The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
https://forum.powerswitch.org.uk/
http://peakoilbarrel.com/will-2015-peak-oil/I am of the firm conviction that the world is at the peak of world oil production right now, or was at that point three or four months ago. I think history will show that the 12 months of September 2014 through August 2015 will be the one year peak. Whether the calendar year peak is 2014 or 2015 is the only thing still in question, or that is my opinion anyway.
Agree. In years to come I suspect that the oil price will recover substantially, thereby making unconventional oil economic again. However I also expect that by then that conventional oil production will have declined to the extent that the total of conventional oil plus newly revived unconventional oil will never again exceed present/very near future total production.biffvernon wrote:Conventional oil peaked in 2005 and now that unconventional is no longer financially viable... yep, this could be right.
So let the Saudies sell there oil now for cheap. Once Anwar finally waters out all the as yet unfracked shale will still be there and it can then be fracked and pumped dry at high prices without any competition.But how will a global economy, devastated by the loss of cheap to extract, high EROEI oil be able to afford high cost shale oil?vtsnowedin wrote:...the as yet unfracked shale will still be there and it can then be fracked and pumped dry at high prices without any competition.
Most of it won't. Only the military and the rich will buy it.clv101 wrote:But how will a global economy, devastated by the loss of cheap to extract, high EROEI oil be able to afford high cost shale oil?vtsnowedin wrote:...the as yet unfracked shale will still be there and it can then be fracked and pumped dry at high prices without any competition.
That question was answered by Ilargi of The Automatic Earth: Price Discovery and Emerging Marketsclv101 wrote:But how will a global economy, devastated by the loss of cheap to extract, high EROEI oil be able to afford high cost shale oil?vtsnowedin wrote:...the as yet unfracked shale will still be there and it can then be fracked and pumped dry at high prices without any competition.
Regardless of the cost charged a barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of eight YEARS of hard physical human labor. As the EROEI goes down all economies will use it more wisely but we will certainly stop just burning it to heat homes that are poorly insulated or to boil water.clv101 wrote:But how will a global economy, devastated by the loss of cheap to extract, high EROEI oil be able to afford high cost shale oil?vtsnowedin wrote:...the as yet unfracked shale will still be there and it can then be fracked and pumped dry at high prices without any competition.
well that's my goose cooked.Well your aware of the situation and working the problem. Perhaps some insulation added to the old part if you need that space heated?PS_RalphW wrote:
Still its only the 300 year old part of the house that is uninsulated, and right now the wood burner is really toasting me.
New condensing boiler this year, and electric car if I get a new job .
This is something I've been telling people too, oil is the bargain of all time. I'm very tempted to buy some more diesel for my stash.vtsnowedin wrote:Regardless of the cost charged a barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of eight YEARS of hard physical human labor. As the EROEI goes down all economies will use it more wisely but we will certainly stop just burning it to heat homes that are poorly insulated or to boil water.clv101 wrote:But how will a global economy, devastated by the loss of cheap to extract, high EROEI oil be able to afford high cost shale oil?vtsnowedin wrote:...the as yet unfracked shale will still be there and it can then be fracked and pumped dry at high prices without any competition.
There is a collapse in the price of oil but there is a definite time lag that will distort the true picture for a while yet.Wolf Richter wrote:Yet, even as capital expenditures are getting slashed brutally, companies have not lowered their production forecasts.
And they won’t, at least not for a while; they’ll keep pumping at the maximum rate possible, especially now that revenues from unhedged production have been plunging – while the costs of servicing their mountains of debt have remained the same, and rolling over that debt has become a lot more expensive. Cutting back on exploration, drilling, and completion stems the cash outflow, but it doesn’t cut production, not until the decline rates of existing shale wells start making a visible dent into it.
So investors see blood in the streets. And it’s the signal. The four largest exchange-traded oil-related funds – including the largest oil fund, USO – had inflows of $1.23 billion in December, the most since May 2010, and $110 million during the first few days of January, Bloomberg reported. These investors are betting on a quick rebound of the price of oil. A sign that there isn’t nearly enough blood in the streets yet.