PowerSwitch

OK, I know we can't actually answer this one for a variety of reasons, but I was interested to know what people think. What prompted me to ask is I read somewhere that we haven't produced above the level of last December this year. I checked out the data from the EIA (which doesn't include "natural gas plants liquids"), and it gave these figures: or in graphical form:



So what do people think? The "noise" is probably bigger than the trend, so maybe it is pointless to speculate, but there is certainly a month-on-month trend from 05 to 06 that wasn't there in previous years, and there were rising prices early this year.

Does anyone know where to get more up-to-date production figures?

I voted "doesn't matter" (though I wonder if it has...). The reason is that I am so completely convinced now that I need to move radically towards a sustainable way of life, I'm going to be doing it anyway, and at the quickest rate I can (within reason). If Peak is years away, I'll have plenty of time to get used to a new way of life, if it's already passed - well I'm going as quickly as I reasonably can anyway. One thing's for certain - even if Peak Oil was suddenly not a problem, I'd still carry on down the same path now anyway.

World slowing down, OPEC preparing to cut production, oil production teetering on a plateau, big drive towards energy efficiency, high oil prices dampening demand. I would guess that production won't reach above its previous peak as a result of these factors, rather than physical availability at this moment in time.

But by the time the capacity and demand and price enable production to reach higher levels, maybe the physical capability won't be there?

So probably not peaked in terms of geological availability but as a result of world situation (high energy prices, demand contraction, economic slow-down etc.).

Pure speculation.

Is it the bumpy plateau?

kenneal wrote:Is it the bumpy plateau?

I think so.

Light crude is in my opinion past the peak, the rest is tough even now and it will only be worse.

I put 'don't know'. I suspect we're close - so much depends on a few key variables like where Saudi is going to be in 4 years. Is Ghawar speeding down the downslope? Will the frenzy off drilling and re-engineering there result in gains in production or merely a mitigation of decline?

Chris Skrebowski's work is what I would turn to first to answer most of these questions - but even that's essentially (highly) educated guesswork.

I hope things stay fairly stable for the next few years at least - I think a spike upwards in production would be a chimera that could support a horribly short-sighted business as usual response. A large decline could be distastrous. A plateau might be the best thing, but this is pure speculation on my part. There is no good scenario. However, given than there is a finite amount of oil, the more we consume today the less there will be available in the future if we're being economically crushed by depletion.

Let's all hope for a US recession to break us in gently and put off the dreaded day.

I'm 100% with Mike on this one.

mikepepler wrote:I voted "doesn't matter" (though I wonder if it has...). The reason is that I am so completely convinced now that I need to move radically towards a sustainable way of life, I'm going to be doing it anyway, and at the quickest rate I can (within reason). If Peak is years away, I'll have plenty of time to get used to a new way of life, if it's already passed - well I'm going as quickly as I reasonably can anyway. One thing's for certain - even if Peak Oil was suddenly not a problem, I'd still carry on down the same path now anyway.

I also am 100% with Mike

Me too. In fact sometimes I suspect I am in love with peak oil because it pushes me in the direction of doing what in my heart always felt like the right thing to do anyway, both for the planet, for the rest of humanity and for myself.

Tess wrote:Me too. In fact sometimes I suspect I am in love with peak oil because it pushes me in the direction of doing what in my heart always felt like the right thing to do anyway, both for the planet, for the rest of humanity and for myself.

That's an interesting thought... there's a paper in there somewhere.

Mike - I have taken a copy of your image. Do you mind if I use it? I will start by posting it on my main website.

http://john.hemming.name/national/hasoilpeaked.html

John Hemming MP

I'd be very careful before using this data to point at a peak. Firstly, consider the datapoint for Dec 2003, and see how we're lower than that number all the way through May 2004. What if you'd claimed 'peak!' then? And even this year, the average of Jan-June is slightly higher than Jan-June in 05. Furthermore, December is a time of peak refiner demand after the October and November maintenance season, and so one might not see December supply exceeded until the following winter if demand growth is sluggish.

Also I'm dubious as to the merit of looking solely at numbers for conventional liquids. For sure this will peak first, if it hasn't already, but so what? This tells us very little about how long we can go on growing unconventional supply. What argument are we trying to make? Even the cornucopians would be unsurprised at conventional oil peaking. They just expect other sources of fuel to economagically appear in its place - and that's the mindset we need to chip away at.

A Manhattan-style project to optimise heavy oil production & refining from Alberta and/or Orinico could make a major difference.

The scale of the resources at both sites means that such a "push" could indeed attract the required investment.

It will however take some years before the price of oil justifies such an investment.

The delay from investment to production will almost certainly mean that we will encounter a significant supply shortfall for several years, whatever happens in the mid to long term.

We should probably expect an unavoidable turbulent & difficult few years around 2008-2015 or so ... at the very minimum.

johnhemming wrote:Mike - I have taken a copy of your image. Do you mind if I use it? I will start by posting it on my main website.

http://john.hemming.name/national/hasoilpeaked.html

Feel free, but take account of what Tess said - this is not a proof of peak, I posted it to provoke discussion. As I said, I voted "doesn't matter"

If you would like the spreadsheet behind it, and some more complex ones, drop me a PM or email.