Bugging out of London

[biffvernon]

Interesting post, BitSlice10101. Could you tell us what the military action you describe might be attempting to achieve?

The intent logistically would be to secure important M & A roads which are supply lines around and into the City.

More importantly to stop any sort of exodus out of London, this would be devastating to the outer counties and the rest of the country who will have enough on their plate to deal with.

Inside the M25 there are two very important Airports, Heathrow and Gatwick...

Any type of shortage or prolonged civil unrest inside London could trigger an exodus out of the City and that won't be allowed to happen because of the knock on effects to the rest of the country and loss of control for the government.

Skipping quickly over the geography of Gatwick, I think if I were planning a post-climacteric emergency strategy I would want to get as many people who are willing to get out of London and go and stay with friends and relatives as far away as possible. A population dispersed through the shires may be easier to feed.

If government were to order the military to prevent a crowd of people going where they want to there could be a problem. I know our soldiers can behave a bit stupidly at times but I don't think government can rely on them shooting their fellow citizens.

Keeping main roads open is important but any big event is going to have a pretty instant effect on fuel supplies so roads are not going to be congested with mums on the school run. Everyone will ask themselves the 'is your journey really necessary' question.

[nexus]

The other night I was driving on a flyover through Greater Manchester at night. Suburban lights as far as you could see, for dozens of miles in all directions. There must be a similar population to London living in that urban area, which now runs from Liverpool to the Pennines without a real break.

Yes- and the tentacles of London extend far from the M25- Drive along the M4 and it's one long development, pretty much all the way to Reading; most of the South East has got a high population density and is heavily developed.

[mikepepler]

I remember that War Plan UK book, I think my parents used to have it. Looks pretty expensive to get hold of an old copy now, I'll have to see if they still have it... Does anyone know if the info in it is available elsewhere, online or in a book?

[RenewableCandy]

I wonder if CND do a reprint?

[MrG]

I just dont see a situation where you cant get a train

Really? Surely it doesn't take much imagination to think of a plausible situation that stops the trains running?

Snow? Wrong kind of mist?

[RenewableCandy]

Chavs on the line (stealing the wires), points failure, train in front breaking down, train you're in breaking down, driver late for work, tree on line, weather too hot, weather too cold, stabbing in next carriage, victim of forced marriage on the line (Bradford of course), leaves, snow, high winds, strikes, these have all happened to me or to marvellous other 1/2 in the UK in the complete absence of any type of disaster.

[DominicJ]

It might be a mistake just to consider London.

The other night I was driving on a flyover through Greater Manchester at night. Suburban lights as far as you could see, for dozens of miles in all directions. There must be a similar population to London living in that urban area, which now runs from Liverpool to the Pennines without a real break.

With a mixture of awe and horror I took in what an overpopulated country we live in.

Liverpools actualy quite small.

"Greater Manchester" which does go all the way to the pennines is still only 2.5mn people, you wouldnt get London numbers even if you add in Brimingham, Lancaster and everything in between.

But yeah, no where in the UK is remote.
Even quiet country villages are ten miles from a bustling city centre.

Biff

I know our soldiers can behave a bit stupidly at times but I don't think government can rely on them shooting their fellow citizens.

Today, no.
After enough provocation?
An infantry company thats taken losses from people attacking ambulances / fire engines they were protecting might be quick to open fire the next time.
A Mob thats just over ran and killed a a unit of riot police might try it again against a machine gun post.

They arent going to open fire on a peaceful protest, but a violent one? Heading for their families?

[adam2]

"Tap water, might be a week or two depending on the reliability of standby generating plant at water works. "

Remember Tewksbury? During the floods of 2008(?), a pumping station was flooded, very quickly disabling the domestic water supply for, IIRC, over a week. Pictures on TV of Army delivering bottled water to collection stations in sports fields, which many people couldn't reach.

Yes, Localised flooding, whether on its own or as part of a wider problem could disable some water works almost instantly.
Not all water works are vulnerable however, and I would expect that most would function for a week or more without grid power, until the fuel for standby generating plant is used up.
Some hilly districts have local electric pumps in street side kiosks, these dont normally have any backup power supply, and the water in such places would therefore go off as soon as the power fails.

[jonny2mad]

biff

I know our soldiers can behave a bit stupidly at times but I don't think government can rely on them shooting their fellow citizens.

hmm at present we have several wars on the go where we have basically invaded another country and are occupying them, and we or our allies have been caught torturing people. The American govt said it was OK to crush a child's balls in front of his parents to get information

The Nazis or soviets as far as I know never were that open.

Personally I Don't doubt that the British army would fire on unarmed civilians in the right circumstances, those circumstances could be either you or they get to eat.

[clv101]

"Greater Manchester" which does go all the way to the pennines is still only 2.5mn people, you wouldnt get London numbers even if you add in Brimingham, Lancaster and everything in between.

Indeed. This is a little bit interesting: Metropolitan Boroughs. Shows where the high population densities (outside the SE are).

Here's the European picture:

[energy-village]

Scary! On that map I’m barely 2-3 hairs from a black blob.

[cubes]

Not all water works are vulnerable however, and I would expect that most would function for a week or more without grid power, until the fuel for standby generating plant is used up.

Are the standby generators likely to have more than 24-48 hours of fuel? Surely they are a relying on continuing deliveries in the case of a prolonged power failure.

Of course, that assumes they even work...

www.waterbriefing.org/index.php/home/co ... lian-water

[DominicJ]

Someone else will be able to expand on it, but most run fairly frequently, as an emergency grid supplement.
Presumably there is some law on testing and such, but who knows if its maintained.
It would be madness for them to have under a weeks fuel in the tank, but mad things happen.

[featherstick]

Scary! On that map I’m barely 2-3 hairs from a black blob.

Metric or imperial hairs?

[adam2]

Not all water works are vulnerable however, and I would expect that most would function for a week or more without grid power, until the fuel for standby generating plant is used up.

Are the standby generators likely to have more than 24-48 hours of fuel? Surely they are a relying on continuing deliveries in the case of a prolonged power failure.

Of course, that assumes they even work...

www.waterbriefing.org/index.php/home/co ... lian-water

They used to keep fuel for 3 days continous use, that would of course last for longer if not used continually, for example by supplying water only for a few hours a day.
These days ? perhaps not.
See sigline !