Competition: when will price of oil reach $70 per barrel?

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 20 Jun 2005, 01:01

Damn. I thought I was winning this one - and then the site crashes.
I wonder if it wasn't someone about to loose!
My estimated date was 22nd August 2005 and I am sticking with it

Monday, June 20, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for July delivery closed up $0.90 at $59.37 per barrel.
Thursday, June 23, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for August delivery closed up $1.33 at $59.42 per barrel.
Friday, June 24, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for August delivery closed up $0.42 at $59.84 per barrel.
Monday, June 27, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for August delivery closed up $0.70 at $60.54 per barrel
Wednesday, July 6, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for August delivery closed up $1.69 at $61.28 per barrel.
Thursday, August 4, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for September delivery closed up $0.52 at $61.38 per barrel.
Friday, August 5, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for September delivery closed up $0.93 at $62.31 per barrel.
Monday, August 8, 2005: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for September delivery closed up $1.59 at $63.94 per barrel

SherryMayo · Post by **SherryMayo** » 20 Jun 2005, 01:46

I'll go for mid november again - say 15th November
(looks like we could be hitting $60 pretty soon).

Ballard · Post by **Ballard** » 20 Jun 2005, 08:23

A slight fall coming followed by a climb to $70....

I'd say Oct 25th 2005

greenbean · Post by **greenbean** » 20 Jun 2005, 17:11

Am I allowed to change my mind? I think I predicted January. But with oil nearly at $60 and the driving season only just beginning, I'd be surprised if we weren't there by the end of the summer. September 2005.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 20 Jun 2005, 20:43

In order to win, you have to take risks-> $70: Somewhere 2007-8. When a can of Coke cost $10.

Naaahh... I'm not 100% serious, this is a extralong shot, but the thinking goes roughly like this (and it is not even my own thinking, I've stolen it):

What we have seen the last years is not a true supply problem driving oil prices upwards, we have a couple of years left until the true crunch. What we have seen is mainly hedge fund speculation in a rising oil price. Leveraged speculation. Using derivatives. Such speculation can be self-fulfilling to a certain length, but can just as well unwind in a rather nasty crash. If this is true, we could see oil prices in the $10-$20, resulting in crashed hedge funds and crashed banks and a depression which would make the 1930's look like a sunny sunday picnick in comparison.

Well, it wont be many years until we have an answer on this one.

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 20 Jun 2005, 21:51

I think we should all exclude ourselves from this discussion on the grounds of vested interets, seeing that we all come from oil-producing countries!

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 20 Jun 2005, 23:30

MacG if Oil drops back to $10 or $20 again, let me tell you there will be a few million people buying like mad to stock-up! This in itself will drive prices right back up in next to no-time. In my opinion (IMO) Oil has been undervalued for some considerable time (decades) and now we have to pay the real price - which is very sad for us all.

I hope we do see some cheap oil again - for my personal greedy reasons - stocking up. But I fear cheap oil may now be gone - I have missed the boat......

bigjim · Post by **bigjim** » 20 Jun 2005, 23:45

Mr Snow sir, I believe that oil is still cheaper now than it could be in the not too distant future.

I'm going to buy a couple of jerry cans in the next few days and have 10l or so of fuel for an emergency.

$70 oil: October 29 2005

My prediction for $100 oil: 6 June 2006

(6/6/6!)

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 22 Jun 2005, 15:12

Here's a recap:

PaulS.............22 Aug 05
greenbean.....28 Sep 05
Ballard...........25 Oct 05
bigjim.............29 Oct 05
snowhope.....11 Nov 05
SherryMayo...15 Nov 05
blackaddr......01 Dec 05
Koba..............25 Dec 05
peaky.............10 Jan 06
DamianB.........12 Jan 06

It'd be fun to have a few more entries...

Contract is spot month NYMEX WTI future
Price basis is closing

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$WTIC

greenbean · Post by **greenbean** » 22 Jun 2005, 15:23

I'll name the 28th of september, just to get rid of those little question marks

It's a wednesday. Nothing good ever came of wednesday.

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 22 Jun 2005, 18:16

16th November 05?

Price will probably drop a bit in the near future as world economy (including China) slows a bit, but when the north gets cold and people need heating then there may be a crunch...

revdode · Post by **revdode** » 22 Jun 2005, 21:54

Ever the optimist 14th February 06.

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 23 Jun 2005, 23:27

After two days slide, oil has hit its highest ever price of just over $60/barrel. Another 10 to go and I will be celebrating victory on 22nd of August.
Its the 'anticipation' effect, stupid, as Clinton should have said.

peaky · Post by **peaky** » 24 Jun 2005, 14:03

OK - my date is the 9th of September 2005.

GregNixon · Post by **GregNixon** » 24 Jun 2005, 18:32

My bid: 12th October 2005. Hopefully I'll be giving a presentation to my course (Engineering Design at Bristol Uni) on peak oil around then.