PowerSwitch

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2011 ... t-deprived

So how did Jaywick – or more specifically the Brooklands estate – get here, having overtaken Breckfield in Anfield, Liverpool? Despite its problems, Jaywick still possesses character. It's the largest surviving example of the "plotlands" movement of the 1920s and 1930s, when land was sold off in little strips, usually to city dwellers longing for a piece of paradise.

Jaywick Sands was built in 1928 as a resort by Fabian property developer Frank Stedman. He marketed them as "chalets" but people lived in their two-bedroom bungalows all year round. One local recalled his father had bought the house off-plan at an exhibition in London.

After the second world war most plotlands were bulldozed but the Jaywick residents hung on, even going to court in 1970 and succeeded in preserving it. There is a proud tradition of self-reliance.

Within the next 24 hours I fully expect UKIP to score a major success in Clacton. There may even be a new thread on here about that. Just wondered if we could have our own take on one particular part of the constituency...

Jaywick has no rationale for existence in today's economy. Before industrialisation it would have been a coastal swamp, inhabited (if at all) by subsistence fishermen and farmers. Only tourism, facilitated by the surplus wealth of fossil-fuelled industrialisation, made Jaywick possible.

It is difficult to get to, and has no major natural resource to act as a centre of gravity for industry. Trouble is, technology has leapfrogged the place. You could say it would be a possible location for those who "telecommute" or work via the internet in creative businesses. But it already has a deprived reputation, and there are far more attractive places now within the reach of high speed broadband. So it's stuck in no-mans land; too far from anywhere physically to be a viable place to set up a business or to commute from, and too unattractive to be a competitor for cyber-workers.

Nobody would want to go there, and those who are there are probably trapped by debt and/or tight cash-flow. (Have you seen how much it costs to up sticks and move if you are in the private rented sector these days?)

Its saving grace could be the arrival of a major employer, maybe in a sea-related business, such as servicing the offshore renewables industry, but it would take a major investment in infrastructure, and in a transport link to the Thames Gateway area in particular, for this to be even a remote possibility.

As for UKIP, I'm not so sure. I watched the mini "Question Time" style debate from Clacton on the BBC News Channel the other night. It had all the main candidates on the panel. The new Tory guy was local, urbane, in touch and communicated well. By comparison, Douglas Carswell came across, IMHO, as defensive and aloof. UKIP seem to be betting on a combination of rising UKIP popularity and a local "known quantity". But the area had a demonstrably Tory majority at the last election (hence Carswell being elected).

It will probably hang on:
a) How many disaffected, potentially UKIP-voting, Jaywick /Clacton residents register to vote, and
b) How many actually show up at the polling station
c) Will this be enough to dislodge the Frinton-based Conservative voters.

i.e. will this have created a "Scottish Referendum" style rise in political engagement among those who haven't bothered before.

Of course, the wild card is how many people are / were "Douglas Carswell" voters, irrespective of party, and how many have been p*ssed off by his defection.

I think Nigel Farage has called this one wrong. Faced with Douglas Carswell's defection, I think my reaction would have been; "That's fantastic Douglas. Great to have you on board. Now, we'd like you to contest..let me see..the Devon West seat in next May's election." And then bring in a neutral candidate to contest the by-election.

Of course, I could be 180 degrees about-face wrong! Guess we'll see tomorrow.

Did a picture search for Jaywick Sands and this came up. Not sure it can be real...

Tarrel wrote:
I think Nigel Farage has called this one wrong. Faced with Douglas Carswell's defection, I think my reaction would have been; "That's fantastic Douglas. Great to have you on board. Now, we'd like you to contest..let me see..the Devon West seat in next May's election." And then bring in a neutral candidate to contest the by-election.

Of course, I could be 180 degrees about-face wrong! Guess we'll see tomorrow.

I think UKIP will win the seat. Why? Because I think Carswell will pick up plenty of votes from people who have no intention of voting UKIP in a general election. What those people want is a Tory government which will take the UK out of the EU. Voting UKIP in a by-election gives them a chance to send that message loud and clear, without risking anything at government level. In other words, I think that even if UKIP win the by-election, they will probably lose the seat back to the Tories in May.

UndercoverElephant wrote:Did a picture search for Jaywick Sands and this came up. Not sure it can be real...

What? A bit of putty and paint and she'll be as good as new. A home to call your own you can be proud of.

UndercoverElephant wrote:

Tarrel wrote:
I think Nigel Farage has called this one wrong. Faced with Douglas Carswell's defection, I think my reaction would have been; "That's fantastic Douglas. Great to have you on board. Now, we'd like you to contest..let me see..the Devon West seat in next May's election." And then bring in a neutral candidate to contest the by-election.

Of course, I could be 180 degrees about-face wrong! Guess we'll see tomorrow.

I think UKIP will win the seat. Why? Because I think Carswell will pick up plenty of votes from people who have no intention of voting UKIP in a general election. What those people want is a Tory government which will take the UK out of the EU. Voting UKIP in a by-election gives them a chance to send that message loud and clear, without risking anything at government level. In other words, I think that even if UKIP win the by-election, they will probably lose the seat back to the Tories in May.

OK, I was 180 degrees about-face wrong!

Tarrel wrote:

UndercoverElephant wrote:

Tarrel wrote:
I think Nigel Farage has called this one wrong. Faced with Douglas Carswell's defection, I think my reaction would have been; "That's fantastic Douglas. Great to have you on board. Now, we'd like you to contest..let me see..the Devon West seat in next May's election." And then bring in a neutral candidate to contest the by-election.

Of course, I could be 180 degrees about-face wrong! Guess we'll see tomorrow.

I think UKIP will win the seat. Why? Because I think Carswell will pick up plenty of votes from people who have no intention of voting UKIP in a general election. What those people want is a Tory government which will take the UK out of the EU. Voting UKIP in a by-election gives them a chance to send that message loud and clear, without risking anything at government level. In other words, I think that even if UKIP win the by-election, they will probably lose the seat back to the Tories in May.

OK, I was 180 degrees about-face wrong!

Makes the situation very interesting next May. We would have been expecting a hung parliament anyway, and now we've got UKIP eating away at both the tory and labour vote. It's very hard to predict what is going to happen, but my gut instinct tells me UKIP are going to win between 10 and 20 seats, the libdems are going to be slaughtered and labour will return the most MPs to Westminster, in a hung parliament.

I think Cameron will be shitting himself. Not sure what he can do in response though.

Nah, people will see sense and the Greens will win the ~500 seats they stand in.

Don't forget the SNP. A Panelbase poll of voting intentions in Scotland last week showed a potential swing giving the SNP 18 seats (currently 6), and Conservatives 3 (currently 1), at the xpense of Labour and the Lib Dems (-7 each). Greens have had a remarkable surge of support since the referendum (party membership has, I believe, tripled), but the Panelbase analysis doesn't predict them winning any seats. "First past the post" strikes again.

With regard to the Lib Dems, there is the "incumbent" factor (a well-liked MP who will still win votes, irrespective of his party colour), which may mitigate the Lib Dems' wipe-out to some extent.

Although our current voting system means it will take a literal earthquake to dislodge the two main parties' position of dominance in Westminster, I can see the parliament gradually resembling that of a European country (e.g. A more equal split of the seats among a larger number of parties, and coalition becoming more the norm).

It's amusing to see the two main parties at their conferences, still clinging to the idea of absolute power (i.e. An overall majority in parliament) in their rhetoric. And we all know what "absolute power" does...