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The apparently coordinated assaults have been blamed by Iran’s hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saudi Arabia and, whatever the truth of the allegation, they are likely to have a big political impact far beyond Iran, stoking tensions with the US, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim monarchies of the Gulf.

Islamic State quickly claimed responsibility – if true, it would mean the militant group has finally succeeded in importing its divisive brand of random terror into the home of its principal Shia Muslim adversary.

Sarajevo 1914, Doha 2017? We could be at a historic moment akin to the assassination of the heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which resulted in what became known as the Great War. This time, though, the possible clash is between a Saudi-United Arab Emirates force and Iran. Washington is going to have to act quickly to stop the march to war, rather than wait for the carnage to begin.

The nominal target of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is Qatar, which has long diverged from the Arab Gulf consensus over Iran. Riyadh and a growing list of Arab countries broke ties Monday with the gas-rich emirate, and Saudi Arabia announced that it had halted permission for Qatari overflights, closed the land border, and banned ships bound for Qatar transiting its waters. This is a casus belli by almost any definition. For perspective, the Six-Day War, which occurred 50 years ago this week, was prompted by Egypt’s closure of the Straits of Tiran, thus cutting off Israel’s access to the Red Sea.

In response, Iran reportedly announced it will allow Qatar to use three of its ports to collect the food imports on which the country is dependent — a gesture that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will probably see as only confirming Doha’s treacherous ties with Tehran.

Saudi Arabia and its allies have issued an extraordinary ultimatum to Qatar that sets the stage for a dramatic escalation of the confrontation that began with the imposition of a diplomatic and economic blockade in early June. Qatar has been given 10 days to agree to a sweeping list of 13 demands or face unspecified consequences. Acquiescence would transform the tiny, energy-rich Gulf state into a political vassal of Riyadh.

The demands, which were published yesterday, are a calculated provocation, which, as Saudi Arabia and its allies understand only too well, will almost certainly be rejected. According to the Associated Press (AP), Qatar’s neighbours are insisting that their demands are a bottom line—that is, non-negotiable—and are warning of further penalties beyond the existing restrictions on air, sea and land routes.

Yousef al-Otaiba, United Arab Emirates (UAE) ambassador to the US, told AP that there would be “no military element� to the sanctions on Qatar, but no credence can be placed in this assurance. The imposition of a blockade by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain is tantamount to an act of war and provides ample opportunity for a provocation that could precipitate military conflict.

As Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets points out in a new note, Trump in the White House means that MBS will encounter minimum opposition from Washington and a far freer hand in pursuing his ambitions in the region. Arms deals to help him pursue them follow naturally.

The dangers are obvious – a newly empowered young prince unafraid, as we have seen in Yemen and now Qatar, to pursue regional conflict, emboldened by a world superpower.

The Saudi ultimatum ends on July 3, the anniversary of the Saudi sponsored military coup against the Qatari backed Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt. One demand in the ultimatum is for Qatar to end all support for the Brotherhood.

The ultimatum will likely be rejected. Qatar will simply not respond until the Saudis and others lift their blockade of the country. If the Saudis want war they should launch it right away, the Qatari ruler thinks. Doha is sure that the U.S. will not allow that. Ten-thousand U.S. troops are stationed in Qatar. It hosts a major U.S. air base and the important Central Command, which leads the war against ISIS and Syria. Qatar just bought U.S. fighter jets for $12 billion and is offering to take a 10% share of American Airlines.

Turkish troops have arrived to protect the sheikdom. One unexpected Saudi demand is that all Turkish troops leave Qatar. The Erdogan government, a Muslim Brotherhood branch, responded with a snippy "Make me do so":

This convoluted trail of events does corroborate the famous December 2015 memo by the BND – German intelligence, according to which the House of Saud had adopted “an impulsive policy of intervention�, with then Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince MBS, a “gambler�, bound to cause a lot of trouble.