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Greenspan Concedes to 'Flaw' in His Market Ideology

Posted: 23 Oct 2008, 18:16
by Aurora
Bloomberg - 23/10/08

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami'' has engulfed financial markets and conceded that his free-market ideology shunning regulation was flawed.

"Yes, I found a flaw,'' Greenspan said in response to a grilling from the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. "That is precisely the reason I was shocked because I'd been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.''

Greenspan said he was "partially'' wrong in opposing regulation of derivatives and acknowledged that financial institutions didn't protect shareholders and investments as well as he expected. Forecasting is an inexact science, he said.

Article continues ...
Unbelievable. :shock: :roll: :evil:

Posted: 23 Oct 2008, 19:15
by Andy Hunt
And the personal consequences for him of his mistake will be . . . ?

Posted: 23 Oct 2008, 19:26
by Ludwig
Andy Hunt wrote:And the personal consequences for him of his mistake will be . . . ?
Nail on head.

The guy's no fool. He knew it would end like this and all he ever cared about was being believed for long enough to make his killing.

Posted: 23 Oct 2008, 19:37
by JohnB
He's obviously clever enough to know it's a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami'', so deserves some credit, even though he admits that "Forecasting is an inexact science". I wonder how he worked that out, seeing that 1929 was less than 100 years ago, and no other similar event has happened. At least we won't have to worry about it happening again in our lifetime if he's right :roll:

Posted: 23 Oct 2008, 19:54
by Vortex
He got an $8.5 million advance on his best selling book ... :shock: :shock: :evil: :evil:

Posted: 23 Oct 2008, 22:06
by biffvernon
Ludwig wrote:
Andy Hunt wrote:And the personal consequences for him of his mistake will be . . . ?
Nail on head.

The guy's no fool. He knew it would end like this and all he ever cared about was being believed for long enough to make his killing.
I don't think we can be sure about that. He may genuinly be shocked. But as Taleb pointed out, having a great track record, appearing to be right for 40 years, is worthless if in year 41 the black swan arrives.

Posted: 25 Oct 2008, 10:54
by EmptyBee
I have great difficulty in believing Greenspan is anything other than the world's best paid charlatan.

For starters there is no great mystery surrounding the origin of the "credit tsunami." It was an entirely predictable consequence of a) deregulation and lack of oversight of financial markets and b) the keeping of interest rates well below the level of inflation, which predictably enough resulted in c) the money supply expanding exponentially faster than the real economy. Those hallucinated riches were bound to turn to ashes as sooner or later.

Aside from the complexities of the "innovative" credit markets, the job of the Fed, like any central bank, should be to stabilise the economy by raising rates to prevent economic overheating, and cutting rates to prevent recessions turning into slumps.

Unpleasant a systemic feature as it may be, recessions are a necessary evil to prevent bull markets getting carried away by their own momentum into economic lala-land, which is where the economy has been since 2001, a year in which Greenspan cut rates from 6.5% to 1.75%. He carried on cutting until the 1% nadir of 2003.

Greenspan cut far more than was necessary, not merely lessening the impact of what would have been a normal enough downturn, but catapulting the global economy into an unprecedented credit bubble, or credit tsunami if you like. The only question then, is why?

I believe that Greenspan's loose monetary policy was a consequence of political pressure, in particular pressure to keep the economy booming, and the credit flowing fast and loose so Bush could finance his adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Notice that since the credit crunch, the talk of war with Iran has almost vanished.
Also, the expansion in bubble-industry jobs - i.e. in housing and related industries, disguised the job losses from off-shoring, creating the illusion of transition from manufacturing economy to service economy.

Posted: 25 Oct 2008, 20:22
by Ludwig
EmptyBee wrote: Also, the expansion in bubble-industry jobs - i.e. in housing and related industries, disguised the job losses from off-shoring, creating the illusion of transition from manufacturing economy to service economy.
As far back as I can remember I never knew quite what was meant by a "service economy". At the end of the day all services deal in goods and energy, whether it's jet planes taking people on holiday, servers on the Internet, pizza dough, or car manufacturers taking your bank loan off your hands. And who's been making all these goods? Not us. Which means we're paying someone else to make them.

Clearly America got round this problem by cajoling or bribing or forcing the countries that supplied it to reinvest in American businesses - regardless of the fact that these businesses didn't actually produce much on the whole.

Posted: 26 Oct 2008, 02:33
by kenneal - lagger
Ludwig wrote:Clearly America got round this problem by cajoling or bribing or forcing the countries that supplied it to reinvest in American businesses - regardless of the fact that these businesses didn't actually produce much on the whole.
America got round the problem by ensuring that people traded oil in dollars and ensuring the World Bank and IMF traded in dollars. As everybody needed dollars, everybody had to buy the dollars and bonds the US printed every year to finance its rising debt.