PowerSwitch

I'm in a rotten mood and things are a bit c**p at the moment, so I'm starting a Doom and Gloom thread. If you want to be cheered up, look elsewhere.

As I see it, this Winter is likely to contain at least some, if not all of the following:

- very cold weather, probably prolonged
- civil unrest (riots?)
- civil unrest (strikes)
- son of 'credit crunch' - the Euro strikes back
- Katla in Iceland kicking off and knocking out ten times the ash Eyafollakul or however it's spelled did a year ago.

So, reduce debts, get a woodburner, store some water and means of purifying it, get some stores in, increase social capital, etc etc. Yes, yes, we've done all that.

What I want are your speculations, your wild unfounded theories of how the whole sorry jenga-tower's coming down this Winter and which bits hit first? Really, it'll cheer me up. I watch disaster films when I'm really miserable too.

If you enjoy doom and gloom, enjoy the appeal of winter and making snowmen and you are of a particularly apathetic disposition then maybe I would suggest a nuclear war? You get a hot fire, a lot of life long memories and a nice, year round winter! Just avoid the worldwide radiation and infrastructure collapse and you'll be fine.

But to go back on topic I think late 2011 will be a bit of a disappointment. For an eventful year in Europe, America, the Middle East and Japan I think we will have riots and protests about heating costs and austerity but nothing overly too bad. Many will just suffer in silence, facing poverty with a British stiff upper lip.

Well, this might happen:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... risis.html

There's always the hope of a super bird flu to cheer you up. It often happens that a strain develops a nasty side up a couple of years after it first appears so maybe this year you'll get lucky.

Apophis will end it all

No, she's looking for something more certain.

99942 Apophis ( /əˈpɒfɪs/, previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However, a possibility remained that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole, a precise region in space no more than about a half-mile wide,[6] that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis will pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small. Apophis broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.[7] Its diameter is approximately 270 meters (885 ft).[2] As of October 7, 2009, the probability of an April 13, 2036 impact is considered to be 1 in 250,000.

Wikipedia

tattercoats wrote: - very cold weather, probably prolonged
- civil unrest (riots?)
- civil unrest (strikes)
- son of 'credit crunch' - the Euro strikes back
- Katla in Iceland kicking off and knocking out ten times the ash Eyafollakul or however it's spelled did a year ago.

.

Cold weather appears likely, but last year was cold, so to a certain extent people are used to it, and may even have prepared.

Riots, possibly, but I suspect that any large scale rioting will be dealt with more firmly than the last lot.

Strikes are a virtual certainity, but largely confined to the public sector.
As more and more services are transfered to the private sector, public sector strikes become less effective.

Son of credit crunch, very likely, Greek default and more bank failures, followed by other sovereign defaults.

Icelandic volcanoes, fairly low down the list of likely disasters IMHO. It probably wont happen, if it does happen the wind might blow it away from us, and it would probably only affect air transport, of which there is too much already.

A few other possibles to add to the list

A flare up in the ME leading to oil and/or natural gas shortages.

An electricity shortage, caused by France exporting to Germany instead of to us. Germany will need it due to the shutdown of many nuclear plants.

A significant terrorist attack, or numerous small attacks on the UK.
Imagine the panic if terrorists tamper with food or water supplies for example, even if the actual loss of life is limited.

A really bad pandemic of flu or other disease.

A prolonged very cold winter could be a possibility. Last winter could be a foretaste of what will become normal. Which can only be a good thing in my opinion. I did read somewhere a long while ago that global warming could see the UK getting winters that are the same as Canada... so buy a sled.

postie wrote:buy a sled.

Buy? Secure your position in your local community by becoming the sled maker .

Cold in the winter? Can't imagine it. Buy a snow shovel and a good coat ,hat and boots.
Civil unrest and war? Happens all the time. In fact their are very few days when a few wars are not being fought somewhere on the globe. Not much fun when it comes to your neighborhood. At least your rioting neighbors don't have guns to shoot you with and have to rely on Molotov cocktails to set your house on fire.
The banking system going toes up is a very good possibility as everything they have done has just pushed off the day of reckoning. The other shoe could drop anytime and probably will.
Or you could have the Mideast blow up and have Brent go to $160 and stay there.
Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are too random and rare to get worked up about. People behaving badly is much more certain.

http://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en&edi ... 48&bih=736

Good movie coming up on a pandemic, some trailers in the link above.

The pandemic threat is a very good reason to ensure you are stocked up on food. Ironically, it is not so much the pandemic that would kill you but the collapse of JIT petrol and food supplies, something that is never mentioned much in mainstream media accounts when these alerts pop up.

Can't help but think that some kind of D Notice happens because nobody wants to scare the sheeple!

This thread really should be in the Positive Room.

Let's not forget solar storms:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... ecade.html

"A MAJOR solar storm would not only damage Earth's infrastructure, it could also leave a legacy of radiation that keeps killing satellites for years.

When the sun belches a massive cloud of charged particles at Earth, it can damage our power grids and fry satellites' electronics. But that's not all. New calculations suggest that a solar megastorm could create a persistent radiation problem in low-Earth orbit, disabling satellites for up to a decade after the storm first hit.

It would do this by destroying a natural buffer against radiation - a cloud of charged particles, or plasma, that normally surrounds Earth out to a distance of four times the planet's radius."

Cool eh?

Hmm...where to begin

Severe bout of bad weather in the run up to Christmas sends many internet shopping, resultant collapse of high street spending, accelerated failure of retail businesses many of whom have survived so far only by severe cost cutting and staff reduction.

Government see peak tax revenue and respond by raising VAT to 'Euro norm' 22%.

Gas and electric prices soar due to reduced supply caused by much higher prices and extra demand from Germany.

Greece effectively defaults and Italian debt collapses their economy, France unable and Germany unwilling to help.

Public sector strikes expand into private sector unrest, resulting falling productivity cause cascade of manufacturing failures.

Satellite impact from orbital debris starts happening regularily. Commercial launches priced out of the market.

Coalition government collapses when 'spoof' anti terror operations that result in no convictions are exposed.

According to a tabloid "news"paper, we are due for unusually cold weather fairly soon, with snow next month.
Anyone know if this is based on anything, other than a slow news day ?

Near term weather forecasting is increasingly accurate, but I have little faith in longer term forecasts.