scared ****less

PowerswitchClive · Post by **PowerswitchClive** » 24 Aug 2005, 14:17

My plan is basically to emigrate to southern Australia in 2010-2012 and take it from there. I think Europe's a complete death-trap in the long term, Britain especially. It's just so overpopulated; so reliant on the exporters. If any serious climate change were to happen, it'd also be the worst affected! Maybe I'm not an optimist for Britain haha!

I would suggest that you read The Final Energy Crisis - edited by Andrew McKillop. It is suggested that Australia will be one of the worst places effected by petroleum shortages. In fact if I remember it was stated that Australia would find it difficult to sustain 1/10 of its current population, where as France could sustain at least 1/2. You have problems in Australia with the poor quality top soils (that need to be pumped full of fertilizers to be productive), the reducing water table that needs petroleum to pump water out and the huge distances.
If I were planning to move (which I am not) I think I would chose the southern counties of Ireland.

PowerswitchClive · Post by **PowerswitchClive** » 24 Aug 2005, 14:35

Anyhow, back to the thread in hand. May I ask fromthemiddleofnowhere, Do you own a property or do you rent? If you rent and the debts were due to (in the main part) a failed business, then clear them by going bankrupt! Get yourself some advice from the consumer credit council, but if you cannot realistically pay these debts off, in the next 4-5years and you don't own a property, then do think about it. Most bankruptcies end now after 12months > 2years max (means most of your debts are cleared and you must not take out credit of more than ?500 for the 2years that you are bankrupt) and there is no longer a stigma connected to it. From April 2004 the law was changed to make it easier to do also. This year has seen record numbers of personal bankruptcies, so you are not alone in being in debt.
This is not a good idea, if you have a mortgage, as the property would be sold to pay off your creditors.
Also do not take out a loan secured on your property (if you own) to pay off unsecured debt, like loans and credit cards. With the advent of peak oil, you need to clear your debts ASAP. If you or anyone else on this site, wants further advice, please yell.

JLefrere · Post by **JLefrere** » 24 Aug 2005, 14:40

I'm definitely going to have to read that! The point of moving there is that I wouldn't be using oil, I'd buy rural land and become self-suffiient. I find it hard to believe that what you're saying is true, but I will need to read that book to find out why. To me it seems to be in a good position: sparsely populated, a major exporter of food, isolated and relatively unaffected by climate change. That's a reason why I would definitely steer clear of Ireland; Northwestern Europe will be the worst affected by climate change (according to the US govt sponsered worst case scenario of global warming). Another option I've had in mind is New Zealand, but it doesn't seem too secure seeing as they have a very small military.

jcw · Post by **jcw** » 24 Aug 2005, 18:55

Hi JLeFrere,

you might like to check out the peak oil Board in Sydney:

http://sydneypeakoil.com/phpBB/

There's also been a fair bit of discussion of Australia at peakoil.com.

As I understand it Australia's worst problem is water. Some Aussies, at peakoil.com I think, have suggested that climate change is affecting Australia's water situation for the worse.

You have time to investigate and ponder. I wouldn't like to be in a massively overpopulated part of Britain (I'm British by the way, now expat).

JLefrere · Post by **JLefrere** » 24 Aug 2005, 19:32

Thanks a lot for that! Found some really useful posts on sydneypeakoil.

Perhaps I should be looking at climate change forums as well, in that case.

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 24 Aug 2005, 20:27

JLefrere wrote:I find it hard to believe that what you're saying is true

I think you might find Clive is correct

To me it seems to be in a good position: sparsely populated,

..because of the hostile climate.

a major exporter of food

..only because Oz has one of the most powerful fossil-agri-business in the world.

isolated and relatively unaffected by climate change

isolation is one thing do have in spades!
as for climate change, I'd say they'd welcome a little climate change in one direction, alas they seem to be getting it in the other

(yikes)

That's a reason why I would definitely steer clear of Ireland; Northwestern Europe will be the worst affected by climate change (according to the US govt sponsered worst case scenario of global warming).

True that we could be facing a big freeze, but if it isn't too harsh then the republic of ireland is prob the NUMBER ONE ideal choice in the whole of europe.

Another option I've had in mind is New Zealand, but it doesn't seem too secure seeing as they have a very small military.

I would disagree about your priorities here - any country with little/nothing worth stealing doesn't need a big military, plus Nz is very remote.
I think that Nz would prob be a better choice than Oz but I think both countries will be looking to expell all people not born there when they realise what they need to do for the best.

I'd like to make a couple of other points:
1) I'm definitely not doing that "oh country X will be much much worse than we will" thing that seems so popular. I'm realistic about the negatives in the UK
2) I bet SherryMayo has more to say on this subject
3) I'm planning to stay in blighty and do my bit to make things work.

jcw · Post by **jcw** » 24 Aug 2005, 20:35

This is a recent Australia thread over at peakoil.com (3 pages).

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic11232.html

(Sorry to be somewhat off this thread's topic.)

JLefrere · Post by **JLefrere** » 24 Aug 2005, 20:49

Blimey. Yes I read that peakoil.com thread before I read your replies here, and it's really changed my mind!

I'm tempted to agree with you now but one point you made,

"I think that Nz would prob be a better choice than Oz but I think both countries will be looking to expell all people not born there when they realise what they need to do for the best."

I'm not sure where you're coming from with that. Are the NZ natives (not confusing with Maori here) helping to create a sustainable future for their country? I don't think so. If I were to make a positive contribution, with NZ citizenship, then why would I be deported?

Maybe I just have to marry a New Zealander

I think this is going to take a lot of planning, but there's no harm in throwing ideas around.

I don't know how many other people are thinking about their future like this as well, but I think it's certainly a good idea if you're my age; it's going to get worse in the far future before it gets better! I know that a lot of PowerSwitch people plan to stay in Blighty and that's fair enough if you think it's a good idea, but I've never been very British anyway so I see PO as a good excuse for moving

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 24 Aug 2005, 21:05

JLefrere wrote:I'm not sure where you're coming from with that. Are the NZ natives (not confusing with Maori here) helping to create a sustainable future for their country? I don't think so. If I were to make a positive contribution, with NZ citizenship, then why would I be deported?

Firstly I'm not talking about the genuine natives - they always get a raw deal - but about the ex-brit settlers who now hold power in Nz and Oz.

What I mean is that when the governments realise what they need to do the first thing that becomes obvious is that they need as smaller population as possible. I guess they will strive for this in a number of ways but one is likely to be "you don't hold a full passport for this country, you have to leave".

The was-born-here residents will be the ones to riot, the ones with a vote and the ones the governments have to plicate/bully/pander to/etc. I don't think it will matter if you are making a valuable contribution - your plot of land will be required for a local.

Alas, xenophobia will be the way in many countries.

I know that a lot of PowerSwitch people plan to stay in Blighty and that's fair enough if you think it's a good idea, but I've never been very British anyway so I see PO as a good excuse for moving

Well I can't fault you for that !

RogerCO · Post by **RogerCO** » 24 Aug 2005, 23:50

On the subjecct of Australia the book 'Collapse...' by Jared Diamond also has some interesting observations about why Australia might be a particularly bad place to move to if you are looking to survive a global collapse.

PowerswitchClive · Post by **PowerswitchClive** » 25 Aug 2005, 09:45

The other point I wish to make is, what makes you think, that you will be able to relocate in 5-7 years? I am beginning to doubt if we have that much time. For relocation to be successful you need to not only have setup base (which normally requires money), but also to have integrated. This is much more difficult when moving abroad and it takes a lot of money and time. It?s not like moving to Scotland, where all that would be required is renting a property or buying? getting a new job or a transfer and making friends with your new neighbors. All of which is very daunting, but you can magnify this 10times when relocating aboard. In fact to truly have any hope of making a move work?. You ideally want to buy a property (in an area and country where you have a visa to work and will be welcome) outright and have money and time to make suitable changes to that property. You then need to work with your new local community to get the peak oil message out, so that this community that you have just moved too is working in that same direction. One word of warning here is, that unless these people know about peak oil, you will have a very difficult time. As the new comer you are not going to be too popular to start with?.. Now I would say that even relocating here in the UK, would take time and a hell of a lot of effort. Moving aboard for those that are thinking about it needs action now! What I am trying to say is, that firstly, moving aboard and settling is much more time consuming and daunting then most people realize (not forgetting very expensive) and secondly, to make a move abroad work, I think you would need to start now to be honest. For those of you seriously wanting to do this... Do not wait, the world is changing very rapidly.

bigjim · Post by **bigjim** » 04 Sep 2005, 21:58

How would NZ deport non NZers once peak oil has happened? It would require a lot of kerosene to send the expat Brits back to Britain from NZ (plus any other expats) and would therefore be very pricey. The only solution would be to dump them all in Australia (I'm sure the Aussies would have something to say about that) or some teeny Pacific island like Tuvalu or Vanuatu. Or make them a sailing ship and give them a compass.

Besides, NZ is a huge country with a population similar to that of Wales. I think it could easily support all the people it has there now. Maybe even double the population?

Australia doesn't appeal. It's mostly a very inhospitable place.

andyh · Post by **andyh** » 04 Sep 2005, 23:11

I think the concept of countries like NZ deporting people on the basis of how long they have been there etc is a bit farcical - how would they set the arbitary limits etc? And the talk of natives and non natives is equally superficial - there is not a Maori alive who does not have some pakeha/European blood in his/her veins - the last 'full blooded' Maori died in the 1920s.
What is much more likely is that countries like NZ will shut down immigration; but a country which is slightly larger than the UK but only has 4 million residents and has an enormous agricultural base and gets 70% of its energy from renewables is likely to struggle to keep refugees out........

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 08 Sep 2005, 22:55

regarding expulsisons....

I think all that has been said so far on:
a) the practicalities of choosing who is to be expelled
b) where they are to be sent to
c) how much it actually costs the expelling-nation

...are all perfectly valid.

BUT

the context of when this would likely take place is one of surging (and doubtless misguided) nationalism supported with a little bit of fact (less population will probably make things better for the those that remain) and lots of bullsh1t, but that won't matter, it will be like a runaway locomotive.

Look at Nazi germany in the 30's - the demonising of various factions of the community made no practical sense whatsoever (many of those killed or forced out were actually of real value to germany) but that made no difference.

I think it is a phenomenon not to be underestimated, and that includes for the Uk.

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 08 Sep 2005, 23:54

The likes of us would probably be first to go - since we're not telling people what they want to hear.....