Andyh ? I agree with your sentiment my own way of looking at it is that the US is borrowing to consume and China is borrowing to invest to service the US, given that people only borrow when they are optimistic about the future, see what happens when there is a change in sentiment, it seems to me that there has to be a swoon first then the helicopter money drops will happen after, Marc Faber has pointed out that every asset class is going up at the moment and he sees a big pull back later in the year, if people cut back on borrowing then consumption of all commodities would drop.
To me the gold and silver rise is pure speculation probably on borrowed money and this leads me to think that this is a short run trend. To me the only reason to hold gold or silver is to expect a risk to the financial system, derivatives melt down, hyperinflation etc. this is not why gold is going up now.
Longer term my view is that peak oil will affect the mining industry badly, although Jim Puplave is very bullish on juniors and I would agree with him in the short run, I doubt if a lot of these will get going as they will have trouble securing the equipment and energy and even if gold goes up in price the cost of energy and disruption could be higher. Otherwise I?d prefer to hold gold to cash
Investing in physical gold – discuss
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Andyh - good post, seems spot on
My guess would be that we may be hit by severe bank or at least currency problems before we see peak oil cause severe social breakdown
my current investment priority
silver, oil, gold in that order
I disagree, I think it is financial problems causing gold's rise even though the media talk of Iran etc.SILVERHARP2 wrote:To me the gold and silver rise is pure speculation probably on borrowed money and this leads me to think that this is a short run trend. To me the only reason to hold gold or silver is to expect a risk to the financial system, derivatives melt down, hyperinflation etc. this is not why gold is going up now.
My guess would be that we may be hit by severe bank or at least currency problems before we see peak oil cause severe social breakdown
my current investment priority
silver, oil, gold in that order
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StephenCurran (Stef)
- Posts: 73
- Joined: 08 Jan 2006, 16:14
- Location: Rutherglen, Glasgow
).-
SILVERHARP2
- Posts: 611
- Joined: 14 Feb 2006, 17:02
- Location: DUBLIN
Alexx wrote: I disagree, I think it is financial problems causing gold's rise even though the media talk of Iran etc.
Just asking but what financial problems exactly?
I view gold as a canany in the mineshaft as well, but there are alot of momentum funds piling into gold at the moment, if interest rates keep rising these funds could get hit or they may just move onto other assets.
I'm 1/3 energy,gold and silver and would add to in the same order. Silver is such a thinly traded asset that it is easy tobe on the wrong side of the trade. I bought at $6.5 and would need to see a big decline before I add.
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StephenCurran (Stef)
- Posts: 73
- Joined: 08 Jan 2006, 16:14
- Location: Rutherglen, Glasgow
Before the big run up in silver, I seen a story on bloomberg stating that BILL GATES had invested in silver.
However bloomberg did not kindly tell us the sum of his investmnet.
Given the size of his fortune and the small size of the silver market, me and a friend who were discussing the matter concluded that BG by himself could have an enormous impact on the market.
Anyway, this was pretty near the beginning of the pretty much unprecedented run up, so at this point i'm concluding that the ~50% rise in approximetely 3 weeks was at least PARTLY due to Mr Gates.
Disclaimers
There may have been other funds involved as well!!??
In actual fact Mr Gates, may not have invested that much??!!
Facts:
----------silver ~ 10 dollars/oz before runup -- March 28th
----------peaked @ what? 14.50 dollars/oz roughly April 16 or something
(sorry can't be bothered getting chart)
----------declined to like 12 dollars/oz a couple of days ago..
NOW THATS WHAT I CALL VOLATILITY!
----------Note: I have no assets (silver, gold paper money etc,
----------just liabilities(debt, debt, etc)
----------So feel free to dis this.
----------Silver market (unlike say maybe oil market) small enough to be
----------influenced by funds??- pretty sure on that, have not done any
----------proper analysis though!
----------silver on rise again!!
music ROLLERCOSTER... OF LOVE... ROLLERCOSTER end music
Stef sining I mean signing off.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... ver28.html
However bloomberg did not kindly tell us the sum of his investmnet.
Given the size of his fortune and the small size of the silver market, me and a friend who were discussing the matter concluded that BG by himself could have an enormous impact on the market.
Anyway, this was pretty near the beginning of the pretty much unprecedented run up, so at this point i'm concluding that the ~50% rise in approximetely 3 weeks was at least PARTLY due to Mr Gates.
Disclaimers
There may have been other funds involved as well!!??
In actual fact Mr Gates, may not have invested that much??!!
Facts:
----------silver ~ 10 dollars/oz before runup -- March 28th
----------peaked @ what? 14.50 dollars/oz roughly April 16 or something
(sorry can't be bothered getting chart)
----------declined to like 12 dollars/oz a couple of days ago..
NOW THATS WHAT I CALL VOLATILITY!
----------Note: I have no assets (silver, gold paper money etc,
----------just liabilities(debt, debt, etc)
----------So feel free to dis this.
----------Silver market (unlike say maybe oil market) small enough to be
----------influenced by funds??- pretty sure on that, have not done any
----------proper analysis though!
----------silver on rise again!!
music ROLLERCOSTER... OF LOVE... ROLLERCOSTER end music
Stef sining I mean signing off.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... ver28.html
what a lot of questions:
Stef: yes, in fact the enourmous Thursday fall beat my record for greatest capital loss in a single day but I didn't sell and silver ended higher on the week, also see below re 20/04
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andyh: advantages of silver over gold, there is much less silver above ground than gold by weight, for 18? years consumption has exceeded supply, previously there was plenty of silver around to make up the deficit but this is now getting more critical. There is an extremely large commercial short position on Comex, possibly too big to deliver on. My GUESS is that the recent steep rise is probably due to the proposed Barclays ETF, not yet trading but collecting physical silver in order to do so, the amount it needs is relatively large compared to the pool available.
This guy is out on a limb compared to mainstream but he has made better predictions than most, just in my opinion
http://www.investmentrarities.com/tb-archives.html
re 20/4/06 fall, important and in my opinion probably correct commentary on 20/4/06, see silver chart before reading if you haven't looked at it yet, the Ted Butler referred to is in the link above
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/edito ... /0420.html
no, I'm continuing in silver
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Silverharp2: don't feel as expert here as much as silver but I think that the debt problems are not going to go away without hyperinflation and financial stress, at the moment the borrowers are in a bit of difficulty and if rates rise the stress will increase but the lenders are not worried about the security of their lending, just wonder how long for. With US no longer releasing M3 this has got to make people think but has it, generally not
silver extremely difficult to predict short term but most traders I've seen said / say it has gone up too far too fast but have been saying it since $10, most people not as bullish as me, we can only wait and see
Stef: yes, in fact the enourmous Thursday fall beat my record for greatest capital loss in a single day but I didn't sell and silver ended higher on the week, also see below re 20/04
---
andyh: advantages of silver over gold, there is much less silver above ground than gold by weight, for 18? years consumption has exceeded supply, previously there was plenty of silver around to make up the deficit but this is now getting more critical. There is an extremely large commercial short position on Comex, possibly too big to deliver on. My GUESS is that the recent steep rise is probably due to the proposed Barclays ETF, not yet trading but collecting physical silver in order to do so, the amount it needs is relatively large compared to the pool available.
This guy is out on a limb compared to mainstream but he has made better predictions than most, just in my opinion
http://www.investmentrarities.com/tb-archives.html
re 20/4/06 fall, important and in my opinion probably correct commentary on 20/4/06, see silver chart before reading if you haven't looked at it yet, the Ted Butler referred to is in the link above
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/edito ... /0420.html
no, I'm continuing in silver
---
Silverharp2: don't feel as expert here as much as silver but I think that the debt problems are not going to go away without hyperinflation and financial stress, at the moment the borrowers are in a bit of difficulty and if rates rise the stress will increase but the lenders are not worried about the security of their lending, just wonder how long for. With US no longer releasing M3 this has got to make people think but has it, generally not
silver extremely difficult to predict short term but most traders I've seen said / say it has gone up too far too fast but have been saying it since $10, most people not as bullish as me, we can only wait and see
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SILVERHARP2
- Posts: 611
- Joined: 14 Feb 2006, 17:02
- Location: DUBLIN
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4937622.stm
"The evidence is the underlying trend is very strong" said Peter Richardson, chief metals economist at Deutsche Bank. "All metals are becoming precious," he added.
Hey,
Just a few (VERY!) beginner questions, if someone can help?
1. somewhere during this post (can't find where now to quote, sorry!) someone (possibly andyh?) said they were investing 5-10% of their savings/money in gold- why only that much? won't that mean a loss of quite a lot of monetary value to the other 90% when inflation hits (if it's still cash, maybe it's invested in something else?)
2. and, i'm not sure if this is a hideously stupid quiestion (but apparently there's no such thing, so here goes
)- do u get dividends from precious metal investments?
Thanks
Just a few (VERY!) beginner questions, if someone can help?
1. somewhere during this post (can't find where now to quote, sorry!) someone (possibly andyh?) said they were investing 5-10% of their savings/money in gold- why only that much? won't that mean a loss of quite a lot of monetary value to the other 90% when inflation hits (if it's still cash, maybe it's invested in something else?)
2. and, i'm not sure if this is a hideously stupid quiestion (but apparently there's no such thing, so here goes
)- do u get dividends from precious metal investments?Thanks
Hi Jane
to answer your questions:
1) no unfortunately if you hold gold directly you get no dividends, interest etc (one of its drawbacks!). However if you hold shares ina profitable gold miner then you would be eligible for dividends etc - shares in gold miners also tend to move (both ways) to a greater degree in response to the movements in PoG (the leveraging effect). But you of course only own a piece of paper (or electronic byte more likely) that says you a share-owner).
2) The 5-10% figure is what used to be used as a baseline for exposure to metals such as gold in old fashioned balanced portfolio theory. Nowdays very few investors would have anything like that. Since gold pays you no interest (see 1) then classically going beyond this level is not going to mean you have very much income if for example you are relying on the portfolio to generate cash. In investment terms you are relying on its appreciation relative to currencies which you can then at some pont exchange your gold for more of. But clearly if things do indeed get as bad as many people here feel then it may make very good sense to increase ones gold holding significantly beyond 10%
Hope this helps
to answer your questions:
1) no unfortunately if you hold gold directly you get no dividends, interest etc (one of its drawbacks!). However if you hold shares ina profitable gold miner then you would be eligible for dividends etc - shares in gold miners also tend to move (both ways) to a greater degree in response to the movements in PoG (the leveraging effect). But you of course only own a piece of paper (or electronic byte more likely) that says you a share-owner).
2) The 5-10% figure is what used to be used as a baseline for exposure to metals such as gold in old fashioned balanced portfolio theory. Nowdays very few investors would have anything like that. Since gold pays you no interest (see 1) then classically going beyond this level is not going to mean you have very much income if for example you are relying on the portfolio to generate cash. In investment terms you are relying on its appreciation relative to currencies which you can then at some pont exchange your gold for more of. But clearly if things do indeed get as bad as many people here feel then it may make very good sense to increase ones gold holding significantly beyond 10%
Hope this helps
Hi andy,
Yeh, that's a great help, thank u. I didn't think you would get dividends from shares in gold itself, since it's not got returns etc, it's just a lump of the stuff! So I guess in PO terms, it's better to have investment in gold itself, rather than gold mining company, so that you have retained value and bartering power, which you wouldn't get with paper shares in the mining company?
Yeh, that's a great help, thank u. I didn't think you would get dividends from shares in gold itself, since it's not got returns etc, it's just a lump of the stuff! So I guess in PO terms, it's better to have investment in gold itself, rather than gold mining company, so that you have retained value and bartering power, which you wouldn't get with paper shares in the mining company?
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SarahSimcock
- Posts: 19
- Joined: 10 Mar 2006, 16:14
- Location: London
FT article on silver prices heading for boom levels
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6921cade-d4c0- ... e2340.html
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6921cade-d4c0- ... e2340.html
http://www.bullionvault.com/
Has anybody tried this company for buying and selling gold?
http://www.bullionvault.com/
http://www.bullionvault.com/
Re: http://www.bullionvault.com/
Yes, I have a bit of gold with bullionvault and silver with goldmoney.com - no problems with eitherMagnus wrote:Has anybody tried this company for buying and selling gold?
http://www.bullionvault.com/
I think bullionvault is great value.