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Hi,

I would be very grateful if you could point me towards any good articles or web sites to help me persuade my parents of the seriousness of peak oil. I am planning to put together a bit of a presentation for them as I know they are skepticle and of the belief that new tech will be found and everything will work out, if not, then that nothing will happen in their lifetime anyway (they are in their mid sixties).

They are both educated people and devoted Guardian readers, they seem to be aware of everything that is going on but really don't seem to want to face the bigger picture. I want to try and show them the seriousness of the situation and persuade them that things are going to start being very different very soon, so now is the time to be trying to make a change before it is too late.

I should say that I am hoping to persuade them that they should move with me and my family to a large house with land, this will take some persuation!!!

Any tips or links for persuading them would be gratefully received.

Thanks,
Julia

It's probably a waste of time trying to persuade them. If you've tried and they've ignored it, they'll go on ignoring it until it hits them in the face.

I have the same issue with my parents. Whenever I bring up Peak Oil, they say, "Oh, not Peak Oil again" or, "No one can predict the future" or in their more honest moments, "Let's not go there."

I come from a family of worriers, and I realise that I risk undermining my parents' mental well-being by mentioning Peak Oil. In the case of my father, I see the fear in his eyes when I bring it up - he just can't cope with the idea.

Like yours, my parents are educated Guardian readers. They are interested in politics and current affairs, but the rule they apply to me seems to be that I can join in their discussions about the world, as long as I don't say what I really think.

I want to tell them they should at the very least be stocking up on tinned food. I've even thought of arranging a delivery of goods from Tesco on their behalf; but as ever, I'm worried about the effect it will have on their mental health. Of course they'll regret their denial when the time comes; I've told them they should invest at least some of their savings in gold, but I think that any action they take to mitigate the effects of PO on them will bring it to the fore of their minds and increase their anxiety.

I have been through the initial anxiety over PO. It was very painful indeed, and I would understand why other people wouldn't want to experience it.

Another factor, I think, is that as people get older their energy levels decrease, and they find it more difficult to summon up the will to take action against adversity. So they prefer to avoid thinking about it.

And yet another factor, I think, for older people, is that they've probably experienced a number of false alarms about the end of the world, most notably during the Cold War. History has "cried wolf" on them enough times that they've stopped believing that anything can be as bad as it seems.

The logic is inescapable.

Oil is a finite resource. Unlike rocks and metals, oil is destroyed when used and so can't be reworked. It is therefore also a depleting resource.

The global demand for oil has gone up and up, with some blips for economic recessions, over the past 150 odd years.

When demand exceeds, or it is thought that it will exceed, supply, then the price goes up. That has historically caused inflation shortly followed by recession. However, the momentum has been for increasing demand (more people on Earth; more energy-intensive lifestyles; China, India, etc industrialising).

No one (except the abiotic oil loonies) doubts that supply of this depleting finite resource will fail to keep up with demand at some time. The only questions are when and what will happen at that time.

Personally, I foresee a series of 2007/8-type busts (oil-price-driven economic meltdowns), each one building on and worse than the one before. There may be ten or more of these or there may just be the two (the last one and the next one) before the global industrial economic system is recognised as having failed. Expect anything then, none of it likely to be good unless you have prepared and made yourself and your community resilient by removing dependence upon oil in all its forms (fuel and goods).

There might, at that time, still be plenty of oil in the ground, and economically accessible, but if civilisation is in retreat we might not be organised enough to be able to exploit much of it in the global way we do at present. And, anyway, if you live close to a source of oil, don't think you could keep it for local use - expect a keen interest in it by the military of one or more countries.

You can do it, but you just have to be prepared to be very very very very persistent.

All the usual arguments that convinced you will do as openers -- don't worry whether they listen or not. What you are waiting to hear are the counter-arguments. Then go find the information that demolishes those. And be prepared to repeat it all 10 times. Since you want them to live with you, you'll have to spread this out over some time, otherwise even if they agree with you they will be sick of the sound of you.

At a certain point in the conversation all the obvious objections are dealt with and there will be a lull; then have your plan ready and lay it out.

[quote="Ludwig"]

My best advice is to work out what exactly you want them to do?

So, lets say you want your parents to prepare for shortages by stocking up on a months worth of water and tinned food?

If they don't beleive in PO, recommend to them the risk of a pandemic and the collapse of the food system for a while. Show them the government advice in these things...

if you want to get them to put a bit of money into gold, don't refer to PO, instead talk about printing money and the need to protect against inflation.

If you want them to become self-sufficient, emphasis the positive things about growing your own food, don't bother with PO, instead use other arguments.

RGR wrote:What about the peak oil scare of 1919?

Tell us the details about that one.

RGR wrote:The great running out of 1943?

And that one.

You are very fond of alluding to these peak oils throughout history. Let's have the details.

RGR wrote:Gorelicks work in particular is extremely well referenced and gives all sides an even shake.

Is it true he ignores EROEI?

Prokopton wrote:Is it true he ignores EROEI?

Probably no more than others:

[quote="foodimista"]

[quote="Prokopton"][

RGR wrote:I don't recall him mentioning it, but I can certainly check.

... well if you wouldn't mind, yes I'd appreciate it. Thanks

Meanwhile, back on topic....

Julia I've been in a similar situation with SWMBO. Now she has lived through a genuine societal collapse, and didn't really want to think about things at all. I found that it really wasn't helpful to look at the big picture and talk globally to her. It really didn't work. A far more productive approach was to talk about smaller, local examples. For instance when talking about getting supplies in, I'd talk about the Luton power cuts and perhaps we should have a few more candles around the place. At the same time, I gradually got on with building some stores. Now she's fully turned on to the whole situation, and we're making joint plans and considering our options for the future, but it's taken a few years to get there.

My feeling is that your parents may well further alienated by a "presentation" with "evidence" and "references" that looks at the big picture and then finishes with a call to action. Softly-softly in this case I would think.

It depends what your parents are like and how they are likely to react to different approaches, and we can't know that. For instance, whether it is best to tackle one first or both together.

So the surest way to go about it is to try to see the situation through their eyes: casually ask them - how do they perceive the world? what are their concerns? how do they see the world being in 10, 30, 50 years time? Angle their answers towards energy consumption. You're sure to find a chink in their logic that way. They might know the truth anyway but not be prepared to commit it to words until their stated BAU view of the world is shown by and to themselves to be untenable.