PowerSwitch

The theory of peak oil remains as contentious as ever, and by definition is unresolved. The supporting evidence starts with the bull market in crude prices in recent years, inspiring some to proclaim that global production is about as high as it ever will be.

The optimists counter that technology will save the day, through new discoveries that offset declining production from aging fields and recovering more oil from older wells that would otherwise run dry.

The jury is still out on the big picture, and it may remain so for years. In the meantime, there is no shortage of data to review. Case in point: the reported peak (so far) in global crude oil production came in May 2005 at 74.3 million barrels per day (bpd), as our chart below shows, according to numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In fact, there's been only three months when global production crossed above 74 million bpd, with the latest one coming last October at 74.1 million bpd, or just below the May 2005 summit.

It's any one's guess if the old high will stand or not. And, of course, there are questions about the accuracy of EIA's numbers. In fact, there's skepticism that any database attempting to consolidate such an unwieldy beast as the world's oil production into one number. Nonetheless, everyone will be watching the updates, eager to declare victory for their side. All the more so considering how close last October's total was to the May 2005 apex. As we wrote this article, EIA's monthly production figures run through October 2007. The November report is coming soon.

Meantime, as the world ponders the supply side of the oil market, there's far less mystery on the demand side. In fact, it's the same old story: up, up and away.

Here's my predictions for their future:
They will have their stuff taken from them by either angry masses who blame them for their predicament (the government will blame the evil hoarders in order to get the blame off themselves).
OR
The government will take their stuff
OR
They will be press ganged into some forced labour on behalf of "the public good" and while they are gone their stuff will be pilfered
OR
The government will freak out and the British Empire will rise from the dust and they will be conscripted to go fight the new wars of resource colonization in west africa.

danza wrote: I like your drastic point of view fifth column but I think your sighting the most doomerish worst case scenario.

snow hope wrote:Agreed. The writing is on the wall. Rear view mirror is telling a pretty clear story. Even if the May 2005 Peak is exceeded in November 2007, it is pretty irrelevant to the scheme of things.

Anybody hanging on to the fact that we may not have peaked, obviously hasn't got hold of the reality of the situation we face.......

What shocked me recently (in a link posted by somebody) was that David Strachan isn't forecasting Peak until 2017 up to 2020. ....... Huh!

Aurora wrote:We have surely seen the event in the rear view mirror now.

Aurora wrote:We have surely seen the event in the rear view mirror now.

fifthcolumn wrote:Probably by next wednesday I expect.

snow hope wrote:
What shocked me recently (in a link posted by somebody) was that David Strachan isn't forecasting Peak until 2017 up to 2020. ....... Huh!

Aurora wrote:
Matt Simmons once said 'Judging the data, for instance, on current decline rates on even fields per basin is very hard to define and it turns out that peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late'.