I just thought I would spell it out again for those people who must have missed it:
Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006, while production of natural gas liquids (NGL) and unconventional oil grows quickly. IEA WEO 2010 - Executive Summary
In this statement the “intergovernmental organisation which acts as energy policy advisor to 28 member countries” have finally acknowledged that it believes global conventional oil production peaked 4 years ago. I can’t understand why there was so little comment about this on the forum. Isn’t this what everyone has been waiting to hear?
(Edited for typos!)
Last edited by Adam Polczyk on 26 Nov 2010, 16:37, edited 1 time in total.
"The uncertainty of our times is no reason to be certain about hopelessness" - Vandana Shiva
Adam Polczyk wrote:I can’t understand why there is was so little comment about this on the forum.
It's been acknowledged and discussed on a couple of threads.
Adam Polczyk wrote:Isn’t this what everyone has been waiting to hear?
I've said before now, the point at which half the world's fossil fuels are exhausted is not particularly important. What is more important is how we're going to deal with the energy supply contraction and many PSers are working on that at a personal and local level.
So for many here, it's not news - and efforts to bring others on board are currently, often, somewhat tiresome.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
For two weeks now the peak oil portion of cyberspace has been abuzz with commentary on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) newly released World Energy Outlook 2010. Without missing a beat and without much explanation, the world’s leading compiler of everything about energy has gone from denying that conventional oil production will peak in our lifetime to saying it happened four years ago. Will wonders never cease! The Agency, of course, did not predict an immediate cataclysm, as it managed to conjure up enough undiscovered, undeveloped, lousy quality, and very-expensive-to produce oil to keep the world sort of growing for another 25 years. Needless to say the conjuring was met with much derision from those who believe they can discern the possible from the impossible.
With respect, I think you (LB3 and emordnilap) are rather missing the point. Isn't the significant thing that IEA have acknowledged a historic peak in conventional oil? Yes, this has been mentioned in other threads, but hardly discussed to the level that one might expect on a peak oil forum.
"The uncertainty of our times is no reason to be certain about hopelessness" - Vandana Shiva
Adam Polczyk wrote:Isn't the significant thing that IEA have acknowledged a historic peak in conventional oil?
It may be that, to those in power in the know, the obvious is being stated. To make a song-and-dance about it might induce panic. Better to let it simmer?
It's a bit like another thread linking to a post about Irish bondholders. These bondholders are not being talked about because those in the know already know about them. It was compared to a headline such as, "Slaveholder abuses slave". It's not news.
Adam Polczyk wrote:Yes, this has been mentioned in other threads, but hardly discussed to the level that one might expect on a peak oil forum.
With respect, it's not specifically a peak oil forum.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Adam Polczyk wrote:With respect, I think you (LB3 and emordnilap) are rather missing the point. Isn't the significant thing that IEA have acknowledged a historic peak in conventional oil? Yes, this has been mentioned in other threads, but hardly discussed to the level that one might expect on a peak oil forum.
I do agree that it is a step forward that the IEA have noted PO but maybe folks here (apart from RGR ) kind of accepted it years ago... doesn't seem worthy of note.
The real debate is the transition away from conventional crude... thats where the fireworks goes on... hard crash versus slow crash, adaptation or collapse... there is alot of interesting debates. Recommend my thread on newbies, read through those reports and see what you think.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
I think we've always discussed that we won't know when PO happens until some time after the event. Maybe we're still waiting to be sure this is the real peak. How many times does RGR reckon it's happened so far?
Surely the important peak is when total conventional and non conventional oil peaks, and we're on the final down slope. Has that happened yet?
emordnilap wrote:With respect, it's not specifically a peak oil forum.
Well, it says "The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community" at the top of every page.
Yeah, I know, though I've never really accepted that; I go more by the name and the actuality, which this thread proves. There are other, more dedicated oil discussion fora.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Given that our government defer to the IEA for advice on energy policy, doesn’t this acknowledgement (if it were more widely discussed) make it harder for them to continue to be dismissive about peak oil? Especially when taken together with recent comments from the EU’s Commissioner for Energy?
Has anyone seen either of these reported in any of the mainstream media?
"The uncertainty of our times is no reason to be certain about hopelessness" - Vandana Shiva
