents. It is not much further from my husbands work than we are here. It is in an area which we thought we would never be able to afford land in...

But, we have only just moved into this house! We moved because I don't drive and wanted to be in an area where I could walk to the shops, schools, beaches, etc. From that point of view it is great and it is a lovely place to live, near great schools and even a good pub! (The small holding is in a small community but would be much more isolated with much fewer local amenities and I would probably have to look at learning to drive again.)

I am now just feeling very torn and worried that we have moved to the wrong place.

I should also mention that the recent move has meant that our council tax and home insurance have gone up quite a lot as well as our mortgage and we are really feeling the effects of this and I am worried about how we will cope with the rising cost of, well, everything and a mortgage hike which is bound to come in the near future.

I know our friends and family would think we were nuts to try and sell this house and move again so soon, but I also genuinely worry that we would be stupid not to try and buy this house with land which is in an area where this sort of thing is normally way out of our price range.


So, opinions please? What do you think?

Thanks!
ps - I have booked a viewing for this Saturday...

What do I think? I think you don't actually own the house, it owns you until such time as you've paid off the mortgage.

What else do I think? I wish my wife and I could work a smallholding. Her parents did, so she grew up on one, and loved it (the bantams were 'hers'); and my father wanted as much land as he could afford, and grew lots of veg and a bit of fruit (my mother wasn't interested in gardening, just in having trees progressively cut down until they were only stumps or, even better, completely removed), and only moved when house and garden were going to become too much work for them both. However our dream of a smallholding will never become a reality because of her extremely poor health - a garden completely turned over to growing food is the best I can do for now, so seize your opportunities when you can!

What sort of distances are involved in getting from the smallholding to vital places? What options would you have for the school run when it is needed? Could you share the travel with neighbours and their kids? How about home education?

Not having a pub close by would probably save you both a packet! Take up home brewing and entertaining in each other's houses! What would the neighbours at the smallholding be like? - Do you live in a 'friendly' part of the country? Do they accept newcomers/townies (if you are 'townies')?

Oh, I do wish I could run a smallholding!

Juliaw wrote:Hi,

Thank you for your replies.

My husband is also worried, in fact he has been a member of this forum for a long time.

Having read your replies I think I need to be a bit more specific about the dilema that has driven me to post...

The three bed semi that we own has a very small garden which is given over to a small amount of lawn and patio for my little boys to play on and a dog area for our two dogs. We have just moved from a larger house with a very large garden where we used to grow quite a lot of veg...this now feels like a big mistake. Our new house is small but in a very desirable location and although we only bought it at the end of last year we have done a lot of work to it so think that if we were to turn around and try to sell it now, even bearing in mind the current market, we would make a bit of a profit.

Then sell it now.

We have seen a small holding (with a small two bed house, which is in need of work and modernisation, and two acres of land) coming up for sale near us. The guide price is about the top of our budget but it might be just about doable. It is in a great location, further out in the country and also closer to my parents. It is not much further from my husbands work than we are here. It is in an area which we thought we would never be able to afford land in...

Do it.

But, we have only just moved into this house! We moved because I don't drive and wanted to be in an area where I could walk to the shops, schools, beaches, etc. From that point of view it is great and it is a lovely place to live, near great schools and even a good pub! (The small holding is in a small community but would be much more isolated with much fewer local amenities and I would probably have to look at learning to drive again.)

I am now just feeling very torn and worried that we have moved to the wrong place.

You've moved to the wrong place.

I should also mention that the recent move has meant that our council tax and home insurance have gone up quite a lot as well as our mortgage and we are really feeling the effects of this and I am worried about how we will cope with the rising cost of, well, everything and a mortgage hike which is bound to come in the near future.

Yep, definately moved to the wrong place...

Hello Julia

None of us can be 100% sure of the future, but most agree that house prices are likely to fall for several years and the interest rate is so low now it can only go up.

It might be worth considering selling up and either renting or buying somewhere more sustainable. If not - at least consider a fixed rate mortgage because if we face high inflation that will eat away at your mortgage debt.

Good luck!

Hi Julia,

You'll get a few differing predictions here, my guess follows.

I don't see a "fast crash" scenario happening in the UK, we have a considerable infrastructure and despite our debts we still have enough credit rating and assets to bale out the government for a few more years. What I do see happening is a slow decline towards a much less pleasant society over the next 10 years.

The warning signs are here now, little manufacturing industry, reliance on the financial services sector, 40% imported food, crippled police service, failing schools etc. etc.

It doesn't look good to me.

The question I have been asking myself is should I make the most of my coming redundancy ( voluntary ) and throw myself into spreading the word, a potentially thankless task I fear, or should I sell up and move to a nice smallholding in Wales ?

So far the smallholding is looking favourite, which probably says something unpleasant about me but that way is where I'm heading. I don't think I'll feel guilty about it.

So, my advice would be to move to the smallholding and give your kids an education and legacy that might be worth something in the future.

Take us with you Catweazle!

featherstick wrote:Take us with you Catweazle!

There will be space.

Do you fancy coming out for a few rabbits one evening this week ?

Smallholding. No brainer. Dunnit myself. Way to go, period.

Maybe you could get an allotment?

Or try looking on landshare

http://www.landshare.net