PowerSwitch

This may be surprising to some, but having done alot of reading and thinking recently (being unemployed has its advantages ) I am now more optimistic about our future.

I hear some of you thinking, 'why on earth do you think that my Lordship?'.

Well, barring a sudden collapse of the system, which on the basis that the powers-to-be are clearly thinking about PO and the potential financial chaos (see the recent German military report on PO) the TPTB are preparing contingency plans on dealing with the financial aftershocks of PO.

In other words, they won't let the financial system go down... using perception management, covert opps and the Plunge Protection Team (PTT).

Secondly, I have adjusted my outlook on the potential of new technology to mitigate the oil demand picture - if electric cars replace oil powered cars, than, once rolled through the industrialised world, will seriously reduce global oil demand. Deutsche Bank are right, America wastes a huge amount of oil and once they get serious about demand destruction, combined with the Iraqi cheap oil bonunza (which could postpone PO for 10 years) and the shale gas/other oil stuff - this has the potential to keep BAU going for the medium term.

Regarding BAU - its clear that higher prices of oil will eventually force a sustained government led drive away from fossil fuels -so within this decade - BAU will become greening BAU. The system survives but starts to shift away from carbon to low carbon and non-carbon sources.

This is a massive shift which will take decades. Some countries won't make it, due to poor governance, poverty and lack of resources. There will be regions that for different reasons will go through a collapse and even mini-die-ofs - primarily in northern Africa (due to water scarcity) and parts of south-east Asia.

However, I am cautiously optimistic that the bulk of the world can survive the worst case predictions. There is a big hedge though, any large scale terrorism, war or pandemic could destabilise regions which might in other conditions survive the challenges in the coming decades.

India-Pakistan are a clear example - a growing region but very easily destablised.

However, even if certain regions in South Asia or the Middle East (like Iran) go through disorder (or worse) this does not mean the rest of the world is doomed, as these regional disorders are contained.

Longer term, technologies are emerging which could eventually replace fossil fuels (principly biotechnologies) but this is still decades away. Until than, natural gas, coal and nuclear are going to be the transitional energy sources to sustain us during the Long Emergency.

Regarding renewables, yes in the longer term, they could replace fossil fuels but we are going to have to wait for the next generation to emerge, when the synergies of nano and bio fuse together to create space solar power and the mass diffusion of mirco-renewable systems through the bio techno revolution.

I do not pretend that the coming decades will be easier, they will be extreme tough for some parts of the world, for others life will become more of a grind, but there will also be parts of the world which will continue to modernise, harness the emerging technologies and continue to progress. Peak Oil doesn't necessarily mean the end of civilisation. Yes some parts of the world will de-industrialise but the transition very much depends on society. Assuming we don't panic, we don't rule out the potential for science to help us and most importantly we focus on finding a more sustainable way of living life, it shouldn't be too bad.

I can't remember where I got this quote from but, upon reading your thread title it reminded me of it:

"The future is dark. Then I took my shades off."

Seriously though, when I first became PO aware my initial reaction was: "Ye gods, we're doomed." After immersing myself in all the available information, both for and against PO, I came to realise that arriving at the global peak in production vs demand, wasn't as significant as when we arrived at the end of the plateau and started on the serious decline side.

For me, the real test is to extend the plateau for as long as possible so we can transition as smoothly as possible by giving as much time as we can for emerging technologies to be tested, refined (no pun intended, honest guv'nor) and put in place.

Interesting.

Guys, don't worry. Apparently God has it well covered.

I have it on good authority. LOL.

And I thought the future so bright I've got to wear shades - Timbuk 3.

Timbuk 3... I take it that is better by a factor of one on Timbuktu ? Nice.

So,LB3, you've taken your shades off and replaced them with rose tinters?

Once I came to accept that God was in charge of everything and realised that peak oil was a crock I became a lot more positive. Give it a try guys.



Have faith.

Just around the corner is a new panacea. So, no problemo.

Good to hear some people on here are feeling positive as well.

Lord Beria3 wrote:I hear some of you thinking, 'why on earth do you think that my Lordship?'.

Not what I was thinking. I was thinking "Thank God one of the best brains of this or any generation has applied his considerable knowledge and years of experience to attend to this important problem."

We can rest easy at night now.

Lord Beria3 wrote:
In other words, they won't let the financial system go down... using perception management, covert opps and the Plunge Protection Team (PTT).

You're assuming that TPTB are in full control of the financial system. If they were, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in now.

Governments can only manage perceptions so far. I know it's commonly said that the economy is "all about confidence", but that only applies in the short term. Sooner or later, for all the techniques of "perception management" available to TPTB, confidence bumps up against reality. And the reality is that (a) our money system is built on sand and (b) the real economy, in terms of goods produced, can only shrink from here on in.

Ludwig wrote:(a) our money system is built on sand

If only it was. There's plenty of sand. Trouble is the money system is built on oil.

If global demand in oil outpaces supply shrinkage (through new technology, substitution in natural gas and other forms of energy and conservation) than there is still room for growth in the world economy.

It may be anemic growth in the developed West, but as long as capital can find good returns in the emerging worlds (BRICs, and Africa) than the global financial system can survive - at least in the medium term in its current form.

However, i do agree that we are in a massively choppy ride - particularly in the West where are are building up huge soverign debt - despite the austority which will slow the growing debt mountain.

Its important to note that the West is not the world! Go to Asia and they are growing, their economies can better cope with higher oil prices and there is considerable optimism about the future.

The doomerish atmosphere in the West is unique to this area of the world, the rest of the world is pretty happy about their prospects in the future. We in the West are witnessing a decline of the global economic and geopolitical influence in the Euro-American heartland and the rise of the Eastern powers.

As Goldman Sachs notes, emerging mkts are area of huge growth in the coming decade.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca09873c-bb6c ... ab49a.html

China could overtake the US in terms of stock market capitalisation by 2030 as the market value of equities in emerging nations soars, powered by expanding investment and by economic growth, says a report by Goldman Sachs.

In a bullish view of the next two decades, the US investment bank sees the value of the globe’s emerging stock markets rising fivefold to $80,000bn from $14,000bn (in constant US dollars) today, taking the emerging market share of global equity markets from 31 per cent to 55 per cent.

I'm surer about the future too....yup surer and surer

If Asia is able to grow its economy all that will mean is we will have more competition for resources, the Chinese etc will have better equipped army's for the coming resource wars .

We do have some way to go before declining oil supply becomes seriously limiting, if managed sensibly. ie better public transport systems, relocalising our economies and making them less focused on consumption of tat. It'd be hard but doable.

bigjim wrote:We do have some way to go before declining oil supply becomes seriously limiting, if managed sensibly. ie better public transport systems, relocalising our economies and making them less focused on consumption of tat. It'd be hard but doable.

Public transport will be the first thing to go: it's loss-making and only survives thanks to local government subsidies. Bus services from my village have already been drastically reduced.

Ludwig wrote:Public transport will be the first thing to go: it's loss-making and only survives thanks to local government subsidies. Bus services from my village have already been drastically reduced.

It cost me £2.20 return to go into town on the bus the other day. Even with my van that does 28mpg overall, so probably less on a short journey, I reckon it would have cost me about £1.60 for diesel and parking to drive there, and that cost could have been shared with two passengers, saving £5 in total. The bus service is subsidised by the County Council.

Public transport should become more heavily used as people find car ownership more expensive. Whether it survives long enough to reach that stage is a big question though. There's supposed to be a Sunday bus service past my place, but apparently no one will operate it, even though the County Council would support it.