How long before riots in the UK?

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 20 Jul 2013, 19:56

http://www.fwi.co.uk/articles/15/07/201 ... -plans.htm

It seems at present 40% of rape productin is exported for bio fuels!! Is this madness? To grow a high energy crop, it takes huge amounts of fertiliser inputs not to mention the other chemical inputs.

More than 2 millions tons of wheat go for bio-ethanol production. The projected total amount wheat going for fuel will be the equivalent of the whole production of Yorkshire.

We are told we have to accept GM crops as the claimed yeilds are needed to feed an increasing population.

This logic by politicians is unbelievable.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 21 Jul 2013, 09:45

And some folk think that Britain can't feed herself.

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 21 Jul 2013, 15:01

The world can afford to waste food at the moment these are still mighty fat times, when the world economy is in ruins, the country and world in turmoil I don’t think Britain will be able to feed itself.

When will we have riots could happen any day but they may not be that dangerous at first, where is it all heading real poverty, repressive govt more poverty, civil wars, anarchy, migrations and die-off .

Things haven’t even started to get tough yet

yup doom doom doom

Post by **adam2** » 21 Jul 2013, 15:22

I predict riots fairly soon, it is too hot right now!
I doubt however that that any such riots will be anything to do with crops for biofuels whether within the UK or for export.

Rioting is much more likely IMHO to start due to actual or alleged police brutaility, and then to morph into a general anti-establishment rioting season.
Will probably result in large scale theft of sports shoes and portable electronics.

A fair proportion of the underclass may well be disastisfied with the rising cost of living, and might riot to demand larger entitlements, but I doubt that riots specificly against biofuels are likely.

Many of the upper classes benifit from biofuels via subsidies or higher prices paid for crops.

Some of the light green middle classes are in favour of biofuels, believing that use of same permitts of driving the Range Rover everywhere with a clean consience.

Some of the working classes, at least in rural areas, may support biofuels on the grounds of increased rural employment.

A regretably large proportion of the entitlement classes probably neither know nor care what biofuels are, or what consequences widespread use will have/is having. Of greater concern is the price of supermarket vodka and superstrong lager (which IS indirectly influenced by diverting grain to biofuels, but I bet that they dont know this) and by daytime trash TV.

And of course there is A ROYAL BABY on the way, which is of much greater importance to many people.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Jul 2013, 17:31

Midsummer is the traditional rioting season in Britain.

As for whether we can feed ourselves, maybe if we all ate lots of potatoes and other not-very-exciting sorts of food then we could do it. That wouldn't stop the riots in response to the lack of the imported treats that can't be grown in the UK.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 22 Jul 2013, 01:10

Biofuels are an important factor in arable agricultural profitability at the moment. With the cartel of supermarkets driving prices ever lower at a time of increasing input cost this source of profit external to the food chain is an important counter to supermarket purchasing power. The problems will come when the supermarkets can't purchase the required grains and food oils from abroad and they have to outbid the fuel market for UK sourced grains and oil seeds. That only requires a few more climate chain hit, bad food harvests to become a reality.

When the price of bread rockets there will be riots. The price of dairy products, poultry, pork and, to a lesser extent, beef, all grain fed, will then follow as UK farms go out of business because supermarkets won't pay the increased prices required to offset increased input costs. General shortages of food products will then follow further fuelling the riots. I blame the short sightedness and stupidity of supermarkets who can only market their wares on the basis of cheapness. They obviously haven't learned the lesson from the horse meat scandal.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 22 Jul 2013, 01:45

kenneal - lagger wrote:When the price of bread rockets there will be riots. The price of dairy products, poultry, pork and, to a lesser extent, beef, all grain fed, will then follow as UK farms go out of business because supermarkets won't pay the increased prices required to offset increased input costs. General shortages of food products will then follow further fuelling the riots. I blame the short sightedness and stupidity of supermarkets who can only market their wares on the basis of cheapness. They obviously haven't learned the lesson from the horse meat scandal.

I think your crystal ball has a bum transistor. The supermarkets will have to raise prices on meats and keep them on the shelves. To fail to do so would open the door back up to smaller outlets and that is the last thing they want. They will try to contract in advance all available product to control the supply and keep their costs as low as possible as well as shut out the competition. There will be plenty of meat but you won't be able to afford much of it.
The riots will start in earnest when the EBT cards (or whatever you Brits call government food stamps) stop working. Dark days ahead for sure.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 22 Jul 2013, 02:34

We don't have smaller outlets in most towns now and most suppliers are geared up to supply on supermarket scales. Meat suppliers might be able to change supply direction because their product has a relatively long shelf life - it can stay on the hoof for a while and then be frozen or chilled for a while. Milk producers on the other hand would go out of business quickly if the supermarkets didn't bump up prices quickly as they need the instant supply change because of the perishability of their product.

Post by **clv101** » 22 Jul 2013, 10:39

Whilst unemployment remains low (7.8% currently) serious riots/civil unrest are very unlikely.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 22 Jul 2013, 10:53

clv101 wrote:Whilst unemployment remains low (7.8% currently) serious riots/civil unrest are very unlikely.

7.8% Of the population is quite enough to stage very destructive riots. Rioters are usually the tip of the ice berg so to speak. Even Egypt with a million demonstrators in the streets has only one in eighty (1.25%) on their feet.

Post by **clv101** » 22 Jul 2013, 11:36

The point is 7.8% is a fairly low rate of unemployment - compared with previous highs, compared with other countries. It's also 7.8% of the working population so only around 2.5 million people in total.

I don't expect we'll see widespread civil unrest until unemployment exceeds 20%.

For example Greece is 27%, Spain 27%, Portugal 17%, Cyprus 16%, Ireland 14%, Italy 12% etc...

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 Jul 2013, 13:05

The last riots we've had followed a police shooting and don't seem to have been closely related to unemployment. In Spain the unemployment rate amongst younger people, the age group more prone to rioting, is around 40%. I guess they'll only riot tomorrow, mañana, mañana...

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 22 Jul 2013, 13:17

biffvernon wrote:...... riot tomorrow, mañana, mañana...

There's nothing that implies that urgency in the Greek language!

They have had a lot of rioting there but it has subsided with the onset of summer and the tourist season. The heat, some extra jobs and the desire not to upset the apple cart of tourism is at work there.

Post by **clv101** » 22 Jul 2013, 13:41

biffvernon wrote:The last riots we've had followed a police shooting and don't seem to have been closely related to unemployment. In Spain the unemployment rate amongst younger people, the age group more prone to rioting, is around 40%. I guess they'll only riot tomorrow, mañana, mañana...

I'm not saying that rioting can't happen with low unemployment, just that it's a lot less likely. Tottenham had the highest unemployment rate in London so the link is there. Anyway, what we had in 2011 weren't really the riots or civil unrest I'm thinking about, the potential magnitude for civil unrest is far higher - see North Africa and Middle East and that's not going to happen when 90+ percent of the workforce is employed.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 23 Jul 2013, 01:15

clv101 wrote:The point is 7.8% is a fairly low rate of unemployment - compared with previous highs, compared with other countries. It's also 7.8% of the working population so only around 2.5 million people in total.

I don't expect we'll see widespread civil unrest until unemployment exceeds 20%.

For example Greece is 27%, Spain 27%, Portugal 17%, Cyprus 16%, Ireland 14%, Italy 12% etc...

It might be more informative to look at the percentage that are both unemployed and without any government benefits. No need to get up from the couch if you have enough on your card to cover the beer and smokes.