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The dangerous drift towards world war in Asia

Posted: 24 Mar 2013, 16:38
by Lord Beria3
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... -Asia.html
The Japanese original is vague on who "we" is, but the English translation tactfully refers to mankind as a whole.

Families come from all over Japan in a pilgrimage to visit the peace shrine. They look through the Cenotaph to the "A-Dome", the old Industrial Promotion Hall. This six-story building that was directly below the blast, 600 meters above, and for that reason survived as a gaunt half-wrecked structure when almost everything else was flattened instantly for a radius of two kilometres.

They walk through the museum in total silence learning the details of what happened on August 1945, and the gruesome aftermath. The learn about the 2000 degree heat shock that lasted three seconds and incinerated anybody in the epicentre instantly, but left those in the suburbs to die more slowly with burnt skin hanging from their bodies.

They read the day-by-day diaries of the survivors, and the second shock of radiation a week or so later as they came out in a rash of purple spots, and started to vomit their inner organs. Some 140,000 were dead within five months, mostly civilians, including Korean and Chinese forced labourers.

This is what the Japanese are brought up on, so different from the "Patriotic Education" campaign in China for the last twenty years. Beijing's policy has whipped up revanchist hatred against the Japanese for the sins of the 1930s and 1940s, no doubt to divert popular wrath away from a Communist Party tarnished by corruption.

Japan's national ideology is pacifist, and this is written into Article 9 of its constitution, which states that "the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes."

This peace complex adds a strange twist to events. It inhibits Japan as a muscular China presses its claim on the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands -- a cluster of uninhabited rocks near Taiwan -- and as Chinese warships push deep into Japanese waters.
Before this is moved to off-topic, let me remind you that there are significant oil and gas reserves offshore from these islands under dispute between Japan and China.

With PO, these disputes will become more dangerious. If it is the opinion of foreign policy experts that the two superpowers of the East are close to war now, what is it going to be like a decade or two down the line as we enter the long arc of industrialism decline?

As I have said many times before, preparing for a world war MUST be part of your preps.

Sticking your head in the sand is NOT an option!

Posted: 24 Mar 2013, 17:48
by Standuble
Peace has always been a luxury and it seems that it is increasingly becoming a luxury the world is less and less able to afford.

My question is how exactly does one prepare for World War in their preps or how would a global conflict cause a chance in personal contingency planning? If a land invasion of the British Isles were to occur then we would perhaps have to surrender - a small, off-grid transition community which wants nothing to do with the war would be treated as a potential partisan resistance area and would be forced to a close. The alternative - leaving everything and running off to hide in the wood should be part of your preparations IMO either way as peace time would still allow thieves and violent gangs.

What sort of changes did you have in mind?

Posted: 24 Mar 2013, 18:46
by Little John
Standuble wrote:Peace has always been a luxury and it seems that it is increasingly becoming a luxury the world is less and less able to afford.

My question is how exactly does one prepare for World War in their preps or how would a global conflict cause a chance in personal contingency planning? If a land invasion of the British Isles were to occur then we would perhaps have to surrender - a small, off-grid transition community which wants nothing to do with the war would be treated as a potential partisan resistance area and would be forced to a close. The alternative - leaving everything and running off to hide in the wood should be part of your preparations IMO either way as peace time would still allow thieves and violent gangs.

What sort of changes did you have in mind?
There is no way to personally prepare for world war as a civilian other than the kind of preparations people are already doing on here. On the political front, as a civilian, be a part of promoting a collective public policy and culture. In a world of every man for himself, every one but a privileged few loses out.

In terms of preparing for a world war where there is a possibility you may be conscripted, you may see this as a good thing since you may be more likely to get three square meals and a bed as compared to your civilian counterpart. On the other hand, you may be more likely to be killed in combat. If you don't fancy that, bugger one of your feet up or deafen yourself in one of your ears I suppose. Either that or be clever enough that you prove too valuable to be used as cannon fodder.

Posted: 24 Mar 2013, 21:19
by Standuble
stevecook172001 wrote:
Standuble wrote:Peace has always been a luxury and it seems that it is increasingly becoming a luxury the world is less and less able to afford.

My question is how exactly does one prepare for World War in their preps or how would a global conflict cause a chance in personal contingency planning? If a land invasion of the British Isles were to occur then we would perhaps have to surrender - a small, off-grid transition community which wants nothing to do with the war would be treated as a potential partisan resistance area and would be forced to a close. The alternative - leaving everything and running off to hide in the wood should be part of your preparations IMO either way as peace time would still allow thieves and violent gangs.

What sort of changes did you have in mind?
There is no way to personally prepare for world war as a civilian other than the kind of preparations people are already doing on here. On the political front, as a civilian, be a part of promoting a collective public policy and culture. In a world of every man for himself, every one but a privileged few loses out.

In terms of preparing for a world war where there is a possibility you may be conscripted, you may see this as a good thing since you may be more likely to get three square meals and a bed as compared to your civilian counterpart. On the other hand, you may be more likely to be killed in combat. If you don't fancy that, bugger one of your feet up or deafen yourself in one of your ears I suppose. Either that or be clever enough that you prove too valuable to be used as cannon fodder.
Self-mutilation has never been an idea I have been comfortable with so a no to that one. Becoming a soldier is a drag because you're essentially property of the state and three square meals does not mean three tasty meals. Most soldiers after a collapse would probably eat low quality food and live in squalor.

I think if war does break out we should get in boats and sail off into the sunset. If you do get caught by a passing aircraft carrier you would at worst be taken in as a POW which would be the likely fate of many soldiers anyway (without having to maim and kill.)

Posted: 25 Mar 2013, 17:45
by the_lyniezian
How exactly is a war between China and Japan necessarily going to automatically turn into a world war? Are we expecting both the Yanks and the rest of the West to be involved? (I can understand America maybe, but...)

If anything we should hopefully have learned from the last two enough to not get drawn into local/regional conflicts. Or if we do that's where the old nuclear deterrents will hopefully put the brakes on. (Perhaps the latter is actually better- as far as I'm aware Japan wasn't supposed to have more than a self-defence force and has no nuclear capability. If America got involved and it became an out-and-out showdown between two superpowers, I think it might stop worse from happening.)

Posted: 25 Mar 2013, 17:47
by the_lyniezian
Standuble wrote:Peace has always been a luxury and it seems that it is increasingly becoming a luxury the world is less and less able to afford.
Entirely as a result of the mentality which drives it. I would on the other hand the expense of war- both in money and lives- means it is a non-luxury we can even less afford.

Posted: 11 Apr 2013, 08:41
by nexus
From the Guardian:
Korea is the focus, but this is China versus Japan

Beijing has absolute control over North Korea. The crisis is all about disputed islands and the security of oil supplies
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... -japan-oil