The most immediate threats to global energy security

[oilguy]

As global energy supplies come under increasing attack by non-state actors and private energy holdings become key targets of political maneuverings and criminal activities, Oilprice.com discusses the nature of the growing threat and how to reverse the risk with “smart power.”

To help us look at these issues we got together with Corporate intelligence specialists Jellyfish Operations and security expert Jennifer Giroux.

Michael Bagley is the president of Jellyfish, a global boutique intelligence firm that combines on-the-ground intelligence collection and analytics with an unprecedented country-to-country economic diplomacy program

Jennifer Giroux is a global security expert who specializes in emerging threats to energy infrastructure in conflict-affected regions.

In the Interview Michael & Jennifer talk about the following:

• Why the risk to global energy supplies is increasing
• Violent entrepreneurialism: Why piracy is on the rise
• The most immediate threats to global energy security
• Which countries are most likely to see attacks in the future
• Why Saudi Arabia could be the next country to have its energy infrastructure come under attack
• Why energy companies assets are becoming key targets.
• How energy companies can create opportunities in Conflict-Affected Regions
• Why companies need more than just intelligence to operate in hostile environments

Interview conducted by Jen Alic of oilprice.com

Oilprice.com: Energy supplies have always been at risk, particularly due to geopolitical maneuverings, transit through countries in conflict and those suffering from ongoing political instability, as well as piracy on the high seas. You have both mentioned that the risk to global energy supplies is increasing. How do you support that claim?

Jennifer Giroux: There is a plethora of energy location and armed conflict data that shows a correlation between conflict or conflict prone regions and oil and gas producing and/or transit states, both onshore and offshore.

While developing the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD), we have seen a general rise in attacks on energy assets. In the last decade there has been an average of 327 reported attacks on energy infrastructure globally, and this figure is likely higher due to the fact that not all attacks are reported through open sources.

Pooled together, the data reveals that not only are energy companies increasingly operating in risky, volatile environments and conflict zones, but their assets are becoming key targets for political and criminal reasons.

Michael Bagley: More specifically, non-state actors from Mexico to Colombia, to Nigeria, Iraq, Pakistan and beyond are leveraging their terrain in dynamic ways. They are using energy infrastructure targeting as a tool to air political grievances in a calculated manner. For example, to garner illicit funds by stealing oil products and kidnapping energy sector employees, but also to generate global media attention that not only provides a springboard for groups to publicly challenge a state but also to inspire similar targeting behaviors in other regions.

Jennifer Giroux: Another interesting insight from EIAD shows that while energy attacks are dispersed they tend to have a contagion or clustering effect in certain countries. In such cases, we find that energy infrastructure is targeted on a monthly, weekly, and at times daily basis – leading to broad disruptions that have national and international effects. This has been the case in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, where natural gas infrastructure has been targeted on a monthly basis since February 2011 and disrupted energy supplies for Israel and Jordan. Yemen, too, has seen persistent attacks on the Marib-Ras Isa oil pipeline, for instance, that has led to a several-month shutdown that cost the country billions in revenue and shorted global supplies.

Michael Bagley: While those cases represent politically motivated attacks, in Nigeria the oil theft and sabotage business has resulted in Shell declaring force majeure on Nigerian Bonny Light crude oil and shut down 60,000 barrels per day of oil. Offshore, energy carriers are being targeted throughout the Gulf of Guinea, making this the new maritime piracy hotspot. Overall, this is a highly complex issue that makes it increasingly difficult for energy companies to navigate and operate in such spaces.

Oilprice.com: Geographically, what are the most immediate threats to global energy security?

Full Interview at: http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Most ... rview.html

[mobbsey]

In the last decade there has been an average of 327 reported attacks on energy infrastructure globally, and this figure is likely higher due to the fact that not all attacks are reported through open sources.

That's an absurdly low figure. Does it include American attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan? -- not to mention Mossad's indirect attacks on staff supporting the Iranian nuclear programme.

[PS_RalphW]

The used to be a website documenting the insergent attacks on Iraqi oil infrastructure after the US invasion. For several years they were running at about 2 a week, so that would be about 1000 attacks in Iraq alone.