Three Nails in the Coffin of Peak Oil

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10093#more

Interesting overview of the current status of peak oil.

What is clear is that we are facing the long grind rather than the sudden collapse. Peak oil is a process not a event.

[Little John]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10093#more

Interesting overview of the current status of peak oil.

What is clear is that we are facing the long grind rather than the sudden collapse. Peak oil is a process not a event.

Some of us always considered we were in for the long grind.

Unless, of course, someone decides to let off a few fireworks and close the shop up early. Always a possibility as times get steadily tougher. Maybe it would be a blessing, in the long run.

One way or another we crash (alone) or we burn (and take the rest of life with us). The odds are shifting slightly towards burning at the moment. Which, I must confess, I find more depressing than the prospect of crashing.

[clv101]

What is clear is that we are facing the long grind rather than the sudden collapse. Peak oil is a process not a event.

Which is what many of us having been saying all along... If you're looking for fast collapse, head over to LATOC, oh but it crashed!

[biffvernon]

The people expecting a fast crash aren't here discussing things on the Internet - they're up in the hills with beans and ammo.

[adam2]

I consider that a fast crash is possible, but that a slow descent is more likely and has already started.

IMHO a fast crash would not result from Peak Oil alone, but would have be percipitated by some other natural or man made disaster.
Examples could include nuclear war, large scale conventional war, or truly extreme weather related disasters.
Any of which might happen, but a slow steady slide seems more probable.

[Tarrel]

Agreed. I think that chronically high energy prices and rising competition for resources are introducing stresses into the system. Thus, an unexpected event (regional conflict, natural disaster, bank collapse, etc) could have a disproportionate effect, causing a "domino" style collapse.

It's interesting to look at the current and recent news headlines in isolation. Last year, if you just took the headlines at face value, things couldn't have looked bleaker. Now, things couldn't look rosier. In reality, we're probably experiencing the fits and starts postulated by Kunstler, Greer and others in a slow-collapse scenario. One step forward, two steps back.

Regarding peak-oil, if we did hit the peak in around 2005, and are now experiencing the consequences of being at the peak, it makes sense for discussions around peak oil to have waned. Many of the blogs and podcasts around seem to be focusing on either the consequences of peak oil (financial, social, geopolitical) or the increasingly apparent impacts of climate change, rather than on peak oil itself.

[biffvernon]

The crash may be be hard to identify. On the news this morning was the EU coming out of recession, technically, and the army killing people on the streets of Cairo, actually.

Nobody should expect the crash to be evenly distributed.

[adam2]

And the traditional "boom and bust" cycle might carry on for decades yet, but with each boom being a bit smaller, and each bust being a bit deeper.

I would agree that the economy IS recovering to an extent, and that more recovery is probable.
I expect some recovery in real average wages, living standards and so on, I dont however expect this recovery to reclaim ALL the recent lost ground.
The present small recovery will be followed by another recession, probably a bit worse than the last one.

[biffvernon]

I expect some recovery in real average wages, living standards and so on,

We haven't seen any of that though.

[Catweazle]

I had a conversation with Mrs C last night in which we tried to work out what actually counts as an economic recovery.

GDP doesn't, we've seen it go up because of a hard winter forcing people to buy more gas. FTSE100 doesn't, it's at record levels because interest rates are being held down. Property prices ? Nope, they're artificially high because of Govt action to protect the banks.

These are the yardsticks often quoted in the news, and they're meaningless, surely our standard of living is the real measure - I don't see that going up.

[Catweazle]

On the fast / slow crash question - I have expected a long, slow crash for years and that still seems likely for most of the world.

However, the fact that the UK currently has a debt to GDP ratio nearly as high as the Wiemar Republic immediately pre-crash makes me wonder if we can expect a Greek tragedy of our own. Perhaps it's time to stock up on beans, coal and water filters after all.

[adam2]

On the fast / slow crash question - I have expected a long, slow crash for years and that still seems likely for most of the world.

However, the fact that the UK currently has a debt to GDP ratio nearly as high as the Wiemar Republic immediately pre-crash makes me wonder if we can expect a Greek tragedy of our own. Perhaps it's time to stock up on beans, coal and water filters after all.

I already have done.

[JohnB]

I had a conversation with Mrs C last night in which we tried to work out what actually counts as an economic recovery.

0.01% increase in GDP, rather than -0.01%, using numbers that are probably accurate to +/- 10-20%

[biffvernon]

I had a conversation with Mrs C last night in which we tried to work out what actually counts as an economic recovery.

GDP doesn't, we've seen it go up because of a hard winter forcing people to buy more gas. FTSE100 doesn't, it's at record levels because interest rates are being held down. Property prices ? Nope, they're artificially high because of Govt action to protect the banks.

These are the yardsticks often quoted in the news, and they're meaningless, surely our standard of living is the real measure - I don't see that going up.

Excellent thoughts. But what is this thing 'standard of living' and why don't you see it going up?

My standard of living, at least for a third of the day, went up when we changed our old saggy mattress for a new firm but comfy one with woollen padding. But how does that feature in any statistics?

I'm pretty sure there is little correlation between what I judge to be my standard of living and the state of the economy as measured by any of the conventional means.

[vtsnowedin]

the actions of world leaders have flattened the top of the peak oil curve. Ksa not pumping as fast as they could to save some for future generations and the us blocking drilling over large areas offshore for example
this will make the cliff steeper when we get well into it.our present slow grind will probably accelerate.