http://www.peakoilstore.com/forum/index.php/topic,1534.0.html wrote:I think all of us are aware that there is a considerable Naval build up in the Persian Gulf, that Patriot missiles are currently being shipped to the Middle East to "protect friendly Arab nations" , that additional troops are being deployed to Iraq and that the media is rife with "The Iranian Nuclear Threat", despite unbiased research that this is not an imminent threat and that Iran will need civilian nuclear power to offset declining oil production if it is to remain a modern civilized nation. The air is thick with rumours of impending attack and there is speculation that orders have already been given.
It also is apparent that Israel will take the initiative to attack Iran if America fails to do so and there is some evidence that they have already been thwarted by the US in actually carrying out a nuclear attack. Many analysts and think tanks are busy predicting the outcome of such an attack as evidenced by the recent report issued by ING.
While this attack on Iran is clearly being contemplated by the US and Israel as serving in the interests of dollar hegemony and control of the entire Middle Eastern oil reserves might there not be other forces at work?? Might the US and Israel be the victims of an elaborate trap designed to destroy arguably the most dangerous power alignment to ever threaten the Earth?? Could this possibly be true?? Let?s examine geopolitical events of late from this perspective.
First let?s understand the ramifications of the coalition that Putin is forming between India, China, Russia and Brazil. This will reshape the United Nations. Russia and China are permanent members of the security council, India and Brazil are soon perhaps to be. This coalition has three fourths of the world?s population, the largest amount of natural resources, and the largest pool of technical and scientific talent. Note also that in 2004 the IAEA issued Brazil a permit to commence the experimental stage of uranium enrichment.
This is far from the whole picture as the coalition automatically includes the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is presently comprised of China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Iran.
Then there was the announcement of a China-Kazakhstan pipeline agreement, worth $3.5 billion dollars and then the signing of a huge natgas deal between Beijing and Tehran worth $100 billion. This entails the annual export of some 10 million tons of Iranian liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a 25-year period, as well as granting to China's state oil company participation in such projects as exploration and drilling, industries, pipelines, services and the like.
It should be clear that this deal puts Iran firmly under China's protection, because any US attack on Iran will impact directly on Chinese National Security by severing its energy resources. It should also be noted that Iran has full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and overall protection by the Russian-Chinese Axis. Perhaps this explains the recent and very publicised test of a Chinese anti satellite system??
I don?t think anyone has any doubts of the importance of Middle Eastern and Caspian Basin oil to the continuance of US economic and military dominance, but what makes us think that the coalition led by Russia and China is impotent? Lets look at the non nuclear conventional weapons balance and possible strategies of this coalition.
Onyx and Sunburn missiles. These are manufactured in Russia and India, and thousands have been sold to China and Iran. Nuclear capable, mach 2+, flying 20 feet of the surface they are capable of destroying any target within a distance of 250 kms. The US or its allies have no countermeasures. The kinetic energy combined with a small conventional charge is more than enough to sink a carrier. These missiles can be launched from quad tubes on ships, singly from 40' flatbed trucks or fighter aircraft. These missiles are widely dispersed in Iran. They are considered "the most dangerous missile in the world" by US military planners.
S-300 anti air missiles. Both Iran and Syria have recently been equipped with the very latest version of this missile, the S-300PMU-2. The range of this missile is in excess of 125 miles, with the ability to acquire and kill targets flying as low as 30 feet. The Russians routinely shoot down random target drones travelling at 5,800 feet per second, and further claim the weapon is easily capable of destroying targets approaching at up to 15,500 feet per second, or Mach 14. Many experts credit this missile as the finest anti air missile in existence. It is rumoured to be able to sniff out and destroy a B-2 stealth bomber
Cruise missiles. Ukrainian arms dealers smuggled 18 nuclear-capable cruise missiles to Iran and China in 1999-2001 according to Ukraine's prosecutor-general. The Soviet-era Kh-55 missiles - also known as X-55s - have a maximum range of 2,500km (1,550 miles).
It should be clear by now that a conventional bombing attack on Iran could be disastrous and that the Russian-Chinese coalition means business and has already outmanoeuvred the US and its allies in the future exploitation of the Caspian Basin reserves. What is in contention now is the future of the Middle East. America risks loss of not only its current supplies from the Middle East from an Iran bombing campaign, which would likely be at least temporarily be disrupted in a wider conflagration, but also the loss of its Gulf of Mexico oil and onshore refining capability.
Unmentioned till now is Hugo Chavez, and Venezuela. Russia has supplied Hugo with 55 Mig29SMTs, Russia?s latest air superiority fighter. These are equipped with the latest Russian plasma stealth system and also equipped to fire the latest generation of Onyx missiles, and intelligence sources report that Hugo is in possession of at least 40 of these missiles. They are based in Venezuela and Cuba. In less than 30 minutes every major US Gulf of Mexico oil platform and oil refinery could be destroyed, with no warning.
The loss or disruption of the current Middle Eastern and Venezuelan oil imports combined with the loss of our Gulf oil and onshore refining capability would collapse the US within 60 days, without the use of any nuclear weapons. It seems evident this is the Russian-Chinese coalition general plan.
America has been manoeuvred into a position where it can no longer gain an ever increasing share of oil resources and maintain dollar hegemony without executing an Iranian attack. America is faced with the prospect of gradual loss of economic and military might, or risking a potentially catastrophic attack, an attack that Israel is determined to execute, whether or not supported by the US.
The only way out of this scenario is for the US to use nuclear weapons, testing the resolve of the rest of the world to retaliate. The ultimate game of chicken. I hesitate to predict how this scenario would play out...
