IEA warns of Oil Pinch
Posted: 10 Jul 2007, 22:36
Ok I dont post much but as a lurker I couldnt resist this snippet:
http://www.celsias.com/blog/2007/07/10/ ... oil-pinch/
http://www.celsias.com/blog/2007/07/10/ ... oil-pinch/
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So much for "most optimistic" being optimistic enough!!Andy Hunt wrote:Very nice . . .![]()
It is somewhat worrying that the most optimistic energy agency in the world is giving the world economy just 5 years to live.
What it fails so spectacularly to see is that the higher prices are the problem, and their cause is the peaking of conventional resources.It, in another thread wrote:Liquid fuels aren't the problem, no one can say they will ever be cheap like they were up until they become less cheap (late 60's, early 70's) but we have plenty of them at higher prices, and therefore we have plenty of the basics for building out solar, nuke, tidal, windmills, whatever.
What you call a "problem" an economist calls a cost/supply curve, what an engineer might refer to as infill drilling opportunity, and what a geologist would say is just the natural progression of things deeper into the resource pyramid.RenewableCandy wrote:What it fails so spectacularly to see is that the higher prices are the problem, and their cause is the peaking of conventional resources.It, in another thread wrote:Liquid fuels aren't the problem, no one can say they will ever be cheap like they were up until they become less cheap (late 60's, early 70's) but we have plenty of them at higher prices, and therefore we have plenty of the basics for building out solar, nuke, tidal, windmills, whatever.
To explain Econ 101 to Doomers? Why, it is no trouble at all Candy!RenewableCandy wrote: What puzzles me is why it is going to so much trouble.
Gimme a break. Ruppert did that, Matt did that, the TOD editorial board did that, Lars at ASPO did that, I am quite happy to just reference them as near term examples of what happens when people make wild predictions first, and then try and come up the learning curve faster than reality can discredit them.odaeio wrote:Am not at all sure that "Ralph" is "a" human being - more like a "team" of rather intelligent human beings tasked with systematically destroying "doomer" and/or P.O. web sites.
British bullshit. Of course PO will happen, Hubbert certainly didn't get the finite production rate inside a finite system concept wrong at all, and I agree with him completely.RenewableCandy wrote: It is actually rgr. You can tell from the writing style and also from the same range of inconsistent positions displayed in the posts:
1. PO will never happen
Graphic of increasing production already provided. So the FACTS say that peak oil is somewhere floating off in the future, me referencing it is just what anyone trying to understand the problem finds out first.RenewableCandy wrote: 2. PO will happen sometime in the future but not our problem
More Brit bullshit. Real crude prices have been trending upwards since the early70's for a reason, in economic terms that is quite a substantial price signal, and even though it hasn't achieved a volume peak that price signal has ALREADY proven relevant. Otherwise every American would still be driving finned 6000# beasts getting 10mpg.RenewableCandy wrote: 3. PO will happen but it's irrelevant
Now you're just being thick. Of course high prices, for any commodity, are a problem for people who can only afford the lower prices and who haven't yet got (or can't afford) an alternative. And it is obvious to anyone with eyes and ears that this problem is getting worse.Ralph wrote:What you call a "problem" an economist calls a cost/supply curve, what an engineer might refer to as infill drilling opportunity, and what a geologist would say is just the natural progression of things deeper into the resource pyramid.RenewableCandy wrote:What it fails so spectacularly to see is that the higher prices are the problem, and their cause is the peaking of conventional resources.It, in another thread wrote:Liquid fuels aren't the problem, no one can say they will ever be cheap like they were up until they become less cheap (late 60's, early 70's) but we have plenty of them at higher prices, and therefore we have plenty of the basics for building out solar, nuke, tidal, windmills, whatever.
and half the world, the supposed more affluent half of the world, spends years in recession and is only partially baled out by the printing of vast sums of money.Ralph wrote: ..........In response to those THINGS, all sorts of cool things happen along the way, things change, people try out a new business model, folks adapt to the new stuff, and peak oil sites go belly up in embarrassment for having not researched the history of the topic before going out and making all the same mistakes of their fore bearers ........
From which perspective? I am more than happy to answer from just one, or all three.RenewableCandy wrote:Now you're just being thick.Ralph wrote:
What you call a "problem" an economist calls a cost/supply curve, what an engineer might refer to as infill drilling opportunity, and what a geologist would say is just the natural progression of things deeper into the resource pyramid.
As it has been since the beginning of time…..RenewableCandy wrote: Of course high prices, for any commodity, are a problem for people who can only afford the lower prices and who haven't yet got (or can't afford) an alternative.
As it has been since the beginning of time….RenewableCandy wrote: And it is obvious to anyone with eyes and ears that this problem is getting worse.
It is. And in the real world, the US is going gang busters on natural gas, attracting industry and manufacturing because of it, keeping prices low and reasonable, and the Brits choose to sit on theirs. You then don't get to blame resource scarcity for your CHOICES in doing so.RenewableCandy wrote: This is the real world, not an economics textbook.
Nobody enjoys suffering through the consequences of their actions, be it Americans and borrowing from China or Greeks suffering through what it takes to pay their piper.kenneal - lagger wrote:and half the world, the supposed more affluent half of the world, spends years in recession and is only partially baled out by the printing of vast sums of money.Ralph wrote: ..........In response to those THINGS, all sorts of cool things happen along the way, things change, people try out a new business model, folks adapt to the new stuff, and peak oil sites go belly up in embarrassment for having not researched the history of the topic before going out and making all the same mistakes of their fore bearers ........
I'm not sure that that THING is very cool though!