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Youth of the ice age
Posted: 07 Jul 2012, 11:23
by Lord Beria3
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/0d158be8 ... z1zvi710jV
Japanese youth, she feels, lacks the sense of urgency she has seen in other countries. They are too comfortable in their affluent, peaceful society. “If you go to China, or Korea or India and you talk to young people, you realise they are in a much more difficult situation. But they are so hungry. Everyone is under constant competition and constant pressure.” If Japanese youth is too complacent, she implies, their more ambitious brethren from other countries will quickly overtake them.
Furuichi says something similar. The “happy generation” may be kidding itself, he says, enjoying its affluence while Japan heads for crisis. That would make youngsters more like passengers on the Ship of Fools than confident navigators of their own destiny. “This is not a sustainable course. Thirty years from now, all these people living with their parents will need to care for those parents. Are they prepared for that, financially or emotionally?”
Japan, he reckons, can probably maintain its present course for several decades, living off the country’s mountainous savings and protected by its relative isolation. “Compared to what’s going on in the outside world, Japan still feels pretty good,” he says, contrasting it with what he perceives as the economic crises and social dislocations raging in Europe and the US. “It’s not obvious to anyone that we’ve gone off the rails. If the old system had completely fallen apart, we might have renewed it,” he says, half regretfully. “It’s an open question as to whether this is a form of warped happiness. But the fact is, if Japanese youth are in dire straits, they’re not aware of it.”
This is a really good article on the social implications of a no-growth society.
I think there is a good case that Japan is living of the massive reserves of wealth it has built up in the post-war decades... and once its debt crisis erupts within the next 3-5 years then the brutal reality of escalating impovishment will smash into the Japonese society.
Re: Youth of the ice age
Posted: 07 Jul 2012, 12:17
by energy-village
Lord Beria3 wrote:. .. and once its debt crisis erupts within the next 3-5 years then the brutal reality of escalating impovishment will smash into the Japonese society.
If it does Japanese society might be much better prepared to withstand it than many other countries, including the UK.
Re: Youth of the ice age
Posted: 07 Jul 2012, 13:51
by Lord Beria3
energy-village wrote:Lord Beria3 wrote:. .. and once its debt crisis erupts within the next 3-5 years then the brutal reality of escalating impovishment will smash into the Japonese society.
If it does Japanese society might be much better prepared to withstand it than many other countries, including the UK.
I wouldn't bet on that.
Japan has a dark side behind that civilised genteel surface. During WW2 the Japonese army committed horrific crimes, in many ways as bad or worse then the Germans.
One day Japon could implode into a nasty civil war or worse turn outwards into a new era of aggressive expansionism.
Posted: 07 Jul 2012, 15:50
by PS_RalphW
The Japanese poeple have huge personal savings. They are held in the form of government bonds. Which the government spent 20 years ago in a failed attempt to build the country out of deflation.
When the government defaults on its bonds, the people are going to be in for a very big shock.
Posted: 07 Jul 2012, 17:05
by Lord Beria3
RalphW wrote:The Japanese poeple have huge personal savings. They are held in the form of government bonds. Which the government spent 20 years ago in a failed attempt to build the country out of deflation.
When the government defaults on its bonds, the people are going to be in for a very big shock.
+1
All bets are of once that happens. I give it five years before either hyperinflation of a government default occurs.
Posted: 09 Jul 2012, 15:36
by Cabrone
From Wikipedia
"About 73 percent of Japan is forested, mountainous, and unsuitable for agricultural, industrial, or residential use.[2][75] As a result, the habitable zones, mainly located in coastal areas, have extremely high population densities. Japan is one of the most densely populated countries in the world."
So Japan has 128 million people living on a mountainous island with few natural resources
.
Best of luck with that Japan.
Posted: 09 Jul 2012, 22:03
by RenewableCandy
They've got more forests than we have. And it is possible to live in them: people have done in the past, in monastries and the like. Just not the same lifestyle as we're used to.
Posted: 09 Jul 2012, 23:13
by leroy
Lived and do still live off the seas do the Japanese. They have great food, but there is just so much seafood on the menu. They also have a lot of very old rice farmers. I considered living out a half year in the Nihon countryside at one point- the rent is very low in rural parts.
FWIW, I fancy their chances more than our own. Strong minded, homogenous people.