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The real state of the economy

Posted: 21 May 2013, 22:20
by Lord Beria3
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40476.html
Lately Bank of England officials have been entertaining an amendment to the Inflation target to 3% or even higher, to coincide with money printing Mark Carney's arrival. So if 2% delivers an average inflation rate of 3.5%, what can we expect from a 3% Inflation target ? An average rate of 4.5%, with a trend oscillating between a rate of 7% to 2.5%, which is the probable UK inflation trajectory over the next 5 years, with real inflation averaging at 6% per annum.

At the rate the Bank of England is monetizing UK government debt by the end of 2015 more than 50% of UK government debt will have been bought by the Bank of England (current approx 1/3rd). However the consequences of what I termed as the Quantum of Quantitative Easing (July 2012) is that it will result in an further acceleration of the inflation trend which amounts to the stealth theft of purchasing power of wages and lifetime savings.
Watch out! Inflation is eating away at your wealth and gradually making the bulk of the population poorer every year.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/05 ... s-m20.html

As the Marxists say...
The chief base of support for the abrogation of democratic rights and the lurch towards a police state lies in the financial aristocracy, i.e., the tiny layer of multimillionaires and billionaires who have made spectacular fortunes by means of speculation, theft, criminality and corruption. This layer has grown even richer since the eruption of the global economic crisis in 2008, subsidized to the tune of trillions of dollars by the state, while the working class has been devastated by mass unemployment and austerity policies.

Democratic rights and historic reforms mean nothing to these kleptomaniacs, who view the broad mass of the population with extreme fear and hostility. Jealous of its ill-gotten gains, this layer supports police-state measures to violently suppress social opposition.

Behind Obama, and next to the financial aristocracy, stands a privileged middle class layer—approximately the top 90th to 99th percentile. Some within this layer maintain minor differences with the financial aristocrats on lifestyle, race, culture and identity issues. However, they depend on the existing setup for their privileged status, income and respectable positions in corporate management, university departments, law firms, the entertainment industry, the trade unions, NGOs, the media and so forth. On board for imperialist war and the defense of the capitalist system in general, this layer is prepared to go along with a police state if the alternative is a revolutionary overthrow of the system by the working class.

The vast majority of the American population—the bottom 80 to 90 percent—is wholly excluded from the official political life of the country. Obama does not address himself to them. Their interests are not taken into account in any major political decision. They do not matter.

Ask an American worker in that bottom 80 to 90 percent whether the First Amendment contains mere suggestions conditioned on “government interests,” or whether it guarantees absolute, inalienable rights. Ask whether the US president and military should have unlimited and unchecked powers for the indefinite future, up to and including the power to violently suppress “civil disturbances” without regard for the Constitution or basic rights. Ask whether the president should be able to secretly order the assassination of US citizens. Ask, and you are highly likely to get very different answers than if you ask a Supreme Court justice, a member of Congress, a “liberal” newspaper columnist or the president (who is purportedly a one-time “constitutional law lecturer” at a top US law school).

Analyzing the theft of the 2000 elections, the World Socialist Web Site observed at the time that there remained no significant constituency for the defense of democratic rights within the American ruling class or its political establishment. The WSWS predicted a rapid shift towards authoritarian forms of rule and reiterated these warnings in the period following the September 11, 2001 attacks.

It is now necessary to issue a new warning. More than a decade has passed since the launch of the so-called “war on terror.” The process of disintegration of American democracy has accelerated and advanced sharply, in particular under the Obama administration. Now looming on the horizon is an American police state.
The same principle for the UK as well.

Got to admit, although no Commie myself, I have been consistently impressed with the accuracy of the WSWS in their writings and their warnings of a coming US police state seems to be current direction of the US ruling class.

It does seem that at least when it comes to analyising capitalism, that historical materialism has a lot to say.

Re: The real state of the economy

Posted: 21 May 2013, 23:00
by woodburner
Lord Beria3 wrote:
Watch out! Inflation is eating away at your wealth and gradually making the bulk of the population poorer every year.
Tell us something we don't know.

Re: The real state of the economy

Posted: 22 May 2013, 10:10
by clv101
Lord Beria3 wrote:Watch out! Inflation is eating away at your wealth and gradually making the bulk of the population poorer every year.
Inflation is good news for those with debts... mortgages, and the national debt. Inflation is the only (slim) chance we have of avoiding wholesale default. Those rare individuals who do have wealth threatened by inflation, have a lot more to lose by the collapse associated with broad default.

Re: The real state of the economy

Posted: 22 May 2013, 10:40
by Blue Peter
clv101 wrote:Inflation is good news for those with debts...
Only if their means to pay is also being inflated (the only good inflation is wage inflation). Currently real wages are falling leaving less over to pay the debts,


Peter.

Posted: 22 May 2013, 11:33
by JohnB
Interesting view on current employment practices from the Green Party
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/natalie ... 05605.html

Posted: 22 May 2013, 11:49
by vtsnowedin
What the debt was taken on for is the key. Debt to pay off that vacation to Aruba or Vegas is a burden regardless of future prices and income levels. Debt to purchase a suitable home, land, tools and machinery etc. is worth it and if inflation does happen while you are paying it off you could be well ahead even if your income stream does not keep up with that inflation. Those hard assets will hold their utility value while everything else has it's value faded to vapor at the stroke of someone’s pen.
I would not borrow money to blow on a vacation or to buy gold. I have borrowed money to buy a commuter vehicle to get to and use at work and for a tractor to work my land in the future. At current interest rates zero to 3.5% these seem like prudent investments with minimal risks.

Posted: 22 May 2013, 12:43
by PS_RalphW
I (my wife) is sitting on a ton of cash having sold an inherited property. We want to move to the next village so the kids can walk to school, and to buy a bungalow so that wife's arthritis does not need to negotiate stairs.

Nothing on the market. One went on the Web last Sunday. Booked a viewing for Tueday. House was sold on Monday. Bungalows are being snapped up by developers who convert to maisonettes and double the asking price.

For the sort of house we want, inflation is rampant.

Posted: 22 May 2013, 15:11
by kenneal - lagger
Have you gone into the local estate agents, Ralph, and told them that you are a cash buyer looking for a bungalow? You might have to hint at the fact that you are willing to pay a good price for the right property.

Posted: 22 May 2013, 15:26
by emordnilap
A 'wanted' ad. in the local rag might set a ball rolling somewhere, too. No doubt RW has already thought about that. 8)

Posted: 22 May 2013, 17:20
by PS_RalphW
kenneal - lagger wrote:Have you gone into the local estate agents, Ralph, and told them that you are a cash buyer looking for a bungalow? You might have to hint at the fact that you are willing to pay a good price for the right property.
We are on the lists with the local agents, who gave us advance warning of the property, but we are not the only cash buyers...

Re: The real state of the economy

Posted: 23 May 2013, 00:08
by Ralph
woodburner wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
Watch out! Inflation is eating away at your wealth and gradually making the bulk of the population poorer every year.
Tell us something we don't know.
Seriously. Like the sun rising in the east...there shall be...inflation!

Re: The real state of the economy

Posted: 23 May 2013, 02:16
by kenneal - lagger
Ralph wrote:...............Seriously. Like the sun rising in the east...there shall be...inflation!
It's a function of the payment of interest.

Re: The real state of the economy

Posted: 23 May 2013, 08:04
by extractorfan
kenneal - lagger wrote:
Ralph wrote:...............Seriously. Like the sun rising in the east...there shall be...inflation!
It's a function of the payment of interest.
And population growth? (not an economist)

Posted: 23 May 2013, 14:25
by kenneal - lagger
You can have deflation and population growth, as we have at the moment. Neither am I an economist. But being one of those is no advantage if you believe in perpetual growth in a finite environment!

Posted: 23 May 2013, 14:30
by extractorfan
I just thought if you have more people you have to have more money in circulation, even though it gets distributed unevenly and so inflation.

But really, not that important, limits to growth and all that.