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Collapse could happen, literally, overnight

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 15:54
by Lord Beria3
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2 ... -overnight
First-time author WR Flynn, a retired law enforcement officer living near Portland, Oregon who traveled in Eastern Europe and the USSR, and in 1985, spent a month in Cuba working on a communal farm, has written a didactic novel clearly to make a point. Namely, that our powerful and seemingly solid society is actually frighteningly brittle and vulnerable to the slightest financial shock.

So, despite a nearly complete absence of characterization, a compelling theme or a love story that’s messy enough to identify with (what romance the book offers is thin and unsatisfying), Shut Down works because its relentless focus on plot alone creates enough tension and suspense to keep the pages turning.

First they came for the banks
Yes, you already know from the title that the whole American experiment will be murdered. But that doesn’t stop you from wanting to see the murder weapon, learn the effect on the survivors and most of all, find out who dunnit. Shut Down lets you get up close and see the bloodstains on the pavement. And it also shows how a maddeningly financial system makes global industrial civilization more immediately vulnerable than such threats as climate change, terrorism, or even peak oil and peak everything.

Here’s the simple, yet fiendish, plot that gave me nightmares for a week: On Monday morning the FDIC closes more than 600 insolvent banks nationwide. But under pressure from a deficit-hawkish, Tea Party Congress, the agency forgoes its customary caution and closes more banks at the same time than prudence would suggest. This shocks the financial system enough to shut down both debit cards and Food Stamp cards, sending the US public into panic when they can’t get cash and sending hungry people first into the streets, and then into grocery stores for looting. Electronic panic spreads throughout the world’s interconnected financial system. From there, with payments stopped, oil supplies are disrupted, depriving law enforcement of fuel for patrol cars. That leaves the streets to urban street gangs who start a massive LA Riot in every major city in the US, soon followed by civil unrest around the world.

Focused around the author’s hometown in and around Portland, Flynn seems unimpressed by the world-leading sustainability efforts and peak oil prep that the city has done over the last few years. Instead, just like any other doomed urban area, by Wednesday in Portland, survivors who can have cleared out of the city and are now evacuating the suburbs. Not far behind are the inner-city gangs who have quickly formed themselves into vandal armies to pillage the suburbs and the countryside.
He's spot on on the typical Transition Town type though...

As one reply puts it...
live in the Portland area, and have been a member of Portland Peak Oil, as informal as the group is. I've learned a wealth in onfo regarding organic agriculture form my portland friends, over the years.

However, like the author of this book, I'm also a beans, bullets and band aids prepper. However, Please don't confuse the Transition movement with actual preparedness. They "hate guns," and don't know anything about them, and just assume everyone is going to be helpfull and happy.

Any of us preppers who are familiar with the Transition Town crowd know that they are going to die, period. That bat-eared little clown Rob Hopkins, and his little army of paid activists from the UK (yes, I know the one in the Portland area) aren't doing anyone in this counttry any good, and they should know better, coming from a country of 60 million, shoe-horned into a country the size of Alabama. No wonder that neo-hippie movement is dying here in the Pacific Northwest.

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 16:50
by emordnilap
the Transition Town crowd know that they are going to die, period. That bat-eared little clown Rob Hopkins, and his little army of paid activists from the UK (yes, I know the one in the Portland area) aren't doing anyone in this counttry any good,
And people like these, who think this type of hatred, are determined to fulfil their nasty, backwards, immature, blinkered and toyshop-fascist agenda. If only they would shoot each other and leave ordinary people out of their wank-ins.

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 17:24
by featherstick
And actually, Rob Hopkins is quite tall.

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 17:33
by UndercoverElephant
emordnilap wrote:
the Transition Town crowd know that they are going to die, period. That bat-eared little clown Rob Hopkins, and his little army of paid activists from the UK (yes, I know the one in the Portland area) aren't doing anyone in this counttry any good,
And people like these, who think this type of hatred, are determined to fulfil their nasty, backwards, immature, blinkered and toyshop-fascist agenda. If only they would shoot each other and leave ordinary people out of their wank-ins.
+1

This is just American right-wing garbage. There is a lack of realism among some "transition town people", but the author does not understand the differences between Europe and the US.

Transition towns

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 18:05
by ujoni08
At least the transition initiative is TRYING to do something about the problems, rather than just getting out the ole shotgun...

Re: Transition towns

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 19:38
by emordnilap
ujoni08 wrote:At least the transition initiative is TRYING to do something about the problems, rather than just getting out the ole shotgun...
Precisely.

But LB!!! prefers the ravings of some psychotic Yank, thinking yay, that's my future - for the puerile reason that perfectly practical (and, note, peaceful) plans have acquired some taint of middle-class air. Sheesh.

Re: Collapse could happen, literally, overnight

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 20:10
by clv101
Any of us preppers who are familiar with the Transition Town crowd know that they are going to die, period.
The 'preppers' as they refer to themselves, have one view of the future, not necessarily the right one or even a helpful one. Of course the Transition Town crowd's view may not be the right one, but at least it a positive, collective view rather than a negative divisive view.

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 20:35
by Ludwig
UndercoverElephant wrote:
+1

This is just American right-wing garbage. There is a lack of realism among some "transition town people", but the author does not understand the differences between Europe and the US.
I'd like to agree, but there are more similarities than most people like to believe, especially between the UK and the US. In fact my observation is that Britain is an even more socially atomised country than the US. Most Americans still have standards of decency in behaviour that vanished in Britain decades ago.

So we don't have guns, but that situation wouldn't last long following collapse.

I hope I'm wrong.

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 20:39
by vtsnowedin
clv101 wrote:
Any of us preppers who are familiar with the Transition Town crowd know that they are going to die, period.

The 'preppers' as they refer to themselves, have one view of the future, not necessarily the right one or even a helpful one. Of course the Transition Town crowd's view may not be the right one, but at least it a positive, collective view rather than a negative divisive view.


I have not explored the Transition town movement so I am probably jumping to conclusions. In the utopian world they are seeking to transition too they... expect to be able to provide for all seven plus billion people on the planet in a post peak oil/ economic collapse/ climate changed plus four degrees C world. OR.... they expect a smaller number of people to make the transition.
If the later what do they think will become of the excess people and what role will the transition town members play in deciding who lives and who dies?

There are plenty of examples of a country's collapse leading to riots and the forming of lawless gangs pillaging the countryside. Those that expect that they might have to protect themselves with firearms are probably the best prepared and have the most realistic view of how bad things may become.

Re: Transition towns

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 21:29
by adam2
ujoni08 wrote:At least the transition initiative is TRYING to do something about the problems, rather than just getting out the ole shotgun...
Yes, agree, I would favour trying to do something about the problems, but ALSO keeping a shotgun, just in case.
MOST problems are better resolved without a shoot out, especialy remembering that the other lot may be better armed, more numerous, or simply lucky.
If after TEOTWAWKI, A drugged or drunk lone nutter trys to kill you with a knife or gun, then I think that shooting is more effective than talking.

I am a bit wary of SOME transition town types who "hate guns" and believe that everything can be resolved by being nice.
Being nice is certainly a good start but does not allways work.
And remember that a lawfully held shotgun has many legitimate uses whilst times are normal.

And anyway I dont think it would end overnight, it took nearly a week in "last light"
Last Light is of course fiction, but I feel it could be an accurate forecast of the way things could go.

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 21:58
by Snail
A good blog by someone called Selco who experienced SHTF in the balkans is:
http://shtfschool.com/

And to his original post in a forum I sometimes visit for camping tips:
http://www.survivalistboards.com/showth ... p?t=189395
In this situation I think TT's are pretty useless, except for maybe being able to quickly organise into a group.

However, I don't think a SHTF scenario is the point of TT. They're more about trying to make local communities more resillient and sustainable aren't they? Unfortunately, they don't seem to be happening in enough places at a high enough level. So I've never really seen the point in them. It's not as if the idea is catching on.

Posted: 13 Nov 2011, 22:32
by jonny2mad
Ive training in non violent ways of conflict resolution gone on weekend courses have qualifications etc , I've also worked for the top green events stewarding company for more than 11 years, worked on gates at eco events as well as at least a 100 other events, and yes in lots of cases you can talk people out of doing things, you can show empathy, some times bursting into tears helps , but in lots of cases that sort of thing doesn't work .

I think a fast crash at some point is pretty inevitable, and you have lots of unprepared people you also have a lot of people who most people may not notice everyday who are violent thugs,Ive come in contact with quite a few of these unreasonable violent thugs especially in urban areas they are quite common .

I think the American is right the transition people will mostly die, if they were highly armed Amish there might be some hope for them and community's that formed around them but sadly being near pacifists in a fast crash their doomed.


Anyway what I think you need is a large group and I mean a significant size national group, that are non pacifist and off grid and grow a lot of food .

If only a small number of people do this it wouldn't really effect things, because you need to have numbers to survive and change the meme that says the only way to survive is to be the wandering brigand.

I don't think this will happen in the UK , we are too urban theres too many of us and we have too great a sense of entitlement and when things get tough too little character .

we ain't the people we were in the 1940s theres also twice as many of us. years ago I used to have online arguments on LATOC with a survivalist yank who thought we were about the most doomed place on earth, gradually I've come to see he's most likely right

Posted: 14 Nov 2011, 10:21
by clv101
Snail wrote:However, I don't think a SHTF scenario is the point of TT. They're more about trying to make local communities more resillient and sustainable aren't they?
Good point. It's pointless for 'preppers' to criticise TT. The two groups are simply doing different things.

Posted: 14 Nov 2011, 11:23
by Nicko
I can see how people get off on the idea of society break down and get a rush from thinking about gangs of nutters looting and killing. A bit like a real life horror film.
But do you really think it is going to happen on this scale so quickly?
Or are you so fed up of modern society that you really want it to happen quickly so we can get on with building something new?

How can you enjoy life now while constantly buzzing off what might happen in the future?

Nicko

Posted: 14 Nov 2011, 11:35
by Ludwig
Nicko wrote:I can see how people get off on the idea of society break down and get a rush from thinking about gangs of nutters looting and killing. A bit like a real life horror film.
But do you really think it is going to happen on this scale so quickly?
Or are you so fed up of modern society that you really want it to happen quickly so we can get on with building something new?
Why always this assumption that believing the worst is the same as wanting the worst?

The world isn't plastic to our desires: we have to take it as we find it. Few people realise this. Wanting everything to be rosy won't make it so.
How can you enjoy life now while constantly buzzing off what might happen in the future?
Personally, I don't enjoy life. That's the price you pay for realism. The upside is that you're less liable to be taken unawares by events, which psychologically can be a very bad thing.