PowerSwitch

Between June 2005 and May 2006 China?s demand rose by 600,000 barrels a day, and during the same period its? production rose by 100,000 barrels per day.

For the same period US demand stayed static and production fell by 460,000 barrels per day.

For the same period OPEC?s output fell by 770,000 barrels per day.

Nigerian oil production, in a global context, is negligible. I don?t have the figures for Russian, European and South American production and consumption. But if it is assumed production and consumption is static, the above figures show a global reduction of supply, in relation to demand, of 1,730,000 barrels per day, or 2.143% (based on total global consumption of 80,727,420 barrels per day from 2005).

Nymex Crude Future currently stands at $73.85 per barrel. A small event that disrupts oil supply will almost certainly cause crude to hit $80 per barrel and a significant event will see prices in excess of $100 per barrel.

I think things are worse than most people imagine, and winter 2006 might the start of the meltdown. Governments are being secretive but the US, for example, is using commercial oil reserves (down 5% on last year to about 340,000,000 barrels) to keep ticking over, and the US strategic oil reserve is being depleted on the quiet (down from 750,000,000 barrels to who knows?)

The end in nigh ? repent you sinners.

The problem right now is being expressed not as a shortage of crude per se but a shortage of complex refining capacity that can upgrade poor quality (heavy sour) crude into gasoline. There is plenty of crude in storage around the world, and Iran and the Saudis were having to put excess production into storage on ULCC tankers. Unfortunately, the quality's not as good as it was. Those who are building new upgrading capacity (notably the Chinese) will do well in the next few years, until we reach peak of all liquids (not just the good stuff) which one suspects will be around 2010-2015 the way things are going - unless coal liquefaction kicks off in a big way.

ToY wrote: I think things are worse than most people imagine, and winter 2006 might the start of the meltdown. Governments are being secretive but the US, for example, is using commercial oil reserves (down 5% on last year to about 340,000,000 barrels) to keep ticking over, and the US strategic oil reserve is being depleted on the quiet (down from 750,000,000 barrels to who knows?)

Actually the US commercial crude oil reserves stand at 343.7mn barrels, which is 4.1% UP on last year.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petr ... table1.txt

Crude in the SPR totals 688.6mn barrels, down from 695.7mn last year. They're quite strict about only giving the SPR supplies out when a logistical problem occurs, such as a hurricane or last week's closure of a Louisiana shipping channel. They are going to have a hard time refilling it with prices as high as they are.