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Crude oil prices have been moving toward the $100 per barrel mark. The actual price for crude and petroleum products is much higher in some nations due to subsidies (direct and hidden), keeping prices artificially low. But the official price of oil seems on the way to break the $147 / bbl record from July 2008. Whether the emerging economic powerhouses China and India are the main reason for higher oil prices is academic, when the whole world is affected by developments in price and supply anywhere.

The stability of countries such as Egypt and other Arab states has been proven illusory. When the right geopolitical event in the Persian Gulf -- perhaps connected to the Tunisian, Egyptian and Yemeni trends now in play -- interrupts oil supplies by as much as 10% or more of global demand, the effect on the oil market may well be as if Hubbert's peak oil bell curve became a cliff that we have already jumped off.

A revolution in Saudi Arabia has been my favorite example for years, in terms of illustrating what can spark a return to the 1970s' skyrocketing oil prices, panic buying and hoarding. As grocery shelves will be emptied in a few days when a major oil supply crunch hits, as the late Matt Simmons reminded us, what difference does it make how many billions of barrels of crude are really off Brazil's coast?

The number of separate but linked oil facilities, extent of damage, or days of closure do not have to conform to some arithmetic model for there to be a massive reaction in the world oil market. The perception of supply shortage, with real instances affecting deliveries, is what drives oil prices on the world market, much as the stock market sometimes has a herd mentality. So far we are talking about what most observers would consider a temporary oil supply disruption resulting in a price spike. However, if the disruption and spike are strong enough, severe effects can shut down much of the global economy and simultaneously stop much local activity. Petrocollapse -- the exacerbated and lasting failure of the world oil market to meet demand, and the paralysis and collapse of most of the economy's infrastructure relying on petroleum -- does not need to follow a formula or specific pattern of oil industry breakdown or a certain depletion schedule of oil reserves. We will only be sure when petrocollapse hits. Because peak oil has been attained, we can say that the petrocollapse process has begun and just needs a catalyst to tip the whole economy and trigger famine on a scale as large as some future climate disaster.

Agree with the general analysis... the potential for unrest among the Shias in the oil part of SA is big. I still wager that that the Saudis will keep things under control.

Regarding Transition...

I don't believe the "Transition Town" or less-known "Stair-case slow collapse/catabolic" viewpoints take into account adequately the extreme vulnerability of and to the oil market. The Transition Town and Stair-case adherents' views, hopes, dreams and assumptions may actually refer to social change from civilization collapse, when they may think they are referring to the post-peak oil downslope, or vice versa. But this may make no difference as events may accelerate, and collapse and die-off throw theory and wishes out the window.

Exactly... TT is akin to pissing in the wind in the event of petrocollapse.

Petrocollapse will not be limited to the U.S., as we shall see when dominoes fall. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

The popular faith in renewable and other alternative fuels to "save us" from dwindling oil reserves or from a loss of Middle Eastern or OPEC oil ought to be shattered prior to the rude and crude awakening from a significant supply crunch. The alternatives are not ready on a large scale, and generally only provide electricity rather than liquid fuels or petrochemicals or other materials. We will only wake up en masse when chaos starts to rapidly unfold -- as if it hasn't already.

Amen to that.

Lord Beria3 wrote:TT is akin to pissing in the wind in the event of petrocollapse.

That rather depends on which way the wind is blowing!

Indeed, its far more likely the transition towns will be sacked by the rioting poor shouting "Tory Scum"

Lord Beria3 wrote:

I don't believe the "Transition Town" or less-known "Stair-case slow collapse/catabolic" viewpoints take into account adequately the extreme vulnerability of and to the oil market. The Transition Town and Stair-case adherents' views, hopes, dreams and assumptions may actually refer to social change from civilization collapse, when they may think they are referring to the post-peak oil downslope, or vice versa. But this may make no difference as events may accelerate, and collapse and die-off throw theory and wishes out the window.

Exactly... TT is akin to pissing in the wind in the event of petrocollapse.

Urm, that's not what it says. It says this may make no difference as events may accelerate.

Then again, events may not. No one knows the future, but surely the TT initiative existing is better than it not existing. It may only improve our chances of 'successful' future from 2% to 5%, but that's no reason to dismiss it.

It is (IMO) absolutely inevitable that we will face "sudden petrocollapse" sooner or later on the production downslope. By definition, at that point in the proceedings there is no meaningful production slack, so it will only take one regional political crisis or major natural disaster to cause serious shortages.

So I guess the question is whether it will be sooner or later.

How much of a collapse we have in UK will depend on whether or not the EU succeeds in "nationalising" North Sea oil to share among the rest of the EU with an export ban to anywhere else. If this happened there would be a strong case for nationalising all EU power generation and rationing it. Whether France would be happy about that is a different question.

The North Sea is already a nationalised asset of the EU as far as fishing is concerned, so I could see the French and a few others transferring that principle to its assets in general. French nukes would be an entirely different matter, of course, for the French. I wonder if the last defence review took into account defending our oil assets from our EU "partners"?

Transition Towns may be overwhelmed by events, as everyone else will be, but a town with an existing Transition Movement is likely to be better prepared and have a quicker recovery than one without. Having a body of people who are expecting collapse and are prepared for it, even if it is to a limited extent, will mean that those people won't go into shock, as most will, and will be in a position to lead the others out according to a preprepared plan. That has got to be better than having no plan at all.

It is well documented that in the event of a disaster, say a plane crash, most of the people involved will go into shock and many will not even attempt to move from their seats. They will do nothing to help themselves. This reaction is why I am a bit dubious about the stories of marauding hordes ranging the land after a disaster. It is more likely that most people will stay at home and wait for relief, After all "the government will always provide", according to socialist principles anyway. By the time they have realised that the government cannot provide it will be too late and they will be too weak to go marauding very far.

All local authorities have a disaster planning and reaction capability but I doubt that many will have a plan for this level of disaster. Perhaps we should be encouraging our own local authorities to plan for this. My own daughter and son in law studied Disaster Management at Coventry Uni, and my daughter has worked on local disaster events but trying to get them to do a plan for us for something like this has been impossible. Trying to get the LA to do something would be even more difficult but it should be tried.

kenneal wrote: It is well documented that in the event of a disaster, say a plane crash, most of the people involved will go into shock and many will not even attempt to move from their seats. They will do nothing to help themselves. This reaction is why I am a bit dubious about the stories of marauding hordes ranging the land after a disaster. It is more likely that most people will stay at home and wait for relief, After all "the government will always provide", according to socialist principles anyway. By the time they have realised that the government cannot provide it will be too late and they will be too weak to go marauding very far.

One can always hope. But I'm not sure economic shock is quite analagous to being in a plane crash. The latter is a sudden event, where people don't have time to reorient themselves. Economic shock is protracted; and I think the crucial thing is that most people won't recognise it for what it is: they will see it as a failure of Government, and something that someone, somewhere, will be able to pull us out of - probably the Far Right, since they are always ready with "solutions". Indeed the Far Right may well be the only people with any appetite for power in a post-PO world.

What I'm saying is that anger and violence may erupt before we get to the stage of people being paralysed by shock. And violence has a way of being self-perpetuating: if you can't trust the guy next to you not to attack you, you'll probably have half a mind to attack him first.

I'm hoping it doesn't come to this of course, but we shouldn't be complacent about the potential for widespread violence.

kenneal wrote:How much of a collapse we have in UK will depend on whether or not the EU succeeds in "nationalising" North Sea oil to share among the rest of the EU with an export ban to anywhere else. If this happened there would be a strong case for nationalising all EU power generation and rationing it. Whether France would be happy about that is a different question.

The North Sea is already a nationalised asset of the EU as far as fishing is concerned, so I could see the French and a few others transferring that principle to its assets in general. French nukes would be an entirely different matter, of course, for the French. I wonder if the last defence review took into account defending our oil assets from our EU "partners"?

I wonder how much longer the EU is going to last. There are so many irreconcilable differences in outlook and needs. In any situation of unequal partnerships, at some point the partners giving more and getting less back (like Germany) will simply call an end to the whole thing. Germany also has rather different energy needs to the UK and France, being dependent on natural gas from Russia.

Agreed Ludwig... I don't think the EU will last more than 20 years at most.

Far more likely is that nationalistic forces across Europe rise to power and lead to the breakup of the EU and the Euro project.

However, I don't think this is a threat in the short term, more in the next 10 - 20 years.

Regarding TT - it IS useful in the event of a slow crash/transition - but in the event of a sudden collapse, than only the most successful TT would have any chance of making a impact.

It is a useful thing, but not in the sudden collapse of civilisation situation.

It is more likely that most people will stay at home and wait for relief, After all "the government will always provide", according to socialist principles anyway.

Student Riots?
Even at the worst, I dont believe ASDA's going to close and the HoC will lock itself in its nuclear bunker for 50 years.

Civil power and food/power will break down slowly, even if slowly is over a month
Thats plenty of time for a few thugs to find out that a nieghbouring town is hoarding electricity and go and take their fair share.

kenneal wrote: It is well documented that in the event of a disaster, say a plane crash, most of the people involved will go into shock and many will not even attempt to move from their seats. They will do nothing to help themselves. This reaction is why I am a bit dubious about the stories of marauding hordes ranging the land after a disaster. It is more likely that most people will stay at home and wait for relief, After all "the government will always provide", according to socialist principles anyway. By the time they have realised that the government cannot provide it will be too late and they will be too weak to go marauding very far.

Yep that's exactly what I see happening.

"They" will help, "They" will sort it out, "They" will get the power back on soon enough, "They" won't let us come to any harm. This is Britain.

The stuff about EU 'nationalising' energy assets is interesting.

We have only seen demo's and riots so far in the Middle East, but it could easily spiral out of control.

I sense the people have had enough and when a critical mass of the population decide that, it doesn't matter how severe the initial crackdown by the police and army, usually people power will succeed.

So, in the context of Saudi Arabia and the potential for major unrest, I think we need to watch out very closely for any potential breakdown in oil supplies and be prepared to stock up quickly for water and food before the petrol/supermarket shortages occur... which could be within weeks.

Remember, Lehman Brothers went down... you had nearly 4 weeks to prepare for a UK style banking collapse (and thus the collapse of society if it had happened) - and we came within HOURS of a UK banking collapse with all the social chaos that would have resulted.

Next time we may not be so lucky.

I will keep this thread updated... any oil refinery in the SA which is destroyed could be the trigger for a major drop in global energy flows, giving us just weeks to prepare for the worst case situations - social collapse and famine in the West.

If anybody thinks I am scare-mongering, sadly I am not... our food and energy supplies are all JIT - it only takes a couple of weeks and have nothing left, the supply networks collapse and the country is on the brink of the abyss.

For once, I am forced to agree with you Lord Barking.

The situation in the ME seems to be deteriorating by the day.

BBC News - 20/02/11

Libyan troops have opened fire with machine-guns and large-calibre weapons on anti-government protesters in the second city Benghazi, witnesses say.

Article continues ...

It is with great sadness that I agree with Lord Beria.

Things are going very tits up in the middle east. It will take a minor miracle for this all not to impact oil supplies. Which, at the end of the day means serious disruption for us over here in these green hills.



and of course worse....

I am not yet convinced that what is happening will have a significiant impact on us. There is a lot of sabre rattling by Joe Public and no doubt they are annoyed and reaching a point of causing change to happen in their own local regions, but I am not sure this is going to spread to the extent of raw materials such as oil stopping its normal flows.

For once I don't really see this as TSHTF, but maybe I am simply under-estimating what is going on?