PowerSwitch

Take a peek at the Energy Bulletin here http://www.energybulletin.net/28191.html
(see Peak oil: The end of the modeling phase)

... the results obtained by two very different models --- the WOCAP and the GBM --- should help bring 'Peak Oil' modeling to a close, as according to these models the peak of global oil production has now been reached. Furthermore, the two models' similar forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast for the future production of the international oil industry.

Down from 85 mbd today to 55 mbd in 13 years time .... eek.
That won't stop the developed world in its tracks - but WILL require demand destruction & conservation in the West.
The 3rd world? Dark ages - unless they have oil or gas.

Vortex wrote:The 3rd world? Dark ages - unless they have oil or gas.

Those that do have oil or gas will wish they never had by the time the "coalition of the willing" have finished with them.

That's back to 1970's levels of production then.....

Did anyone see 'Life on Mars' last night

...forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast...

I have no confidence in such a conclusion. It's impossible to make such a forecast as moving from the pre-peak to post-peak regimes change fundamental variables governing how the world works. That 55mb/d is nothing more than potential productive capacity, reality could fall far short.

clv101 wrote:

...forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast...

I have no confidence in such a conclusion. It's impossible to make such a forecast as moving from the pre-peak to post-peak regimes change fundamental variables governing how the world works. That 55mb/d is nothing more than potential productive capacity, reality could fall far short.

And of course likewise, it could end up being much higher than this 55 mbpd figure due to unknowns like reserve growth, new finds, higher recovery factors , economic recession and recovery inbetween now and 2020 etc etc etc

Totally_Baffled wrote:

clv101 wrote:

...forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast...

I have no confidence in such a conclusion. It's impossible to make such a forecast as moving from the pre-peak to post-peak regimes change fundamental variables governing how the world works. That 55mb/d is nothing more than potential productive capacity, reality could fall far short.

And of course likewise, it could end up being much higher than this 55 mbpd figure due to unknowns like reserve growth, new finds, higher recovery factors , economic recession and recovery in between now and 2020 etc etc etc

Why does every PO argument end up with "balanced" ripostes?

The same happened recently on TOD with Stuart Staniford and Euan means taking opposite sides about Saudi Arabia's oil status.

Net result: zero.

Lurkers and transient visitors must often go away thinking that Peak Oil etc are simply hobby topics for Internet geeks.

Sometimes you need to meet in the middle, so that a unified consistent message can be pushed out.

The "doomers" opinion of the Peak being around now, and the US GA0 report stating 2040 as an optimistic date have the same effect ... stagnation.

When the Peak does eventually arrive the cogniscenti will be equally to blame for the lack of any meaningful preparations.

It all reminds me of "The Life Of Brian" ...

Brian: Excuse me. Are you the Judean People's Front?
Reg: F*** off!
Brian: What?
Reg: Judean People's Front! We're the People's Front of Judea! Judean People's Front - pah!
Francis: Splitters.
Brian: Can I... join your group?
Reg: Nah, p**s off.
Brian: I didn't want to sell this stuff, it's only a job. I hate the Romans as much as anybody!
Judith: Are you sure?
Brian: Oh, dead sure! I hate the Romans already!
Reg: Listen. If you really wanted to join the P.F.J., you'd have to really hate the Romans.
Brian: I do!
Reg: Oh, yeah, how much?
Brian: A lot!
Reg: [brief pause] Right. You're in. Listen. The only people we hate more than the Romans are the f***n* Judean People's Front.
Stan: Yeah, the Judean People's Front.
Reg: Yeah. Splitters.
Stan: And the Popular Front of Judea.
Reg: Yeah. Splitters.
Stan: And the People's Front of Judea.
Reg: Yea... what?
Stan: The People's Front of Judea. Splitters.
Reg: We're the People's Front of Judea!
Stan: Oh. I thought we were the Popular Front.
Reg: People's Front!
Francis: Whatever happened to the Popular Front, Reg?
Reg: He's over there. [points to a lone man]
Reg, Stan, Francis, Judith: SPLITTER!

PO pundit: Peak Oil in 2012? Pah! More likely 2014!
Loads of other PO pundits: SPLITTER!

Which reminds me of one of my all time favs:

STAN
I want to be a woman. From now on I want you all to call me Loretta.
REG
What!?
STAN
It's my right as a man.
JUDITH
Why do you want to be Loretta, Stan?
STAN
I want to have babies.
REG
You want to have babies?!?!?!
STAN
It's every man's right to have babies if he wants them.
REG
But you can't have babies.
STAN
Don't you oppress me.
REG
I'm not oppressing you, Stan -- you haven't got a womb. Where's the
fetus going to gestate? You going to keep it in a box?
(STAN starts crying.)
JUDITH
Here! I've got an idea. Suppose you agree that he can't actually have
babies, not having a womb, which is nobody's fault, not even the Romans',
but that he can have the *right* to have babies.
FRANCIS
Good idea, Judith. We shall fight the oppressors for your right to have
babies, brother. Sister, sorry.
REG
What's the point?
FRANCIS
What?
REG
What's the point of fighting for his right to have babies, when he can't
have babies?
FRANCIS
It is symbolic of our struggle against oppression.
REG
It's symbolic of his struggle against reality.

LOL at LOB quotes , I love that film!!

Lurkers and transient visitors must often go away thinking that Peak Oil etc are simply hobby topics for Internet geeks.

PO = economic depression , resource wars, 90% die off etc.

Nah,...I cannot see what could possibly make new or transient visitors dismiss this as a hobby topic for internet geeks lol!