Ireland

[Cabrone]

I know our Irish friends are having a rough time but I've only just found out how bad things are over there.

According to the IMF, the republic of Ireland currently owes $2,131,267 million.
http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddprep ... _TYPE=VIEW

and according to Wikipedia, the republic's population is just under 4.5 million.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland

also according to Wikipedia Irish GDP is $227.781 billion (that figure is 'nominal' - whatever that means).

Therefore if my maths is correct:

1) Every man, woman and child in Ireland owes approx $470k.
2) If Ireland poured its entire GDP into paying off its debt it would still take a decade to pay off just the capital let alone the interest.



I thought the UK was in the toilet but Ireland makes our debt look like loose change. Infact they could well be the most indebted country on the planet.

Truly shocking stuff.

Two questions pop up in my head
1) How did a country of 4.5 million rack up such a collosal debt?
2) How the heck are the Irish going to get out of this one?

The only bright spot I can see for the Irish is at least there is plenty of land to go round.

The UK with its swollen population doesn't even have that comfort.

[UndercoverElephant]

1) How did a country of 4.5 million rack up such a collosal debt?

The same way Iceland did - by having an oversized banking sector that made the wrong calls. This was on top of being overly-dependent on EU handouts over recent years.

2) How the heck are the Irish going to get out of this one?

I think it is more a question of how the heck the european single currency gets out of it. That is the real problem...they cannot inflate their own currency because they don't have one. Therefore either they default big-time or the eurozone falls apart.

[Kentucky Fried Panda]

They're going to be all right, soon as food prices rocket, they can export what little surplus they will have and pay of their debts as the rest of the world starves.

[RenewableCandy]

Is Ireland self-sufficient in food? Or are they going to export regardless (as in the 1840s)?

[bigjim]

The only bright spot I can see for the Irish is at least there is plenty of land to go round.

The UK with its swollen population doesn't even have that comfort.

Don't forget that some of the UK population lives within easy touching distance of the land a-plenty of Ireland- and indeed there's plenty of land going in the north of Scotland and the islands.

ETA: It looks like we in the UK still owe $147000 approx. per head- that is still a scary figure!

[Cabrone]

The only bright spot I can see for the Irish is at least there is plenty of land to go round.

The UK with its swollen population doesn't even have that comfort.

Don't forget that some of the UK population lives within easy touching distance of the land a-plenty of Ireland- and indeed there's plenty of land going in the north of Scotland and the islands.

I'd imagine the republic is now full of bargains if you are looking for a small holding.

Isn't the SE corner the best part for growing your own food?

Fairly mild climate, decent soil and no shortage of rain?

[biffvernon]

ETA: It looks like we in the UK still owe $147000 approx. per head- that is still a scary figure!

Scary for the folks who lent the money since the people who borrowed it are not going to give it back.

[Catweazle]

Scary for the folks who lent the money since the people who borrowed it are not going to give it back.

I'll bet they / we do. It'll be taken from pensions, income tax, hospitals, education, defence, , welfare, police, etc. etc.

[biffvernon]

But maybe that money doesn't actually exist, at least not in the sense that it is backed by any tangible asset. You can't pay back what you haven't got and for sure you can't spend what isn't there on pensions, hospitals, education, defence, , welfare, police, etc. etc.

[Potemkin Villager]

And this is what we got:-



http://transitiontownsireland.ning.com/video/for-sale



And this is a critique of our government's so called energy strategy



http://transitiontownsireland.ning.com/ ... t-national

[emordnilap]

Good music Roger! The sight of all those plastic palaces; it's not quite as bleak over here in the west (less development to start with) but nonetheless there are far too many 'ghost estates' and empty shopping centres covering this once emerald isle.

Is Ireland self-sufficient in food?

No. Far from it. And as for energy....

Or are they going to export regardless (as in the 1840s)?

Probably. How else are we to pay for oil, the most common heating fuel?

I'd imagine the republic is now full of bargains if you are looking for a small holding.

Yes and no. Prices are still optimistically high, fuelled by the constant 'turning the corner' headlines and such growthmongering.

However, with fast ready cash and a couldn't-care-less attitude, you could easily pick up prime land/buildings.

Isn't the SE corner the best part for growing your own food?

That's where most of the the spuds and strawberries come from, yes. Relatively crowded though.

Fairly mild climate, decent soil and no shortage of rain?

That's us.

Scary for the folks who lent the money since the people who borrowed it are not going to give it back.

I'll bet they / we do. It'll be taken from pensions, income tax, hospitals, education, defence, , welfare, police, etc. etc.

You're both right. The people who borrowed it are not going to give it back. It'll be taken back from the people who didn't borrow it.

[RenewableCandy]

Nice vid Roger. The sign advertising "Energy Efficient Homes" (for sale) is an amusing twizt!

[Lord Beria3]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... t-of-time/

Ireland has been desperately unlucky.

The bond crisis is snowballing out of control before the country has had enough time to let its medical, pharma, IT, and financial services industries (don’t laugh, some of it is doing well) come to the rescue.

Yields on 10-year Irish bonds surged this morning to a post-EMU high of 7.41pc.

Yes, Ireland is fully-funded until April – and has another €12bn in pension reserves that could be tapped in extremis – but that is less reassuring than it looks. The spreads over German Bunds are mimicking the action seen in Greece in the final hours before the dam broke.

Once a confidence crisis takes root in this fashion it starts to contaminate everything, as we are seeing in punitive borrowing costs for Irish banks.

The uber-strong euro does not help. Under the IMF’s rule of thumb, currencies should fall by 1.1pc to offset every 1pc of GDP in fiscal tightening, ceteris paribus. Given that Ireland is going through the most wrenching fiscal squeeze ever conducted in a modern economy – though Greece is catching up – it needs a devaluation to match. Instead, the euro has risen by 18pc against the dollar since June. (less in trade-weighted terms).

UCD professor Karl Whelan, a former Fed economist, told me this morning that there is a “reasonably high probability” that Ireland will have to turn to the EU-IMF even though this will be resisted until the bitter end as a horrible humiliation.

The Fianna Fail government has one last chance to avoid tutelage. He advises draconian cuts of €7bn when the 2011 budget is unveiled in coming days, rather than the €3bn previously agreed.

Irelands problems continue...

[emordnilap]

Cabrone, which one of us is right here? Things start to get confusing with all this talk of billions etc.

For starters, a billion = a million millions or a 1 with 12 zeroes after it. (The cheapskate Yanks like to have only 9 zeroes for a billion)

According to the IMF, the republic of Ireland currently owes $2,131,267 million.

That's $2,131,267,000,000 in 'external debt', or $2.13 billion in our 'billions'.

Therefore, that's 1% of GDP. Where are your or I out here?

How did a country of 4.5 million rack up such a collosal debt?

Some individuals racked up millions and millions in debt. One local fellah has around 70 million euro in debt. Only a hundred or so of them equals nearly a billion.

Edit: I see one place I'm wrong - the gdp in Wikipedia is in thousand millions, not million millions. I wish there was adherence to standards.

[adam2]

A billion is generally understood to be a thousand million, not a million million.
Our government use it thus, reffering for example to the spending of £500,000 as "half a billion" EDIT FOR TYPO

What I should have said was, the spending of 500 million pounds, 500, 000,000 is often refered to as "half a billion"