PowerSwitch

If society fragments in a catabolic manner i.e decomposes into smaller units, fragmenting current established mega structures .... could an "underground" organisation feed off the mayhem to build up anabolicly a small but well structured alternative modern society?

It is not totally out of the question for a few hunded/thousand people to prepare for a decent life post-collapse.

Certain factories could be protected from looting, food & resources stores could be created/protected, transport & communications links & equipment could be protected.

I'm fairly sure that a modern - but small - society could rise from the ashes ... possibly using the carcase of the old society as a resource base.

I'm not talking about people who buy a house in the country and fill it with tinned food ... they have no chance long term.

I am thinking of a more planned long term approach.

Such a scheme would have to be planned well in advance.

So .. do you think that anyone is making such plans?

Could we detect their activities?

By the way, I got the idea for the previous post from: http://countercurrents.org/po-church170706.htm

It takes time for a civilization to come apart, and the process is like rolling down a slope, not like falling off a cliff.

We face a future of shortages, economic crises, disintegrating infrastructure, and collapsing public health, probably stretched out over a period of decades.

A few years of stored food and an assortment of high-tech paramilitary gear are hopelessly inadequate preparations in the face of this reality.

This lead me to think a Bill Gates or Richard Branson encountering this or a similar article might tbe tempted to set up a LONG TERM version of the survivalist bunker in the woods.

I'm not talking about people who buy a house in the country and fill it with tinned food ... they have no chance long term.

Why not? Provided they have also made certain "Security Planning", they are, IMO, more likely to survive. They are also more likely to have made the pre-planning of which you say is necessary.

A rich individual could indeed prepare to survive for say 10 years.

However Peak Oil etc could lead to a very long term decline, so a longer term plan is required to protect your children & their children. It also has to be on a big enough scale to include farmers, doctors, engineers etc.

Such a project would require quite a lot of analysis & planning.
I just wonder if we could detect any group of people preparing in this way.

Vortex wrote;
Certain factories could be protected from looting, food & resources stores could be created/protected, transport & communications links & equipment could be protected.

No, I do not think that would happen. Just to get protect the factory you are faced with exponential security numbers, how many people does it take to protect a factory against a mob of 100? 150 or 200? These 200 heavies will want feeding, shelter and so will their families, so your 200 has turned into actual necessaries for 800 ( assuming a wife and 2 kids or extended family) who will protect the families at home when the heavy is protecting the factory?

Vortex wrote;
I'm not talking about people who buy a house in the country and fill it with tinned food ... they have no chance long term.

Why not? When the transport system becomes very expensive local food production will become cheaper. A good example of this is the huge industry locally of sending lobsters by plane to the med on a daily basis. Also the 44-ton lorry that turns up 3 a day to take away Anglesey shellfish to Spain, France and Portugal. Even with this industrialised food removal I?m still able to put my little lobster pot out by the rocks and get a nice lobster or big brown crab once a week. Just think how much more there will be post peak. I?m convinced that people will form small communities of about 150 based mainly on family ties but also those who have had loyalty shown to them will have it reciprocated. Controversially I am also sure that someone or some family will end up on top with the most wealth, but to get to the top he (I don?t think it will be a she, told you I was being controversial!) will have to provide benefits and organise security for the rest of the group. Know your history and you will know your future.

I think the 10 years is vital.... it's the time buffer. (Although I can't imagine the volume of stuff you'd require for such a large buffer.)

You are asking this question about alternate societies and the preparation because you (like most of us) really don't know what from a decline might take.

So IMO a buffer against that time of uncertainty is a must for anyone who wants to be able to react to specific challenges as they occur.

Do you really think folk are going to munch their stores and do nothing else in the meantime to prepare for the future? You have bought land. Is that not also a buffer - or a run for the hills response?

I agree it would be great if groups of people could prepare. I think some of the towns Rob Hopkins is working with are trying to make just such plans (but not underground.... ).

I just think we are unable to visualise the changes sufficiently to make all the preparations required for generations to come. Our best model of life without oil remains the pre-industrial era - unromantic as that seems.

Vortex wrote:If society fragments in a catabolic manner i.e decomposes into smaller units, fragmenting current established mega structures .... could an "underground" organisation feed off the mayhem to build up anabolicly a small but well structured alternative modern society?

Yes. Look at Russia for examples. Oligarchs and Mafia is the answer.

Vortex wrote:It is not totally out of the question for a few hunded/thousand people to prepare for a decent life post-collapse.

Not out of the question, but somewhat unlikely. Maybe the Internet give new opportunities which have never existed before, but I'm not sure. Various religious groups are pretty high on the list - and have been for a couple of thousand years!

Vortex wrote:Certain factories could be protected from looting, food & resources stores could be created/protected, transport & communications links & equipment could be protected.

Ehh.. Which factories? The few we have left here in the west are highly specialized and totally integrated in the global logistics infrastructure. The steel in the buildings could prove useful though. Everything will have to be re-built on a lower level. This is no big deal, the human world is constantly in decay and is being rebuilt all the time anyhow..

Vortex wrote:I'm fairly sure that a modern - but small - society could rise from the ashes ... possibly using the carcase of the old society as a resource base.

Yes. Just look at Russia again. You may not like what you see though...

Vortex wrote:I'm not talking about people who buy a house in the country and fill it with tinned food ... they have no chance long term.
I am thinking of a more planned long term approach.

Such a scheme would have to be planned well in advance.

So .. do you think that anyone is making such plans?

Well, at least you certainly seem to have started thinking!

Vortex wrote:Could we detect their activities?

Tssk... Spill the beans on the net like that.. gotcha!

Hmmm ? interesting. Perhaps what we have been working on in NET might fall into this. We have been planning for building a network of communities and have wheels in motion to bring them about.

You have bought land. Is that not also a buffer - or a run for the hills response?

Good question! When we stand on our new 5 acres we think "Oh gosh, what the heck have we done?"

I just think we are unable to visualise the changes sufficiently to make all the preparations required for generations to come. Our best model of life without oil remains the pre-industrial era - unromantic as that seems.

This is the key point! Out there somewhere there MUST be a few "can do" types who believe they can craft a technological "business as usual" future for a limited population for at least two generations. You could conceivably stash sufficient rugged computers, medical systems, educational systems, books, tools, raw materials, music etc to sustain a (rigidly controlled) population for that duration of time.

If we were to build a huge starship which had to fly for say 200 years we could envisage provisioning it to last that time in flight. So why couldn't some groups consider doing the same to bridge Global Warming & Peak Oil?

We still live & work in buildings which are hundreds of years old. Very old delicate musical instruments are still in use. Very old books are still around. None of these were deliberately designed to survive for centuries ... but they have. I suggest that items DELIBERATELY designed to survive centuries could indeed be produced.

As a flight of fancy, I can envisage a rugged solar powered portable "Oracle" being produced in quantity. This device would be a personal education device which could cover education from primary school to advanced level. It could include medical tuition, science tuition, music, art etc. Such as device would be useful TODAY for distribution to poorer countries. If some tens of thousands of these gadgets were produced, many would survive for a LONG time.

We do NOT need to slide into an ignorant, pre-industrial world if/when GW and/or PO strike hard.

The most popular thought amoungst the PO aware currently seems to be get out of debt and learn to farm.

Lovely images of baskets of veg and happy kids playing recorders - arhh.

The reality is that unless we dump our debt on someone else by selling stuff (houses, cars etc) getting out of debt isn't going to come quickly for the great majority of individuals who are currently stuck with it.

As for farming our 1 - 5 acre small holding and being able to live that way We'll still need clothes, petrol, water from the tap, tins of stuff, equipment, some entertainment and that must come from somewhere and we can't live in isolation that way - what about the other 60 million of us (I say 60 million because do we really believe for one minute that the small minority of land owners in the UK are going to sell us sheeple the land to "live the life" in the first place?).

We are all stuck in the problem/solution groove, too set in the belief that if we can identify the problem then its just one step to the solution; I really don't see that life goes that way.

Maybe we should all challenge ourselves to find the activities within ourselves which will keep us afloat in the challenging years that lie ahead.
Maybe the best attributes to have are an open mind and a philosophy which accepts that things are going to change radically, plans need to be regularly reviewed and changed and that skills are more useful than possessions.

Maybe it would be more enjoyable and fruitful to give up ideas of ownership of land and property in favour of enjoying what life gives us today.

The idea that we should scout about and tap into someone elses plan for survival maybe sound but wouldn't it be more sound to make one for yourself?

We should be looking to form our own region groups; they would provide a good place for support if nothing else.

One of the main faults of our current society is that we have been trained (brainwashed) to look to others for our salvation (at all levels).

The region part of this forum is very quiet (except for London and South West). One solution (ha ha) to Vortex's question would be to step up the regional activity and start forming some good strategies here.

A bit of a side issue but I watched Its not easy being green last night - an absolutely gorgeous house is being built using sustainable? oak and its going to be green, green, green. The cost a nifty ?700,000 Yoh - what an example - something we can aspire to. The wife of the couple said that they had worked for 20 years for it, her husband had had to busk for the deposit for their first house (poor thing). No doubt it would be much less easy being green if she was having to convert an existing building (maybe on a council estate or inner city). Ummm, think I must have choked on the bitter pill this morning. Still waiting for the day when (as careful-eugene has experienced) a total stranger comes up to me and knows a little more about what is really going on in this world.

Pippa wrote: The reality is that unless we dump our debt on someone else by selling stuff (houses, cars etc) getting out of debt isn't going to come quickly for the great majority of individuals who are currently stuck with it.

Indeed if the recent Video about Money is anything to go by, it is not possible for everyone to pay back their debts as there is less money in the world than debt! (Due to all the interest that must be paid back on borrowed money.)

So debt will happen big time! As will debt defaulting! etc.etc.

And where do we all want to be in the heap?

Of course there will be some totally unexpected reshufflings of assets, but I know I'd rather enter the game with as many solid assets as I can. Also as few debts as possible.

We can all see the problem. I for one can see no solution that will be good for everybody. Somebody will loose. Everyone will loose! How many will survive? Who will benefit most? Who will loose most?

There is no answer.

I think this is why we all debate so long. We would love there to be one: a happy ending to the story.

Survival is the happy ending. What cost survival?

Well, I wonder what?s wrong with forming groups with a few like minded people? Then networking with other groups? A few people here and a few people there each working on their own little patch but able to call upon others for support. Also, one group could start to produce things that are used by other groups such as clothes etc. The next group and then the next, that way you can go beyond just surviving.

Blimey. Surely were talking about re-inventing local trade here.

Some of what we talk about is being done by the transition town groups. Incedentally how many here have anything to do with a transition town inititative?

SunnyJim wrote:Blimey. Surely were talking about re-inventing local trade here.

That could be part of it, but you might also view it as a form of distributed manufacturing as well. Rather than just trading they are actually all part of one system that just happens to be spread out rather than all located in one place.

SunnyJim wrote:Incedentally how many here have anything to do with a transition town inititative?

So far I'm still tackling the "transition persona initiative" and making a few in-roads into the "transition family and friends initiative" and the "transition house initiative".

I live in a big (5 million+) city and I doubt whether such a thing as a transition town initiative would be feasible on this scale yet. I guess such things really need to gain momentum on a village and town level first.